July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Today's 12z Euro looks a lot more robust with the trough next week compared to yesterday's.

Almost a ridge bridge!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... makes me think of something related to three bears.   The word escapes me at the moment.   

[LowerGarfield]

98F outside...glad to be inside.

[YahRaEl]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... makes me think of something related to three bears.   The word escapes me at the moment.   

Goldilocks 

[YahRaEl]

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I think the reason it is "cult-like" is because if they are right, the consequences are dire. 

Similar to religion. 

Yep. And dogma is a natural part of human nature. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

With the little matter of there being A LOT more scientific evidence for the basic physics behind a warming planet than there is for the existence of any religion’s deity or afterlife.

The problem is the built-in assumption that a warming planet is universally catastrophic. 

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... makes me think of something related to three bears.   The word escapes me at the moment.   

[YahRaEl]

Paine Field International Airport

Everrett 

[Phishy Wx]

hmmmm

 

 

[YahRaEl]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

hmmmm

 

 

Last year had 8

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Last year had 8

Just checked... 8 is correct through 7/20 last year.   

SEA NWS is mistaken.  

[TacomaWx]

78/59 so far…despite the onshore flow good chance we still get into the low 80s. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked... 8 is correct through 7/20 last year.   

SEA NWS is mistaken.  

They corrected the tweet.

[YahRaEl]

Today is day #27 of 80+° here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood and #28 Spanaway 

[MWG]

Welp we are in this till middle of next week.

[YahRaEl]

Crazy range in elevation here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood lowest point 14ft asl and highest point 423ft asl. 263ft where I stay. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like EUG might fall short of a burger today. Predicted high was 91.

[YahRaEl]

83° so far here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood. Marked the station with the red point on second map.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, MWG said:

Welp we are in this till middle of next week.

Fully expect that type of situation to happen near here soon. Complete with warm ash falling.

[Tyler Mode]

84 currently.  A nice -11 degree swing from yesterday.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

The problem is the built-in assumption that a warming planet is universally catastrophic. 

Considering it is set to push the planet well outside the temperature range that has sustained human civilization so far, that seems quite a reasonable assumption.

[Phishy Wx]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked... 8 is correct through 7/20 last year.   

SEA NWS is mistaken.  

I think the tweet is a little misleading and they mean total for the whole summer maybe?

[Phishy Wx]

yeah

 

 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... makes me think of something related to three bears.   The word escapes me at the moment.   

Moldy socks?

[Cloud]

58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

hmmmm

 

 

The 22 last year by this date sounds inaccurate to me without even looking it up. We had a cool and wet spring last year leading up to the summer. This year has been clearly warmer and dryer, so it really doesn’t seems like it’s that close.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes, obviously those who deny global warming is even happening at all are less incorrect than those who get the details wrong or whose style or rhetoric gets under your skin.

Debunking deniers is easy and quick, the warming is evident in all datasets (even the raw/non-homogenized data) and the contribution of CO2 is easy to demonstrate via the most elementary of radiative transfer physics. 

Alarmists do *much* more damage to public trust in climate science. They make ridiculous claims that, upon failure, leave the public justifiably skeptical of legitimate science.

Not to mention the fodder they give deniers with their failed doomsayer prophecies. Some of these people are analogous to religious zealots predicting the rapture.

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The 22 last year by this date sounds inaccurate to me without even looking it up. We had a cool and wet spring last year leading up to the summer. This year has been clearly warmer and dryer, so it really doesn’t seems like it’s that close.

Summer started later last year, started much earlier this year. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS... still shows some rain on Monday but also warms up faster than the 12Z run.  

This might end up being a fairly decent late July rain event for NW WA coast and SW BC.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS... still shows some rain on Monday but also warms up faster than the 12Z run.  

This might end up being a fairly decent late July rain event for NW WA coast and SW BC.

Lies.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Panty-waisted. And that's not a very gender sensitive term to use, Phil.

I think what bothers me is you can see the fear-mongering being pushed harder than ever in the media right now, whether it's an announcement that we just experienced "the world's HOTTEST day ever" (according to an unproven model, not actual temperature records), breathless social media posts galore about how Death Valley is about to set the modern day heat record (they didn't), or the silly NPR segment I cited earlier that wasn't even based in actual summer weather this year.

Anyone arguing it's just about science is overlooking a whole lot of cult-like aspects to the climate change movement.

Most of the stuff on social media is religious prophecy, not science.

New, high quality, peer reviewed research is published every week, yet almost none of it sees the light of day. The disconnect between the (vast majority of) new literature vs stuff you hear in the media is nothing short of gobsmacking.

I subscribe to many of these journals and read weather/climate literature obsessively enough that it’s probably unhealthy. Can’t count how many studies are taken wildly out of context by the same media talking heads that lecture everyone on the “dangers of misinformation”.

It is a complete and utter joke.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Debunking deniers is easy and quick, the warming is evident in all datasets (even the raw/non-homogenized data) and the contribution of CO2 is easy to demonstrate via the most elementary of radiative transfer physics. 

Alarmists do *much* more damage to public trust in climate science. They make ridiculous claims that, upon failure, leave the public justifiably skeptical of legitimate science.

Not to mention the fodder they give deniers with their failed doomsayer prophecies. Some of these people are analogous to religious zealots predicting the rapture.

Again, as if getting the details wrong is worse than getting the basic fact of existence wrong.

Sorry, this just does not make sense.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The 22 last year by this date sounds inaccurate to me without even looking it up. We had a cool and wet spring last year leading up to the summer. This year has been clearly warmer and dryer, so it really doesn’t seems like it’s that close.

It is wrong... see my previous post.   Correct number through 7/20 last year was 8.

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Considering it is set to push the planet well outside the temperature range that has sustained human civilization so far, that seems quite a reasonable assumption.

The long term results are debatable. Some of the more dire early predictions certainly haven't panned out.

That being said, do you think it's unfair for people like Bastardi to use local records/events to dispute global warming, while it's very common practice to use local events/records as examples of global warming? 

[Deweydog]

AI is going to be debating this same stuff 50 years from now.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Again, as if getting the details wrong is worse than getting the basic fact of existence wrong.

Sorry, this just does not make sense.

It’s more than just getting details wrong, dude. It’s an ocean of falsehoods, of magnitudes equal to or greater than those spewed by deniers.

And the damage they do is of astronomically greater proportions.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

AI is going to be debating this same stuff 50 years from now.

AI is gonna solve global warming, duh.

By destroying humanity.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Considering it is set to push the planet well outside the temperature range that has sustained human civilization so far, that seems quite a reasonable assumption.

Case in point. This is not even remotely accurate. Only have to go halfway back thru the Holocene to find temperatures and sea levels higher than today (and substantially so).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Case in point. This is not even remotely accurate. Only have to go halfway back thru the Holocene to find temperatures and sea levels higher than today (and substantially so).

There was no human civilization around halfway back through the Holocene!

[YahRaEl]

A bit out of topic but what is Jury Duty and how can I get out of it I suffer social anxiety I can't go to big gatherings I get seizures. Then with my Asperger's doing anything else not nature or weather related destroys my mind