June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow!

 

I'm not even sure I've had 5 80+ days here.  Probably after today.

only 3 80+ days so far this year. Only down to 66 tonight so it’s going to be a warm start.

[Timmy Supercell]

52 this morning. Lows getting warmer! (I prefer 45-48, but whatevs)

 

C'mon tomorrow let's get some thunderstorms!

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of just 60 this morning. First 60+ low of the year. It’s 65 and sunny and not even 8am. Definitely going to be atleast 80...I’m going to guess mid 80s here today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely looks like summer looking at the gfs and the euro. No rain on either model the next 10 days besides some c-zone drizzle maybe one day. Probably will be waiting until next month to see any rain.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Almost 70F already. Gonna be a hot one!!

[Jesse]

Definitely looks like summer looking at the gfs and the euro. No rain on either model the next 10 days besides some c-zone drizzle maybe one day. Probably will be waiting until next month to see any rain.

At least temperatures are looking a lot more reasonable after today.

[Jesse]

Sunny and 64 currently after a low of 58.

[TacomaWaWx]

At least temperatures are looking a lot more reasonable after today.

Yeah it doesn’t look too hot at any point after today. Pretty enjoyable weather this month if we only end up with 1 or 2 possibly hot days.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah it doesn’t look too hot at any point after today. Pretty enjoyable weather this month if we only end up with 1 or 2 possibly hot days.

 

 

FWIW... the EPS is showing very warm weather for most of next week.    It starts warming up again over the weekend per the last few runs.

[MossMan]

Got up to 89 yesterday. Should be able to cross 90 pretty easily today.

I got up to 78 yesterday!

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FWIW... the EPS is showing very warm weather for most of next week.    It starts warming up again over the weekend per the last few runs.

 

The last week of July and first week of August are typically our hottest days of the year.

[TT-SEA]

The last week of July and first week of August are typically our hottest days of the year.

The EPS is showing it being warmer than normal next week.

[GobBluth]

The EPS is showing it being warmer than normal next week.

Not a huge lean either way, but 500mb average isn't showing any sort of ridge over the nw.

[Phil]

Not a huge lean either way, but 500mb average isn't showing any sort of ridge over the nw.

The EPS has had a warm bias over the high terrain and West Coast all summer for some reason. The 500mb average is far more predictable.

[Phil]

Actually, given the background state, all of the models have technically had a “warm” bias over the PNW region in the long range, then trend cooler with time.

[ShawniganLake]

I got up to 78 yesterday!

Back to back 82s here. Hope you join the 80s club soon.

[GobBluth]

Actually, given the background state, all of the models have technically had a “warm” bias over the PNW region in the long range, then trend cooler with time.

Is there a "summer mode" that models run on that skews them towards a base pattern into the long term?

[TT-SEA]

Not a huge lean either way, but 500mb average isn't showing any sort of ridge over the nw.

 

This is the 00Z EPS for Friday...

 

 

 

And then for next Tuesday...

 

 

 

 

Looks like a cool down and warm up to me.     

 

The EPS showed this current period as being rather warm last week... but its probably just a warm bias.    Its actually colder than normal.   

[TacomaWaWx]

FWIW... the EPS is showing very warm weather for most of next week.    It starts warming up again over the weekend per the last few runs.

Still no significant heat in sight just comfortable temps. Hottest day of the month will probably be today...already 70 degrees and it’s not even 10am.

[TT-SEA]

Still no significant heat in sight just comfortable temps. Hottest day of the month will probably be today...already 70 degrees and it’s not even 10am.

 

But there is definitely variability on the EPS... its going to cool down and then probably warm up next week again to warmer than normal.

[TacomaWaWx]

But there is definitely variability on the EPS... its going to cool down and then probably warm up next week again to warmer than normal.

Thanks dewey . Lol I’m enjoying it either way this summer has been excellent so far in terms of weather.

[GobBluth]

But there is definitely variability on the EPS... its going to cool down and then probably warm up next week again to warmer than normal.

