March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Stock market crashing.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Stock market crashing.

It caught the coronavirus.

[Esquimalt]

Was just going to post that about you being buried up there...

 

Unbelievable. 10 inches here

[Jesse]

Very frosty with dense fog out there now. A rarefied combo for this late in the season!

[FroYoBro]

Very frosty with dense fog out there now. A rarefied combo for this late in the season!

Nice. Still completely clear here.

[GHweatherChris]

27 and crispy here.

[ShawniganLake]

27 and frosty

[MossMan]

27.

[Omegaraptor]

HIO got to 27 too.

[Jesse]

I will say, the 06z GFS features the coldest post 3/10 airmass I’ve ever seen modeled around here inside of 240 hours. So that is a win for Jim in a way.

 

March 2002 may have been modeled colder at points but I wasn’t looking at the models back then.

[Jesse]

[BLI snowman]

I will say, the 06z GFS features the coldest post 3/10 airmass I’ve ever seen modeled around here inside of 240 hours. So that is a win for Jim in a way.

 

March 2002 may have been modeled colder at points but I wasn’t looking at the models back then.

 

 

-17C 850mb temps here. Probably some highs near 40.

[Kayla]

Was looking at some historical numbers for the 14th-20th period for out here and if model trends continue we could be nearing March 1906 record cold on at least a couple of days.

 

Is 1906 the gold standard for mid March cold at the PNW sites as well?

[ShawniganLake]

Was looking at some historical numbers for the 15th-20th period for out here and if model trends continue we could be nearing March 1906 record cold on at least a couple of days.

 

Is 1906 the gold standard for mid March cold at the PNW sites as well?

. 1906 was a mild and dry month on the bc coast. A couple frosty mornings in the 10-15th period

[Jesse]

-17C 850mb temps here. Probably some highs near 40.

 

A mid March blast like that is a good example of how we could score a ridiculously late high below 35 with some overruning moisture moving in in its wake.

 

Unfortunately there seems to be pretty good agreement on this being a fairly bone dry pattern progression all around.

[Jesse]

. 1906 was a mild and dry month on the bc coast. A couple frosty mornings in the 10-15th period

 

#shutdown

[BLI snowman]

A mid March blast like that is a good example of how we could score a ridiculously late high below 35 with some overruning moisture moving in in its wake.

 

Unfortunately there seems to be pretty good agreement on this being a fairly bone dry pattern progression all around.

 

I don't think anything is really etched out at the moment.  But all things equal I would prefer cold onshore flow from an excitement standpoint.

[Kayla]

. 1906 was a mild and dry month on the bc coast. A couple frosty mornings in the 10-15th period

 

Looks like Salem AP had a 33/25 day on the 12th which is the record for the day. They also saw double digit negative departures from the 11th-17th so definitely a chilly period.

 

So it would appear the cold reached at least some of the western lowlands.

[Jesse]

Looks like Salem AP had a 33/25 day on the 12th which is the record for the day.

 

So it would appear the cold reached at least some of the western lowlands.

 

Yea there was definitely some historic cold west of the Cascades in March 1906.

[BLI snowman]

. 1906 was a mild and dry month on the bc coast. A couple frosty mornings in the 10-15th period

 

It was more of a backdoor blast which favored Portland, but that airmass certainly wasn't that run-of-the-mill anywhere in the PNW.

 

Downtown Portland was 31/22 on March 12 and had a 4" overrunning snowstorm on the 18th.

 

Downtown Seattle was 34/26 on March 12 and Vancouver, BC was 35/23. Clearbrook, WA (basically Abbotsford) had a low of 10 on March 15.

[Kayla]

It was more of a backdoor blast which favored Portland, but that airmass certainly wasn't that run-of-the-mill anywhere in the PNW.

 

Downtown Portland was 31/22 on March 12 and had a 4" overrunning snowstorm on the 18th.

 

Downtown Seattle was 34/26 on March 12 and Vancouver, BC was 35/23. Clearbrook, WA (basically Abbotsford) had a low of 10 on March 15.

 

Good stuff, thanks.

[BLI snowman]

And to answer your question Kayla, March 1867 and 1870 are still the gold standard for the middle of the month in the region. 1906 is up there though, along with March 1897.

 

March 1847 was apparently pretty nuts as well but there's not a lot of hard data to go around.

[Jesse]

It was more of a backdoor blast which favored Portland, but that airmass certainly wasn't that run-of-the-mill anywhere in the PNW.

 

Downtown Portland was 31/22 on March 12 and had a 4" overrunning snowstorm on the 18th.

 

Downtown Seattle was 34/26 on March 12 and Vancouver, BC was 35/23. Clearbrook, WA (basically Abbotsford) had a low of 10 on March 15.

 

Good month for landscaping on the BC Coust though.

[Kayla]

And to answer your question Kayla, March 1867 and 1870 are still the gold standard for the middle of the month in the region. 1906 is up there though, along with March 1897.

 

March 1847 was apparently pretty nuts as well but there's not a lot of hard data to go around.

 

Cool, thanks. I still wonder about the reliability of pre-1890 data and the measuring/location equipment but that's a whole different story.

[TT-SEA]

You can already tell that the 12Z GFS is going to be much more robust with the Friday ULL compared to the 00Z run.   

[Esquimalt]

You can already tell that the 12Z GFS is going to be much more robust with the Friday ULL compared to the 00Z run.

 

It’s still more east than the euro. For most of us to score that has to change

[ShawniganLake]

Good month for landscaping on the BC Coust though.

My bad. the environment Canada data must be in error. Agassiz is showing highs in the 50s that week. Chilliwack had a high near freezing but 2 days later were near 70 with a low in the teens (which is also likely wrong). Maybe Agassiz got in on some downslope but the whole thing looks kind of erroneous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting talk this morning. 

 

Hit a low of 27 this morning. Currently very foggy on the river in Salem. 

[BLI snowman]

Cool, thanks. I still wonder about the reliability of pre-1890 data and the measuring/location equipment but that's a whole different story.

 

It's fair to speculate a bit about their accuracy, but the anecdotal accounts from both 1867 and 1870 speak to how otherworldly those events were. Portland actually had a 7-8" overrunning snowfall on the 15th in 1870 and Seattle had a few inches as well, probably the latest really significant snow on record in those cities.

[Jesse]

Interesting talk this morning. 

 

Hit a low of 27 this morning. Currently very foggy on the river in Salem. 

 

It's foggy here too Andrew.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

Icon has a overrunning snowstorm for Portland so my hopes and dreams will be shattered.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS not backing down. 

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty insane that the coldest day of the year might be in mid-March.

 

06z GFS was showing a 00z temp of 35 under full sunshine which is incredible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is SLIGHTLY warmer, but still cold. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty insane that the coldest day of the year might be in mid-March.

 

06z GFS was showing a 00z temp of 35 under full sunshine which is incredible.

35 under full sunshine is gonna be tough. Don’t hold your breath.

[Omegaraptor]

35 under full sunshine is gonna be tough. Don’t hold your breath.

 

12z GFS looks like low 40s for the same day.

[BLI snowman]

Icon has a overrunning snowstorm for Portland so my hopes and dreams will be shattered.

 

I don't think you have much to worry about. Your area will probably get something, though.