March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[FroYoBro]

Stupid comment.

 

It does not matter much to me... snow melts fast in mid-March.

 

If the EPS shows it then I will start believing it might happen.

Stupid comment.

 

 

Everyone knows how inaccurate the EPS is.

[Jesse]

I’m glad someone is keeping tabs on stupid comments around here.

[TT-SEA]

Stupid comment.

 

 

Everyone knows how inaccurate the EPS is.

 

 

Yeah... no.

 

The only time it locked in all winter is when it actually happened for at least part of the region.

[Jesse]

Tonight could be frosty for many.

[Front Ranger]

I’m glad someone is keeping tabs on stupid comments around here.

Not an easy job.

[Omegaraptor]

Just saw the first bee of 2020!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS just finished loading on WB... definitely colder in the 10-15 day range.    

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[TT-SEA]

Just saw the first bee of 2020!

 

 

There were bees in our yard last week... probably active today as well.  

 

Nice to see.   

[Omegaraptor]

 

 

Current state of cherry blossoms.

[FroYoBro]

1837204F-D705-45BB-8158-9A16F443D4CB.jpeg

 

64FB6C5F-EBD6-4A51-A8F7-1C72D45EB3B1.jpeg

 

Current state of cherry blossoms.

 

Pretty stupid comment. 

[Jesse]

[Phil]

OMG 18z GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the ensembles are taking a step back.

[Deweydog]

Alaska.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Alaska.

 

Coldest winter in Fairbanks since 1999.

[Deweydog]

Coldest winter in Fairbanks since 1999.

They should party like it’s 2020.

 

But skip the abuse of prescription medication...

[Timmy Supercell]

It's March 4th and my windows are open 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

1837204F-D705-45BB-8158-9A16F443D4CB.jpeg

 

64FB6C5F-EBD6-4A51-A8F7-1C72D45EB3B1.jpeg

 

Current state of cherry blossoms.

 

Nice pics. In a few weeks some of the downtown trees in KF will start doing that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day

[Jesse]

Nice day

You know what. It was nice Andrew. It was nice.

[Jesse]

55/37 here with mostly sunny conditions. Pretty day out.

[Timmy Supercell]

63/18. Having some dejavu here.. 63. 18. Familiar.

[Deweydog]

May the 4th be with you!

[Timmy Supercell]

May the 4th be with you!

 

My gif is from a storm dated May 4th in 2016 

[Jesse]

Got some pics of the SHOCKINGLY early cherry/plum tree bloom around town today.



They always look very pretty against a clear blue sky.

[Jesse]

[MossMan]

0.00” of rainfall today...Incredible!

[TacomaWaWx]

0.00” of rainfall today...Incredible!

we’ve had 0.04” this month so far.

[snow_wizard]

It certinly appears there is growing potential for a very rare post March 10 Arctic outbreak.  We have now had three consecutive ECMWF operational runs showing the classic Arctic outbreak pattern late in the run and the 12z EPS was worlds better than previous runs.  The scope and intensity of the blocking progged over the GOA / Aleutians is exceptional on all recent GFS runs as well.  The feature that seems to be sealing the deal on the ECMWF is the cutoff low that develops NW of Hawaii early next week.  A feature that has been absent on some GFS runs, but shows up well on the 12z EPS.

 

If the details go perfectly with this an historic event is pretty possible.  Even with details just going somewhat well we could easily see a week of -4 to -7F temperature departures.  Going to be fun to see how things look in a couple of days.

 

In the shorter term even the cold snap this weekend and early next week looks pretty nippy with some lowland snow a good possibility.

[MossMan]

we’ve had 0.04” this month so far.

I’ve had 1.70” so far for the month.

[Jesse]

I’ve had 1.70” so far for the month.

Hmmm...you must live in a wet spot. Tell us more!

 

Hopefully we can get the groundskeeper at the Hoh Ranger station to start chiming in from time to time too.

[snow_wizard]

This is just to show what is possible post March 10 and that we can get a real event that late.  Very luckily an observer kept records in Seattle (on the shores of Lake Washington) for parts of 1870 and 1871.  They captured the most insane late cold and snow event for this area going back to at least 1850.  It simply amazes me a location right on Lake Washington was able to drop to 14 so deep into March.  For protected areas away from the water single digits would have been inevitable with this.  I also have records for San Juan Island for March 1870 and they had one day during the event with a 2pm temperature of 17F!

[MossMan]

Hmmm...you must live in a wet spot. Tell us more!

 

Hopefully we can get the groundskeeper at the Hoh Ranger station to start chiming in from time to time too.

Tell you more...Hmmm...My ground is soggy.

[Jesse]

This is just to show what is possible post March 10 and that we can get a real event that late.  Very luckily an observer kept records in Seattle (on the shores of Lake Washington) for parts of 1870 and 1871.  They captured the most insane late cold and snow event for this area going back to at least 1850.  It simply amazes me a location right on Lake Washington was able to drop to 14 so deep into March.  For protected areas away from the water single digits would have been inevitable with this.  I also have records for San Juan Island for March 1870 and they had one day during the event with a 2pm temperature of 17F!

You’re gonna freak the kid out.

[Deweydog]

[snow_wizard]

You’re gonna freak the kid out.

 

He needs to learn sometime!  One of the things I like about this climate is it's ability to do a jaw dropper every so often.  A major cold snap after the first week of March would be a personal first for me.  Let's hope it happens!

[Timmy Supercell]

I don't think I remember any arctic blasts in March even in this area. Would be something different to have.

 

I've had a couple snowy Marches but really cold highs?

[Omegaraptor]

It certinly appears there is growing potential for a very rare post March 10 Arctic outbreak.  We have now had three consecutive ECMWF operational runs showing the classic Arctic outbreak pattern late in the run and the 12z EPS was worlds better than previous runs.  The scope and intensity of the blocking progged over the GOA / Aleutians is exceptional on all recent GFS runs as well.  The feature that seems to be sealing the deal on the ECMWF is the cutoff low that develops NW of Hawaii early next week.  A feature that has been absent on some GFS runs, but shows up well on the 12z EPS.

 

If the details go perfectly with this an historic event is pretty possible.  Even with details just going somewhat well we could easily see a week of -4 to -7F temperature departures.  Going to be fun to see how things look in a couple of days.

 

In the shorter term even the cold snap this weekend and early next week looks pretty nippy with some lowland snow a good possibility.

 

Certainly encouraging to see the recent Euro runs. However, we all know how every long range promise of snow has worked out this winter.

 

The GFS does seem to show the stratospheric PV moving from Alaska to north-central Canada in long range, as Phil was talking about. At that point, a dynamic FW could make a late season blast happen. Although not likely, it is a possibility.

 

Let's watch the models closely over the next several days and see what happens. I'm not too knowledgeable on how PSCZs work, do you think this weekend's trough has potential to form one?

[Omegaraptor]

00z GFS is running!

[SouthHillFrosty]

GFS GFS GFS GFS