MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Similar to what the gfs originally spit out for the mid Jan event? Surprised to see that -3 at K-Falls yesterday tied a record from 1917. I would have thought their daily record would be a bit colder than that. Pretty weird situation for them to get a record that far south. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 36F with a DP of 34F isn't gonna get it done. It actually shows rain for Eugene, but the precip is focused between Albany and Wilsonville, where it shoes it falling as snow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Pretty weird situation for them to get a record that far south. I think it was just a combo of deep snow cover, clear skies, and a moderately cold airmass. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Which is exactly what my original post noted yesterday. The Snoqualmie is a flood prone river too... it does not even show a blip upwards through Tuesday. In fact...its forecasted to drop a little. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Randy... your c-zone snowstorm is pretty close per the radar! Prime time is supposed to be coming soon. Needs to shift a little south. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The Snoqualmie is a flood prone river too... it does not even show a blip upwards through Tuesday. In fact...its forecasted to drop a little. Okay. You win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Similar to what the gfs originally spit out for the mid Jan event? The thing that was striking about the ECMWF weeklies today was how much better they looked than the last run. At least right now the model is seeing something promising. Hopefully this will continue to show up. As I've always pointed out cold Februaries come in bunches. 4 in a row would be pushing it though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days.I totally agree the cold signal is there. Might know more in 2 weeks! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Didn’t the weeklies before last show persistent cold with the REAL real deal showing up in early February? Also... lost in the midst of all these February preparations is the fact PDX is down the 36. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days. If it was just the control I would be suspicious, but the mean is pretty nice at the same time. A strong signal for being that far out. BTW the nice trough from the control that was posted on here is only one of there of four major cold shots shown by that model. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Didn’t the weeklies before last show persistent cold with the REAL real deal showing up in early February? Also... lost in the midst of all these February preparations is the fact PDX is down the 36. No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.Maybe it was 2 weeks ago... but recently it showed persistent cold for 6 weeks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.I could have sworn just a couple weeks ago they were jaw-droppingly cold heading into early February... February. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The thing that was striking about the ECMWF weeklies today was how much better they looked than the last run. At least right now the model is seeing something promising. Hopefully this will continue to show up. As I've always pointed out cold Februaries come in bunches. 4 in a row would be pushing it though. One could argue February 2017 was not that great regionally. It had the early month event at SEA and got chilly late in the month, but for W. Oregon it was barely below average. More notable for being extremely wet than anything else. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 CFS shows cold arriving February 10. 3 more weeks y’all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days. I don't think it's a huge threat--but between now and Saturday night, there may be issues. That's all I said. It was poo-pooed as a non-issue, so I linked the NWS headline--which discussed the possibility. He's very intelligent and he knows is stuff--but there are people who have knowledge to share--and their comments should not be summarily dismissed which is why I posted the headline. Back to my regularly scheduled programming... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Randy... your c-zone snowstorm is pretty close per the radar! Prime time is supposed to be coming soon. Needs to shift a little south.Just a light snow at the moment. 31.8 degrees. C’MON! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just a light snow at the moment. 31.8 degrees. C’MON! OK ROB. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I had .56” of snow melt today! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 OK ROB.Someone has to say it in his absence! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 #pray4rob Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 CFS shows cold arriving February 10. 3 more weeks y’all! You were not kidding. SCORE! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I don't think it's a huge threat--but between now and Saturday night, there may be issues. That's all I said. It was poo-pooed as a non-issue, so I linked the NWS headline--which discussed the possibility. He's very intelligent and he knows is stuff--but there are people who have knowledge to share--and their comments should not be summarily dismissed which is why I posted the headline. Back to my regularly scheduled programming... Its just that a blanket statement that flooding will be a concern is sort of misleading... sounds like we are going into a very wet pattern with river flooding which does happen fairly often when we come out of a cold and snowy pattern. This is quite different. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Its just that a blanket statement that flooding will be a concern is sort of misleading... sounds like we are going into a very wet pattern with river flooding which does happen fairly often when we come out of a cold and snowy pattern. This is quite different. I mean...the NWS did highlight the possibility-- I think he was just trying to address that discussion. Probably not going to be much. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I mean...the NWS did highlight the possibility-- I think he was just trying to address that discussion. Probably not going to be much.That is the most flood prone river in WA... and this short precip event is focused right on its basin. I think its worth mentioning there is absolutely no threat for the vast majority of rivers in WA for the foreseeable future. Not even a rise in river levels. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LaPineLurker Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The Tolt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Skokomish. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The Tolt? 69 posts. Nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The Tolt?The SkokoDomeBuster River. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Its just that a blanket statement that flooding will be a concern is sort of misleading... sounds like we are going into a very wet pattern with river flooding which does happen fairly often when we come out of a cold and snowy pattern. This is quite different.Think some areas will need to be concerned about flooding on Friday into Saturday. Very significant rise in snow levels. May even rain at Snoqualmie unless that east wind keeps it cold enough. My original post is above. Not sure how you thought it was a blanket statement. You make it sound like I thought everyone was going to flood--which, as evidenced by the foregoing, was never said. Again, you win. Congrats!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 More snow tonight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Think some areas will need to be concerned about flooding on Friday into Saturday. Very significant rise in snow levels. May even rain at Snoqualmie unless that east wind keeps it cold enough. My original post is above. Not sure how you thought it was a blanket statement. You make it sound like I thought everyone was going to flood--which, as evidenced by the foregoing, was never said. Again, you win. Congrats!!!! And the NWS mentioned it in their hydrology section. This is just silly-- no one said widespread flooding and it's worth noting what the NWS says even if it just won't happen (according to some). 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 You know, if there had actually been an NWS contact he might have come out of this whole thing looking pretty smart. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.Winter is over for you guys 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 That blob of moisture is 5-10miles too far north. I’m screwed, it’s getting wasted on the heat flats of Skagit. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Think some areas will need to be concerned about flooding on Friday into Saturday. Very significant rise in snow levels. May even rain at Snoqualmie unless that east wind keeps it cold enough. My original post is above. Not sure how you thought it was a blanket statement. You make it sound like I thought everyone was going to flood--which, as evidenced by the foregoing, was never said. Again, you win. Congrats!!!!It rains all the time at Snoqualmie in the winter without river flooding. By time the snow levels rise on Sunday... its basically dry. My point is that saying flooding is going to become a concern is a little misleading. Its very localized in one area based on one short event. And that river floods floods every time someone sneezes. The NWS has to highlight it... it's in their coverage area. But flooding is not a concern at all for the vast majority of the region. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Wow there is some major black ice forming out there tonight. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Its Snowing! At least for a bit, hit and miss kinda night, but this could work out towards morning with a big enough cell, usually does in this type of setup!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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