March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The trough late next week is an eye opener. 

[Omegaraptor]

The weekend trough is not that interesting. Not much moisture after the cold air moves in. Maybe an inch or two of snow up here this weekend if we get lucky. I will enjoy it though if it happens. 

 

Saturday and Sunday should both be excellent for skiing.

[TT-SEA]

The trough late next week is an eye opener. 

 

 

If it even happens... here was the 00Z EPS mean at day 10:

 

[snow_wizard]

No, he will stop posting again by then.

 

Historically it can snow in March here, though, which in and of itself is kind of upsetting. You are probably too young to remember March 2012 but it snowed and stuck here on the spring equinox, and PDX had a high in the 30s. But I wouldn't let that tummy ache get too bad since that *probably* wont happen this year.

 

We had a post equinox snowfall here in 2008 also.  In fact places north of here had major snow in April that year.  At any rate the 12z GFS was really cold.

 

I'm not so sure I will step away from the forum this year.  I really like the big picture.

[snow_wizard]

The trough late next week is an eye opener. 

 

It sure is.  The 6z almost got there with that one and this run did get there.  It kind of makes sense we are seeing the potential for unseasonably big stuff again after the craziness we had very early in the season.  Whatever kept the core of the winter from being able to deliver doesn't hold so much power on the book ends.

[Jesse]

We had a post equinox snowfall here in 2008 also.  In fact places north of here had major snow in April that year.  At any rate the 12z GFS was really cold.

 

I'm not so sure I will step away from the forum this year.  I really like the big picture.

 

Glad to hear that. As long as you can withstand frequent snipes from a 17 year old with limited knowledge of our climate you should be fine.

[TT-SEA]

It sure is.  The 6z almost got there with that one and this run did get there.  It kind of makes sense we are seeing the potential for unseasonably big stuff again after the craziness we had very early in the season.  Whatever kept the core of the winter from being able to deliver doesn't hold so much power on the book ends.

 

 

Except it hasn't happened yet.   

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS still shows the nasty +AO late in the run.  If we can crash that thing we may even have something interesting as late as early April.  I would love to see one of the classic springs we used to have with hard frosts well into May and lighter frosts into June.  Not saying that will happen, but I would love it!

[snow_wizard]

Glad to hear that. As long as you can withstand frequent snipes from a 17 year old with limited knowledge of our climate you should be fine.

 

I'm used to it.  I have weathered the likes of Brian Faluni and even TT when he was a bit meaner in the old days.  People like Brian Faluni are a once in lifetime thing though.  The tales about him on other forums are legend!  

[Jesse]

I'm used to it.  I have weathered the likes of Brian Faluni and even TT when he was a bit meaner in the old days.  People like Brian Faluni are a once in lifetime thing though.  The tales about him on other forums are legend!  

 

I haven't heard too much about Brian Faluni. Did he ever have an account here?

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS shows the mountains doing quite well over the next 7-10 days.

 

I'm very pleased with the pattern being shown.  Has a very old school look to it.  If we can score the kind of Nina the CFS is predicting we could have some real fun coming up over the next year.  The solar aspect is getting nearly jaw dropping now.

[snow_wizard]

I haven't heard too much about Brian Faluni. Did he ever have an account here?

 

Yup.  He was here around the time I introduced my EO index.  Even TT chewed out Faluni for being so combative about that.

 

As an aside I still think that index has some relevance.  It's just basically an index that shows the relationship between Equatorial surface pressure anoms and the corresponding effects that has on the potential for blocking at the mid latitudes.  Kind of a cousin of the AO.

[MossMan]

I haven't heard too much about Brian Faluni. Did he ever have an account here?

I vaguely remember him, think he was an east coaster that liked to troll us and thought very highly of himself. I don’t even think he was 18.

[Jesse]

Yup.  He was here around the time I introduced my EO index.  Even TT chewed out Faluni for being so combative about that.

 

As an aside I still think that index has some relevance.  It's just basically an index that shows the relationship between Equatorial surface pressure anoms and the corresponding effects that has on the potential for blocking at the mid latitudes.  Kind of a cousin of the AO.

 

Huh. What was his username. I seem to recall Chris Durkin being pretty relentless with his attacks back in the day, and more recently, Daniel1. Maybe they were both Brian Faluni.

[Jesse]

I vaguely remember him, think he was an east coaster that liked to troll us and thought very highly of himself. I don’t even think he was 18.

 

WestcoastExPat also comes to mind.

[Requiem]

No, he will stop posting again by then.

