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June 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Storms literally fell apart just miles from my backyard. Haha! Oh well. Still fun to watch. Getting some darker lower clouds now and the wind went from calm to a bit breezy from the NW. Most of the day it was a breezy SW wind. Fun stuff

 

Edit: I think the boundary is moving through. Just not much action for mby

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I'm on your turf today. Indeed it is miserable.

Last day in Ohio. I leave in the early morning tomorrow. Pretty nice out. 84.0*F.

Mother Nature just zapped the old Sears Tower this morning, yes, I know another corporation bought it and took it over but the name "Willis Tower" doesn't jive with me...

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Hit a toasty 95 degrees today in Omaha, just three degrees short of the daily record high for the day (the record of 98 degrees was set back in 1911). 

 

Not feeling optimistic that we will see much of any thunderstorm activity in the metro area tonight... there's a small chance that a storm could roll through later, however the better chances are off to the north and east as there is currently a severe-warned storm just southeast of Sioux City in Monona County, Iowa. 

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It is now a very warm 80F and a dew pt. of 69F. Ingredients are excellent for severe weather. Storm cells are now in central Wisconsin and headed towards SEMI, especially, towards the northern suburbs, where it is expected to get hi the hardest. Have to make sure I turn on all of my weather notifications tanite.

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Jaster buddy, look out. I think you are in the "Enhanced Risk" for severe weather, which I think might be extended all the way east towards my area as the nite progresses.

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KLNK hit 96 today, dew points were "only" in the mid 60s. Classic summer forecast for the next 7 days. Highs mainly in the 90s with isolated thunderstorm chances. There might be some relief by day 8-10, more so on the GFS than Euro.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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SPC shifted the slight risk zone South as expected.

 

Thought about going out and targeting Lima, but I'm not doing that for a slight risk with very little helicity.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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There was a rather good amount of lightning last night but mostly not real close to me. I did record 0.48” of rain. The official high at GRR yesterday was 86 here at my house I had a high of 88. The current official temperature at GRR is 64 while here at my house it is 62 with a DP of 59.

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Some impressive heat yesterday across the Sub, esp back home...those were some rather large hail stones and strong winds up north in Wisco from the squall line last night.  

 

 

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PHX set an overnight record high low yesterday morning of 87F and today we ONLY dipped down to 89F so far which will likely set another overnight record high low.  Back to Back nights where debris clouds have insulated the heat within the city metro.

 

Edit: Relief is in sight this weekend into next week as we dip into the DOUBLE digits!  That's going to feel MUCH better...

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GEM is going cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, showing a 984mB low in the Dakotas next week on the tail of the tropical remnants that are supposed to hit the GLs.

 

Euro shows 2 weaker lows (one being the remnants) phasing right over me and bombing down to 974 once it hits Ontario. THAT would be interesting. It would bring gale-force winds to here, and the formation closely resembles a sub-tropical cyclone over here.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The GFS continues to run 10+ degrees colder on Saturday than other models.  Most models have highs in eastern Iowa in the low 80s Saturday, while the GFS is stuck in the low 70s.  Looking ahead to around the 12th, the Euro has highs in the 50s for large portions of the midwest and upper midwest/GL's regions.  Hopefully that modifies as we get closer. 

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It's been thundering for several hours it seems, but mostly from weak cells moving through. A heavy line developed near the Mississippi River and other storms are gaining strength just sw. of here, but will mostly miss.

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One thing's for sure. Most of the sub is seeing rain next week. Models are even showing snow/mixed precip VERY far South in Canada for this time of year, with the line getting as far South as Winnipeg.

 

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Tired of the heat and humidity??  Models are suggesting a nice cool down for later in Week 2, starting around next Thursday and beyond for those across the eastern Sub.

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Severe storms blasted my area last nite w large hail, torrential rains and damaging winds at around 330am. That was wild stuff. Drove around my sub this morning, but did not see and trees down. Not sure if I will have time to go outside my sub to look around for any damage, but, it sure did get nasty late last nite.

