March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

22° Halo!!

[jakeinthevalley]

Hmmm...you must live in a wet spot. Tell us more!

 

The groundskeeper there has a degree in hydrology, not agronomy.

 

Little known fact is that he is the grandson of Carl Spackler

 

Hopefully we can get the groundskeeper at the Hoh Ranger station to start chiming in from time to time too.

[TT-SEA]

He needs to learn sometime! One of the things I like about this climate is it's ability to do a jaw dropper every so often. A major cold snap after the first week of March would be a personal first for me. Let's hope it happens!

I get it... that is amazing for this climate. But honestly I would be more impressed with the 60s and even a day into the low 70s to end the month.

[TT-SEA]

Also we have had like half a foot of snow here 2 or 3 times in April in my area since we moved here... so I guess I just expect shots of winter through March.

[TT-SEA]

18Z was blip... as usual the 00Z comes back around to the 12Z solution.

[TT-SEA]

Cool halo around the moon tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

18Z was blip... as usual the 00Z comes back aeound to the 12Z solution.

18z wasn't really even that impressive looking either.

[TT-SEA]

18z wasn't really even that impressive looking either.

00Z is way colder... even colder than the 12Z run. 18Z was a warm blip.

[GHweatherChris]

00Z is way colder... even colder than the 12Z run. 18Z was a warm blip.

Lol, guess I should pay more attention to the model runs.

[GHweatherChris]

Cool halo around the moon tonight.

The 22° Halo tonight can be a precursor to cold and stormy according to folklore.

[TacomaWaWx]

If the euro at day 10 verified that would be pretty impressive considering it would be mid March. It’s too bad we’re talking about day 10 though.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol, guess I should pay more attention to the model runs.

It’s been hard to pay close attention to them recently honestly. Hasn’t been all that exciting recently.

[Omegaraptor]

It’s been hard to pay close attention to them recently honestly. Hasn’t been all that exciting recently.

 

00z GFS actually has some continental cold with a big GoA ridge and SE ridge.

 

Let me know when it's still showing the same thing at 96 hours.

[TacomaWaWx]

00z GFS actually has some continental cold with a big GoA ridge and SE ridge.

 

Let me know when it's still showing the same thing at 96 hours.

It would be cool if there was a decent late season snow event that ended up saving this winter. In 07/08 we didn’t get much snow here in Tacoma but then we ended up with 3” in mid April 2008. It was the biggest snowfall of the season here. Sometimes the unexpected does happen.

[GHweatherChris]

00z GFS looks great for this weekend, definitely shows a good chance of lowland snow.

[Omegaraptor]

Ensembles show a pretty nice dip.

 

Phil?

[Phil]

00z GFS actually has some continental cold with a big GoA ridge and SE ridge.

 

Let me know when it's still showing the same thing at 96 hours.

The progression leading to the eventual amplification of the GOA high on some of these models runs is analogous to a house of cards. Sucks to be a debbie downer, but this one could collapse in the blink of an eye. Everything has to go right this time.

[Phil]

It’s not impossible, but...I’m straining to make this one work in my head.

 

Doesn’t mean I’m correct, though.

[seattleweatherguy]

The progression leading to the eventual amplification of the GOA high on some of these models runs is analogous to a house of cards. Sucks to be a debbie downer, but this one could collapse in the blink of an eye. Everything has to go right this time.

So your telling me there’s a chance.......Yeah!

[Jesse]

The progression leading to the eventual amplification of the GOA high on some of these models runs is analogous to a house of cards. Sucks to be a debbie downer, but this one could collapse in the blink of an eye. Everything has to go right this time.

 

So this isn't a regional slam dunk like January? Hmmmmm.....I am intrigued. 

[TT-SEA]

Tell you more...Hmmm...My ground is soggy.

 

 

Jesse is a smart guy and yet plays so dumb with this stuff.

 

The average rainfall in March in Sedro Wooley just to your north and inland a little more is 4.32 inches... the average rainfall in March in Arlington just to your south is 4.45 inches.  The average rainfall at PDX in March 3.77 inches.

