March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 5-10 day mean:

 

[Phil]

I'm very pleased with the pattern being shown. Has a very old school look to it. If we can score the kind of Nina the CFS is predicting we could have some real fun coming up over the next year. The solar aspect is getting nearly jaw dropping now.

A stronger niña is less likely to produce a blocky outcome given the QBO progression. See 2007/08.

 

It’s not impossible for a blocky winter in a Niña/-QBO, but a weaker ENSO would be preferable. Though keep in mind, it’s not even a given that ENSO will be negative to begin with. The CFS is a huge outlier right now and there are inhibiting factors for La Niña development despite the IPWP appearing to consolidate equatorward.

[TacomaWaWx]

51 and mostly cloudy in Tacoma. Haven’t had any rainfall this month just drizzle so far.

[ShawniganLake]

The EPS is NOT on board.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS is NOT on board.

 

 

No idea why its being ignored.    I guess some people just like the fantasy.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Not seeing this... the 850mb temp loop shows the bulk of the cold air heading south at day 10.   

 

Not that it matters because it will change several more times.

 

yeah...still not seeing anything interesting below 1000’ in the foreseeable future.

[ShawniganLake]

No idea why its being ignored. I guess some people just like the fantasy.

Could happen. But I agree the odds of some notable continental air seems relatively low.

[TT-SEA]

A stronger niña is less likely to produce a blocky outcome given the QBO progression. See 2007/08.

 

It’s not impossible for a blocky winter in a Niña/-QBO, but a weaker ENSO would be preferable. Though keep in mind, it’s not even a given that ENSO will be negative to begin with. The CFS is a huge outlier right now and there are inhibiting factors for La Niña development despite the IPWP appearing to consolidate equatorward.

 

This is your strong suit... much better than silly trolling.    

 

I really appreciate this Phil because you provide non-biased information on the macro level stuff that is very helpful.  

[Phil]

Lol, there won’t be any Arctic front with that cold pool contained within a +2SD fully coupled polar vortex smack dab over the central Arctic basin.

 

Something has to dislodge it. A quick jab and cross from the wavetrain ain’t gonna do it.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

51 and partly sunny here... a nice break in the rain this afternoon.

[Skagit Weather]

What station do you have?

 

I have the Davis Vantage Pro 2. Going on a healthy 12 years of service now, but I had to replace the Data Logger in December because it was struggling.

[Omegaraptor]

57 at PDX and 58 at HIO.

[GHweatherChris]

Mood moderator is in full force today in here, geeze.

[TT-SEA]

Mood moderator is in full force today in here, geeze.

 

Geese?

[Deweydog]

I saw geese flying SOUTH a couple days ago.

 

Weird year.

[Omegaraptor]

[MossMan]

I saw geese flying SOUTH a couple days ago.

 

Weird year.

Bird flu.

[High Desert Mat?]

Holy crap! The 12z ECMWF is fantastic at day 10.

Dude, that’ll be mid March. What a waste. Let’s just get warm now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

61F in town.  Beautiful day again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking forward to cold troughing this weekend and likely on and off through mid-month. Of course there will not be snow below 1000', but I will enjoy anything we may get. Looks like another dry month on tap, but not too warm. That will make 5 out of the past 6 months dry REGIONALLY.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like a long period of chilly weather coming up.  Hopefully we can get something noteworthy.

[snow_wizard]

A stronger niña is less likely to produce a blocky outcome given the QBO progression. See 2007/08.

 

It’s not impossible for a blocky winter in a Niña/-QBO, but a weaker ENSO would be preferable. Though keep in mind, it’s not even a given that ENSO will be negative to begin with. The CFS is a huge outlier right now and there are inhibiting factors for La Niña development despite the IPWP appearing to consolidate equatorward.

 

Fair enough.  I kind of feel like we are owed a really blocky winter after this one being so atypical for a deep solar min.  It will be very interesting to see what happens with ENSO.

[snow_wizard]

Looking forward to cold troughing this weekend and likely on and off through mid-month. Of course there will not be snow below 1000', but I will enjoy anything we may get. Looks like another dry month on tap, but not too warm. That will make 5 out of the past 6 months dry REGIONALLY.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about no snow below 1000'.

[snow_wizard]

1951, 1955, and 1985 all coming up as analogs.  Very cold / interesting years.  1951 was a ridiculously gorgeous spring, but with very late and frequent heavy frost.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't be so sure about no snow below 1000'.

 

Tim says no snow below 10,000'. 

[TT-SEA]

Tim says no snow below 10,000'. 

 

 

Yeah... did not say that.   

 

I have been pretty reasonable with my input.

[MossMan]

Bet I see sticking snow at some point this month.

[TT-SEA]

Bet I see sticking snow at some point this month.

 

That is like 100% guaranteed.  

[Omegaraptor]

Fair enough.  I kind of feel like we are owed a really blocky winter after this one being so atypical for a deep solar min.  It will be very interesting to see what happens with ENSO.

 

Well we certainly did see blockiness in late September and October. Only problem is that the PV screwed everything up afterward.

 

If we can stay ENSO-neutral as Phil says we'll be in a great position next winter. I've heard this solar minimum will last a decent amount of time.

[MossMan]

.23” so far on the day.

[Omegaraptor]

Glad to see the GFS ensembles looking wetter in the long range. Been rather dry for a while now and the mountains could definitely use extra snow. 

 

Wetter down in CA too.

[Jesse]

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PDX hit 90 60.

Four degrees colder than your fantasy climate March average high.

[Jesse]

Pretty nice day with partial sunshine and some puffy clouds around. 59/47 here.

[Front Ranger]

How does the EPS look?

[Jesse]

How does the EPS look?

It looks like it’s been wet north and east of Seattle recently.

[MossMan]

How does the EPS look?

100,000’ snow levels.

[Front Ranger]

Well we certainly did see blockiness in late September and October. Only problem is that the PV screwed everything up afterward.

 

If we can stay ENSO-neutral as Phil says we'll be in a great position next winter. I've heard this solar minimum will last a decent amount of time.

 

Didn't you get the memo? This past winter completely and utterly disproved all solar related correlations.

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.03” today so we’ve now had rainfall for March.