October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 45F with some rain. Love this! Mountains are gonna be enjoying some snow.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Trees are still mostly leafed out here. Power is flickering and you could hear some branches breaking. 

That first wind event of the autumn is always the messiest. I had enough deadwood to fill three trashcans last Saturday, and that was only 40-45mph.

I don’t know why trees cling to the deadwood in the summer but immediately start dropping it in October.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Over 2” of rain today and now closing in on 2” of snow.  Halloween inflatables are down. What a beast of a storm. 
 

Amazing.     Nino comes through again with an early cold/snow blast.  

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECWF is going for a good hard frost here Friday night.  Easily down in the 20s for outlying areas.

Welcome back Jim! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Stayed at 38 all night, with light rain/drizzle pretty much the whole time.  Finished up the day yesterday with 1.15" of rain, and have added another .21" since midnight. 

 

We have a frost advisory up here for tonight. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like a line of showers are forming over the Pacific and going to come into the Portland area later today. 

[Phishy Wx]

radar history looks like it snowed overnight.  too warm to accumulate.  wind is currently ripping at 20-25+ out of the NE.  another band about to rotate in and it 33 with a DP of 31.  next band should be accumulating snow.  we'll see

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

1991.

The entire 1990s decade was a disaster in the stratosphere w/rt ozone/BDC vigor. Screaming solar wind and CFCs conspired to make things as difficult as possible (especially in +ENSO years).

So while a 1991/92 type disaster is theoretically possible, there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic (IMO).

[Blizzard777]

Brrrr….42* 

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECWF is going for a good hard frost here Friday night.  Easily down in the 20s for outlying areas.

RIP my Banana plants

Have you started picking leaves off the trees yet Jim ?  
lol….still love you do this!!!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

The entire 1990s decade was a disaster in the stratosphere w/rt ozone/BDC vigor. Screaming solar wind and CFCs conspired to make things as difficult as possible (especially in +ENSO years).

So while a 1991/92 type disaster is theoretically possible, there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic (IMO).

This is also similar to late October 2002.

[Chowders]

Update from the Winthrop webcam this morning versus yesterday!   

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

The stratospheric PV could intensify to near record strength next month. Thankfully dynamic coupling w/ the troposphere is not strong at this time of year, but that begins to change in mid/late November.

If this doesn’t get disrupted (at least to some degree) by late Nov/early Dec, the prospects for a cold start to winter in the PNW (or anywhere else for that matter) will diminish substantially, as midlat/W-Hem response to p8/1 LP signature begins to favor +PNA around the winter solstice.

[High Desert Mat?]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is also similar to late October 2002.

Also similar to 2003. I remember a heavy wet snow the day after Halloween in NE Portland. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just took a measurement. 2.5” of snow.  Just crazy for Oct 24-25th. 

Wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is also similar to late October 2002.

There is literally no comparison between this and October 2002. That was a backdoor blast that brought lows in the teens to the willamette valley and produced Oregons all time October record low of -13.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1.92 total rain, currently 38 degrees with rain and some flakes mixed in.

Edited October 25, 2023 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[MossMan]

Currently 38 degrees and mostly cloudy. 
.31” so far on the day, 1.68” for the storm total so far, 3.56” for the month, and 30.44” for the year. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is literally no comparison between this and October 2002. That was a backdoor blast that brought lows in the teens to the willamette valley and produced Oregons all time October record low of -13.

Whatever.  Pretty similar pattern overall... big ridge over AK and western Canada.     Cold, clear period like what is coming up.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Incredibly the models failed on the hurricane, epic fail. The damage near the landfall area is going to be insane.

[MossMan]

Completely cleared out now with UFO’s in the sky. Temp down to 37. 

Edited October 25, 2023 by MossMan

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Completely cleared out now with UFO’s in the sky. Temp down to 37. 

That's the light on the sewage treatment plant.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Incredibly the models failed on the hurricane, epic fail. The damage near the landfall area is going to be insane.

Early morning pics from Acapulco look pretty bad.  

[TT-SEA]

Late October 1972 is also a pretty good match.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Whatever.  Pretty similar pattern overall... big ridge over AK and western Canada.     Cold, clear period like what is coming up.  

You are showing October 24th. The big blast that October was about a week later. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are showing October 24th. The big blast that October was about a week later. 

Either way... its a similar pattern.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46/40 yesterday. Currently 38 with light rain. 1.15" the past 24 hours, 5.43" on the month. Should end the month very close to average precip after having above average rainfall in September. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This would of been a monster snow storm if it had been a bit later. Would of dropped over a foot for a large area of the lowlands. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 the low isTaking a similar path that November 2010 did. Looks like it crossed ocean shores and is over capital forest now. 

[GHweatherChris]

6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would of been a monster snow storm if it had been a bit later. Would of dropped over a foot for a large area of the lowlands. 

2nd big storm the in last few weeks to have the perfect track if it was later, hope that is a trend that continues.

Edited October 25, 2023 by GHweatherChris

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Either way... its a similar pattern.   

2002 was also completely dry, not only the "event," but the month as a whole. SLE had significantly more rain yesterday than they had the entire month of October in 2002. We had some seasonably cool days with the setup you showed, and then the cold air came in from the east with extremely low dewpoints. The cold was more impressive in Oregon, kind of like December 2013. The event in late October 2003 had the more classic N/S temp gradient, though it got quite chilly down here too. 

[Phishy Wx]

light snow and 32

some slush on grassy surfaces

[Phil]

Wooooow.

https://x.com/matthewcappucci/status/1717205101557789033?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is literally no comparison between this and October 2002. That was a backdoor blast that brought lows in the teens to the willamette valley and produced Oregons all time October record low of -13.

The 500mb pattern is pretty similar though. Actually that month is a good match overall w/rt mid-latitude pattern structure. Also followed a 3+ year -ENSO so there’s some degree of alignment there.

[Omegaraptor]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would of been a monster snow storm if it had been a bit later. Would of dropped over a foot for a large area of the lowlands. 

take a shot every time this is said regarding a kind-of-decent fall or spring trough

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 500mb pattern is pretty similar though. Actually that month is a good match overall w/rt mid-latitude pattern structure. Also followed a 3+ year -ENSO so there’s some degree of alignment there.

I believe 2001-02 was a neutral year that followed 3 Ninas. 

The observed weather could not be more different. Cold continental and very dry air versus a cold maritime trough.

Edited October 25, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Termination dust on The Lions.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I believe 2001-02 was a neutral year that followed 3 Ninas. 

The observed weather could not be more different. Cold continental and very dry air versus a cold maritime trough.

2001/02 still had the -ENSO low frequency state though ONI was neutral. But for all intents and purposes it was a -ENSO winter, as 2019/20 was essentially a +ENSO winter.

Oct 2002 isn’t a perfect match, but I’ve seen worse.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

take a shot every time this is said regarding a kind-of-decent fall or spring trough

At you?

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Whatever.  Pretty similar pattern overall... big ridge over AK and western Canada.     Cold, clear period like what is coming up.  

Goes to show how tiny differences in 500mb pattern can lead to vastly different observable weather outcomes at any particular location.