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Two lines of storms moved through my area overnight.  Both crapped out on me.  The first red cell had a bunch of lightning, but rapidly weakened the second it entered the city.  The second line mostly skipped over me and redeveloped on the other side of the city.  My rain total is only 0.19".  At least it filled the rain barrel.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had over 1” of rain last night. NWS Hastings mentions a ring of fire pattern. Looks like multiple storm chances in the next week. Had 3 hot and windy days so the rain was welcome. Dews have been creeping up. Last night before the storm hit, we here at 94 degrees with a 68 dew.

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Todays models are looking interesting regarding Cristobal in the gulf. The GFS and Euro both show the system tracking north and interacting with a frontal system next Wednesday producing heavy rain across the midwest, especially across MO, IA, IL and even WI. 

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Todays models are looking interesting regarding Cristobal in the gulf. The GFS and Euro both show the system tracking north and interacting with a frontal system next Wednesday producing heavy rain across the midwest, especially across MO, IA, IL and even WI. 

 

That's a real big improvement for eastern Iowa.  The latest Euro is much farther nw and tracks a strong low right through us.  971 mb low in northern Wisconsin in June?!?  Wow!

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yeah. Blegh. Not a fan of the last Euro run for my area as it phases over the Mississippi River instead of over here. Almost zero impact here as a result. No wind and a few sprinkles.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Seeing a lot of lightning in the distance this evening

 

Pretty decent bowed line passing to your sw.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Pretty decent bowed line passing to your sw.

 

KLNK reported a gust of 69 mph with the 11 pm obs. I can hear the wind hitting my window.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Nice wind and lightning but the heavy rain went around me for the most part. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Yesterday was one of the wildest days this season in terms of severe wx reports across the nation.  The primary threat was wind, none moreso, was the nasty derecho that hit Philadelphia in back-to-back days.  Up to 100 mph wind gusts and a Tornado warning just outside the metro last evening was rather wild.

 

 

 

 

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Sunny attm w temps at 73F. Splendid weather for the next several days. A CF coming tomorrow could threat the area w strong to severe storms and then, its all sunshine through mid next week. Low humidity at that also. We do need to watch at the remnants of that tropical storm "CristoBal." That could pose a threat to SEMI w hvy rains and strong winds. Still plenty of time for that.

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One strong cell has been parked just west of Iowa City for the last two hours.  It appears to be barely west of Bud's home.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My N Yorkers yesterday dodge the bullet from severe weather. The Philly area on the other hand got nailed, as relatives of mine and friends told me it got real nasty, as if a missile was approaching from the distance.

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Last night's Euro shows a big snowstorm just across the Canadian border when Cristobal phases with northern stream energy.  That's not something you see every mid June.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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SOI crash will result in a major cool down later next week...

 

 

 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -33.39

 

 

 

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SOI crash will result in a major cool down later next week...

I've been looking at that. Record lows will be in question here.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Euro is back East with the energy next week, phasing it over Chicago and bringing it Northeast over MI. GFS phases it over ON which actually gives me decent t-storm potential.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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There was little wind yesterday and again today.  That makes it exceptionally sultry compared to a few days ago when the wind howled.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the boundaries from that earlier cell around Cedar Rapids are allowing additional storms to fire up in the same area. 

watching closely.  looks good for mby hopefully.  

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I wasn't even paying attention, but I just wondered why it had become fully cloudy.  Just now, a severe warning was issued for the northern part of my county.  Unfortunately, the stuff to my west is struggling to hold together.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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According to Bill Stiffens at WOOD TV 8 May 2020 had the lowest number of reported tornadoes since at least 1970. And the lowest number of EF2 or stronger in recorded history (1950). Michigan only had one tornado watch and that was for just one county (Berrien County) in the far SW corner of the stated. This is on top of last year when. Most of Michigan did not get a Tornado Watch in 2019. There were two tornado watches that covered part of Michigan…one that just included Berrien and Cass Counties and another for the western third of the UP. So yes last year and this year so far have been tornado free in Michigan. At the current time it is partly cloudy here and 85.

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The storms today are going nowhere.  If they don't pop up on top of you, you get nothing.  Waterloo is getting nailed today.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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