Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Models continue to look varied. No rudderless, stangnant weather patterns this Fall. I don't think we've seen a single weather regime last longer than a week since August. 7 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Just now, Phil said: Operational GFS and CMC to some extent look nothing like their ensemble means. Alaska blocking much stronger on GEFS/GEPS. Let’s see what Dr. Euro has to say. Great point Phil. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kayla Posted November 12, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 It doesn't get much better than this for an ensemble mean 10 days out boys and girls! 7 5 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Kayla said: Sorry to hear that. Building a home can be very exciting times so hopefully you guys can find some joy in it while not being too overwhelmed! Thanks! We’re having fun with it. It’s not what we had planned even six months ago but the place will be pretty sweet. Backs up to a recently-closed golf course that’s been converted to a nature preserve. When it snows again in a couple years I should get some sweet snaps. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: Thanks! We’re having fun with it. It’s not what we had planned even six months ago but the place will be pretty sweet. Backs up to a recently-closed golf course that’s been converted to a nature preserve. When it snows again in a couple years I should get some sweet snaps. Oh that is really cool! And yeah, I'm sure you won't see any outflow until 2025 but something to look forward to! 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Kayla said: It doesn't get much better than this for an ensemble mean 10 days out boys and girls! Can't wait. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Kayla said: It doesn't get much better than this for an ensemble mean 10 days out boys and girls! Need that drooling homer simpson gif 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Lock it! 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Well hello... 6 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 37 minutes ago, Kayla said: Sorry to hear that. Building a home can be very exciting times so hopefully you guys can find some joy in it while not being too overwhelmed! Looking at how the population at large is doing and housing costs right now, you could be a doing a heck of a lot worse than buying land next to a nature preserve in the Portland metro and building your own custom home on it. It’s all relative. #prayers4matt 3 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Looking at how the population at large is doing and housing costs right now, you could be a doing a heck of a lot worse than buying land next to a nature preserve in the Portland metro and building your own custom home on it. It’s all relative. #prayers4matt He’s going to have a creaky a** house forever for building it during the winter 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Models continue to look varied. No rudderless, stangnant weather patterns this Fall. I don't think we've seen a single weather regime last longer than a week since August. That’ll wait until January. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Could be getting KOLD. 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Michael Snyder says to not bite on the hype,, can calls out the social media types.....I guess that's us huh? 1 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well hello... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well hello... I don’t think next winter will be a niña. Fact is, no niña has occurred within 5 years of a 3+ year -ENSO in (at least) the last century. Sometimes the wait is much longer. The only exception is if that 3+ year niña was followed by a multi-year niño. ENSO tendency emerges from intradecadal variability in the IPWP, and following a prolonged La Niña it takes awhile for the IPWP to return to a structure that favors the development of La Niña. And the niñas that do eventually develop tend to be weak, east-based events imbedded within the intradecadal +ENSO regime. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Phil said: I don’t think next winter will be a niña. Fact is, no niña has occurred within 5 years of a 3+ year -ENSO in (at least) the last century. Sometimes the wait is much longer. The only exception is if that 3+ year niña was followed by a multi-year niño. ENSO tendency emerges from intradecadal variability in the IPWP, and following a prolonged La Niña it takes awhile for the IPWP to return to a structure that favors the development of La Niña. And the niñas that do eventually develop tend to be weak, east-based events imbedded within the intradecadal +ENSO regime. Will be interesting to watch how this develops. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, RentonHill said: He’s going to have a creaky a** house forever for building it during the winter We had that concern going into it but we had it written into the contract that they can’t even stock drywall until the sticks test to 15% or below. Might put us behind by a few weeks once it’s dried in around the end of the year but it’ll be worth it. Most builders will green light drywall at 20%. 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Doinko Posted November 12, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 That storm on the 20th is still showing up 8 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Doinko said: That storm on the 20th is still showing up Even some mixed precip with it 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Even some mixed precip with it Cold air pours in behind this system. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Even some mixed precip with it Bye Eugene! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Day 9 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: We had that concern going into it but we had it written into the contract that they can’t even stock drywall until the sticks test to 15% or below. Might put us behind by a few weeks once it’s dried in around the end of the year but it’ll be worth it. Most builders will green light drywall at 20%. You so smart!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Significant lowland snow on the ECMWF within 10 days... time to start paying a little more attention. 7 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Day 9 Griswold-xmaslights-hallelujah-gif 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Splendid Euro! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Euro alert! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 I seen worse. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorCal55 Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I seen worse. I hope it digs alittle more west to CA first! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I seen worse. Gotta love that ridge for long-term prospects. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorCal55 said: I hope it digs alittle more west to CA first! It's not perfect, but it's a start. Several magic 8 ballz on the PDX ensemble chart. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Wow nice euro! 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, Phil said: I don’t think next winter will be a niña. Fact is, no niña has occurred within 5 years of a 3+ year -ENSO in (at least) the last century. Sometimes the wait is much longer. The only exception is if that 3+ year niña was followed by a multi-year niño. ENSO tendency emerges from intradecadal variability in the IPWP, and following a prolonged La Niña it takes awhile for the IPWP to return to a structure that favors the development of La Niña. And the niñas that do eventually develop tend to be weak, east-based events imbedded within the intradecadal +ENSO regime. The earth is a few billion years old. Saying something hasn’t happened in 100 years as fact that it won’t happen seems pretty pointless no? 2 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 EPS day 9 and 10 5 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, Doinko said: Even some mixed precip with it What normally happens when a strong storm goes South of the Portland area, it normally brings strong east winds through the Gorge which normally is cold temps. That's why there could be a mixed moisture. I saw this back in 95 (I think it was that year). I lived off 132nd and East Burnside and the forecast was just for a little snow but it snowed all day with strong east winds. We had snow drifts that went up to my waist. I think the NWS issued a blizzard warning for the Portland area (not positive about that tho). Well see if this storm keeps showing up in the next few days. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: The earth is a few billion years old. Saying something hasn’t happened in 100 years as fact that it won’t happen seems pretty pointless no? We are also working with an extremely small sample size. This thing turning into a strong Nino seems to scream instant collapse. The only precedent for what Phil is arguing is something that last happened in the late 50s. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 Just now, Ken in Wood Village said: What normally happens when a strong storm goes South of the Portland area, it normally brings strong east winds through the Gorge which normally is cold temps. That's why there could be a mixed moisture. I saw this back in 95 (I think it was that year). I lived off 132nd and East Burnside and the forecast was just for a little snow but it snowed all day with strong east winds. We had snow drifts that went up to my waist. I think the NWS issued a blizzard warning for the Portland area (not positive about that tho). Well see if this storm keeps showing up in the next few days. It's somewhat similar to the storm the week of Thanksgiving 2019. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: EPS day 9 and 10 That's gorgeous. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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