 

Historically it can snow in March here, though, which in and of itself is kind of upsetting. You are probably too young to remember March 2012 but it snowed and stuck here on the spring equinox, and PDX had a high in the 30s. But I wouldn't let that tummy ache get too bad since that *probably* wont happen this year.

 

I remember at least a foot in the West Hills. Maybe false memories though? Fun event, would love to see it. Cool springs are the best kind of springs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember at least a foot in the West Hills. Maybe false memories though? Fun event, would love to see it. Cool springs are the best kind of springs.

 

It is possible. I had about 20" with that storm. Salem had 4" and Eugene had about 8". 

[Requiem]

Seems like someone's triggered. 

 

What exactly are your weather tastes?

[Jesse]

Look at these ensembles Andrew.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It is possible. I had about 20" with that storm. Salem had 4" and Eugene had about 8". 

 

The only place that didn't have something with that event was Taft in Lincoln City where I was working at the time.

[Jesse]

[snow_wizard]

Look at these ensembles Andrew.

 

A083C65A-ADBF-4681-9DD1-9D4CDF1D24C1.png

 

Looks like trough number 2 is beginning to show up on the ensemble now.  This might get good.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like trough number 2 is beginning to show up on the ensemble now.  This might get good.

 

Those ensembles don't mean much without support from the EPS... as you know.

[ShawniganLake]

WRF is quite snowy for the north sound this weekend

 

 

[MossMan]

WRF is quite snowy for the north sound this weekend

 

 

4F791B93-CD6A-4A39-8FD9-F31C16FB4965.gif

I’m in the dark green!

[Omegaraptor]

What exactly are your weather tastes?

I made a climate box for my ideal climate:

 

 

Plenty of snow in winter but not too much and not too cold. Spring has high thunderstorm activity. Wide diurnal ranges and summer with very warm days and cool nights. Also, almost all of the rain in my ideal climate is moderate to heavy.

 

My old dream climate was just really wet and mild, but I realized there’s a lot more to interesting weather than just very wet.

[ShawniganLake]

I made a climate box for my ideal climate:

 

DA8C438C-9301-4554-928A-868E6258236E.jpeg

 

Plenty of snow in winter but not too much and not too cold. Spring has high thunderstorm activity. Wide diurnal ranges and summer with very warm days and cool nights. Also, almost all of the rain in my ideal climate is moderate to heavy.

 

My old dream climate was just really wet and mild, but I realized there’s a lot more to interesting weather than just very wet.

Move to the Gorge or perhaps western end of the Fraser Canyon. Boston Bar would be close to those numbers.

[Deweydog]

Big test for the FV3 coming up!

[ShawniganLake]

Day 10 looks interesting on the euro. Some snow for BC

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The 12z ECMWF is fantastic at day 10.

[GHweatherChris]

Where is all the warm frontal drizzle that was supposed to last until Wednesday?

[TT-SEA]

Where is all the warm frontal drizzle that was supposed to last until Wednesday?

 

It just stopped drizzling here... looks it might have ended for Randy as well.   It will be back this afternoon though and go through tomorrow morning as the models have shown all along.   

 

Its an extended warm front pattern.    Its exactly as advertised.     Just an observation... its not that unusual.

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap!  The 12z ECMWF is fantastic at day 10.

 

Meh... not that interesting.    And its 10 days out.  EPS has been saying the bulk of the cold air with that next trough will go to the SW and out to sea.

 

[snow_wizard]

The evolution of the ECMWF from day 9 to day 10 is picture perfect.  Looks like an Arctic front will make it well into WA at least as the backwash behind the day 10 low kicks in.  Nice to see the Euro and GFS both showing something good in that period.

[GHweatherChris]

It just stopped drizzling here... looks it might have ended for Randy as well. It will be back this afternoon though and go through tomorrow morning as the models have shown all along.

 

Its an extended warm front pattern. Its exactly as advertised. Just an observation... its not that unusual.

Hasn't drizzled here at all, either been actual rain showers or nothing.

[TT-SEA]

The evolution of the ECMWF from day 9 to day 10 is picture perfect.  Looks like an Arctic front will make it well into WA at least as the backwash behind the day 10 low kicks in.  Nice to see the Euro and GFS both showing something good in that period.

 

Not seeing this... the 850mb temp loop shows the bulk of the cold air heading south at day 10.   

 

Not that it matters because it will change several more times.    

[TT-SEA]

Hasn't drizzled here at all, either been actual rain showers or nothing.

 

Great news!  

[Deweydog]

***ALERT***

[MossMan]

***ALERT***

98.6?

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS says that the chance of an arctic front is pretty low at day 10...