 

He implies that you live in the Hoh rainforest... when in reality the averages are not that different.     What actually happened is another repeat of the NW flow precip pattern which focuses the rain on your area and out to my area and all of the central and north Cascades and adjacent foothills.   

 

Instead of acknowledging that reality... he mocks you for reporting actual rainfall.   The same areas continue to be more anomalously wet than other areas overall.     Its a fact that I think all of us would like to change.    Nature can be a b*tch.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF shows a little snow for Saturday... probably in the form of hail or ice pellets in convective showers.

 

 

 

It also shows a decent amount of sun in between the showers with highs in the mid 40s...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00Z ECMWF shows a little snow for Saturday... probably in the form of hail or ice pellets in convective showers.

 

 

 

It also shows a decent amount of sun in between the showers with highs in the mid 40s...

 

 

That is about 8-9 degrees below average for highs down here. Very chilly airmass. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse is a smart guy and yet plays so dumb with this stuff.

 

The average rainfall in March in Sedro Wooley just to your north and inland a little more is 4.32 inches... the average rainfall in March in Arlington just to your south is 4.45 inches.  The average rainfall at PDX in March 3.77 inches.

 

He implies that you live in the Hoh rainforest... when in reality the averages are not that different.     What actually happened is another repeat of the NW flow precip pattern which focuses the rain on your area and out to my area and all of the central and north Cascades and adjacent foothills.   

 

Instead of acknowledging that reality... he mocks you for reporting actual rainfall.   The same areas continue to be more anomalously wet than other areas overall.     Its a fact that I think all of us would like to change.    Nature can be a b*tch.

 

0.17" of rain here this month so far. We average a little over 9" in March!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. Exciting 00z run and the ensembles are tremendous. Praying we can get some snow this month. This weekend will probably be to dry, but should be chilly! 

[TT-SEA]

0.17" of rain here this month so far. We average a little over 9" in March!

 

Yep... same areas wetter than normal and same areas drier than normal.    

[TT-SEA]

That is about 8-9 degrees below average for highs down here. Very chilly airmass. 

 

Yeah... its 5 or 6 degrees below normal up here.    Although the Seattle area will probably be close to 50 with any meaningful sun (normal high is about 53 now).

[GHweatherChris]

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah... its probably 5 or 6 degrees below normal up here.    Although the Seattle area will probably be close to 50 with any meaningful sun (normal high is about 53 now).

 

Last year right around this time Portland had two highs in the low 40s under full sunshine. There was a very strong easterly gradient and the Columbia Basin was an ice bath. RH values were at like 25% as well.

 

We really haven't had much at all this season as far as east winds go.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday - Tuesday period is totally dry per the 00Z ECMWF.    We turn the clocks ahead this weekend so maybe some yard work even on week day evenings when its nice starting next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday - Tuesday period is totally dry per the 00Z ECMWF.    We turn the clocks ahead this weekend so maybe some yard work even on week day evenings when its nice starting next week.

 

Might want to wear a jacket though! It will be chilly most places, though probably not the Shangri-La that is North Bend. 

[TT-SEA]

Might want to wear a jacket though! It will be chilly most places, though probably not the Shangri-La that is North Bend. 

 

I am well aware that its chilly in the evening in March.    Dry with evening daylight will be a huge improvement.   

 

Its been as wet to this point in the year as its ever been in this area in the last century.   No joke... just a fact.

[GHweatherChris]

I am well aware that its chilly in the evening in March. Dry with evening daylight will be a huge improvement.

 

Its been as wet to this point in the year as its ever been in this area in the last century. No joke... just a fact.

He didn't say anything about precip, why the extra comment?

[TT-SEA]

He didn't say anything about precip, why the extra comment?

 

Because we are itching for both dry weather and daylight after work so we can get some yard work done... and won't care if its chilly.    

[Jesse]

Smart comments.

[TT-SEA]

Smart comments.

 

Like mocking Randy when he is reporting actual rainfall?   Dumb comment.

 

Not his fault that nature keeps doing this... it has nothing to do with him living in the Hoh rainforest.  

 

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is much more tame with the cold.    

[Deweydog]

[Phil]