How about this - no heat blasts in sight.

[TT-SEA]

How about this - no heat blasts in sight.

 

Agreed!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 75F. We will easily hit 90F no. 6 today.

[Jesse]

Not a huge lean either way, but 500mb average isn't showing any sort of ridge over the nw.

Yeah. 500mb mean looks pretty flat over us.

[Kayla]

Still no significant heat in sight just comfortable temps. Hottest day of the month will probably be today...already 70 degrees and it’s not even 10am.

 

00z ECMWF shows a high of 101 at PDX on the 28th.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows the same variability.

 

86 at SEA today... only 70 on Thursday and lows 70s Friday... then back into the 80s Sunday and 90 at SEA for next Tuesday.

[Jesse]

00z ECMWF shows a high of 101 at PDX on the 28th.

Snowing with frost warnings there though, right?

[Kayla]

Snowing with frost warnings there though, right?

 

In four weeks, probably.

[TacomaWaWx]

00z ECMWF shows a high of 101 at PDX on the 28th.

Heat wave will be watered down to mid 80s up here and about 90 or so in a few days. That’s my guess.

[TT-SEA]

Easy to see the variability at the 500mb level as well on the EPS.

 

Here is Thursday...

 

 

 

 

And next Tuesday...

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Already up to 77 IMBY, I bought a whole house window fan over the weekend, should be Wednesday, and I will get it installed for the next round of heat next week.  Its supposed to move 3500CFM of air, if I'm doing my math right it should (in theory) pull the equivalent air volume of my house every 7 minutes.  I'm surprised more houses out here don't have attic fans, especially since most houses out here don't have A/C.  They were a staple in the south.  They only thing better than how much they cooled things off in the evening was seeing how close you could fly a paper airplane without it getting sucked up in it.  Let's just say my friend's parents found ALOOOOT if paper airplanes in their attic!  

 

I found a video of a slick variation of the attic fan that fits between the rafters, and has foam insulating blocks that automatically block the opening when not in use (I guess that answers my question about why there aren't more attic fans LOL) but it's more $$$ than my sorry furloughed a$$ can afford right now.

[Phil]

This is the 00Z EPS for Friday...

 

 

 

And then for next Tuesday...

 

 

 

 

Looks like a cool down and warm up to me.

 

The EPS showed this current period as being rather warm last week... but its probably just a warm bias. Its actually colder than normal.

Well, a period of time with transient warm up/cool downs is certainly possible, but as far as I can see, there’s nothing to support sustained warmth, and if anything, a return to the relatively cool/dry summer background state looks increasingly likely to me as we transition from late July into August.

 

And yes, the EPS has been warm biased out there in the longer range this summer. I can link to previous forecasts relative to observations if you’d like?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows almost an exact repeat of this past weekend for this coming weekend... after a cool down and some marine layer and even showers mainly north of Seattle in the Wed-Fri period.

 

Sunday looks pretty warm on this run... about the same as yesterday.

[Deweydog]

Warms, cools, then warms???

 

What’s next in this clusterfuck of a year?????

[TT-SEA]

Upper 90s for the Portland area one week from today per the 12Z ECMWF.

[Jesse]

Will be kinda funny when July ends up solidly above average given all the vaginal bleeding earlier in the month.

[MossMan]

Will be kinda funny when July ends up solidly above average given all the vaginal bleeding earlier in the month.

You definitely have had a way with words lately!

[TT-SEA]

Will be kinda funny when July ends up solidly above average given all the vaginal bleeding earlier in the month.

 

 

Jesse is back from vacation and overly-concerned with people's perception of the weather... even climo weather!   And using gross bodily-fluid references to make his point.   

 

The first half of July was definitely cooler and cloudier than normal.    Hindsight is 20/20 of course... but the first few days of the month were pretty wet and cold up here and not very summer-like.   Climo can be a drag in the summer around here.  

 

It just makes you soooooo mad when people do not embrace crappy weather.