November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

unfortunately in most cases we have the Rockies in the way

The Rocky Mountains have existed for thousands of years.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The Rocky Mountains have existed for thousands of years.

indeed, millions. and they block a lot of cold air masses from penetrating the PNW.  my initial comment was more about the 12z run being garbage not necessarily about the arctic being warmer than normal, although it is one the areas of earth that is warming the quickest 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 11/13/2023 at 10:35 PM, snow_wizard said:

This could be a very dry winter.  Hard to say what the second half may do though.

Overall, I’m thinking an abnormally dry winter due to the Pacific being shut off. Especially December and January. February I think we could see a Pineapple Express of some kind especially if we get an Arctic Blast in January.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice ECMWF run.  

 

1 hour ago, Christensen87 said:

Looks like it could be windy around the Sound on Sunday? 

Nice back door Blast for next Sunday. Going to be strong offshore flow. The cold east winds will be blowing.
 

 

[Phishy Wx]

dry winter does not bode well for next summer.  oof

[van city]

Anyone heard or familiar with this? Phil? GraphCast is a weather forecasting system based on machine learning and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Im okay with a dry winter as long as it is chilly. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im okay with a dry winter as long as it is chilly. 

a couple january brush fires would really tie things together

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

a couple january brush fires would really tie things together

I’ve seen that on the southern plains. 

[T-Town]

Another good one tonight. 

[Snownerd3000]

46 minutes ago, van city said:

Anyone heard or familiar with this? Phil? GraphCast is a weather forecasting system based on machine learning and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs)

@iFred@iFred and I posted about it a couple days back. Def an interesting solution to watch. 

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Another good one tonight. 

Wow!  I left the waterfront before the full blown sunset…..sad panda 

love the photos 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like someone put a new anemometer up at Crown Point 🌬

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Nice which side of the lake? 

South.

[MossMan]

A pleasant day to put up the lights and do some trail cleaning! 

[MossMan]

49/31 on the day. Currently 37. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im okay with a dry winter as long as it is chilly. 

Thanks for letting us know!   I am okay with dry even if its warm.   I am also okay with warm and wet.   I also don't mind cold and dry.    

[TT-SEA]

Breezy and 48 here... going to be another mild night in my area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was 43 when I got home an hour ago. Just took the dog out. FEELS COLD!

[TacomaWx]

Got below freezing for the first time since Halloween this morning. 50/30 temp spread today. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 hours ago, van city said:

Anyone heard or familiar with this? Phil? GraphCast is a weather forecasting system based on machine learning and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs)

Some tweets from Maue.  I know some don't like him, and that's fine, but he is a wealth of information regardless of how you might feel about him

So Graphcast did real well in the 5 day range, but the EPS was far better in the 10 day range.  But note another AI system being developed that may be better than EPS

 

 

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

55/32 spread here today. Morning frost then sunshine and some gusty east winds in the afternoon, with temps on the mild side all things considered.

Mostly cloudy and breezy out there this evening, with a current temp of 47.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[TacomaWx]

Not much rain coming up it looks like. 0.5” shown on the euro here the next few days then another dry spell next week maybe. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS time! Desperately looking for anything remotely interesting on this run. I suppose you never know what Day 6-10 looks like. Let's find out. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 2 (4-run trend) do you want 4 run trends, or 8?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

(8-run trend)

[MossMan]

Had a windstorm on this day 8yrs ago! It was a powerless two days at our old place due to a west wind extravaganza! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 (4-run trend)

(8-run trend)

The trend in the middle of country is a major shift on the second one.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pardon me of pointing out AI is likely another shitty step for humanity. Everyone knows this yet we plunge willingly into the abyss. 
 

…Carry on…

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 (4-run trend)

(8-run trend)

Mofo is boogying

[Snownerd3000]

30 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS time! Desperately looking for anything remotely interesting on this run. I suppose you never know what Day 6-10 looks like. Let's find out. C'MON!!!!

Read "Desperately" like Lloyd 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pardon me of pointing out AI is likely another shitty step for humanity. Everyone knows this yet we plunge willingly into the abyss. 
 

…Carry on…

I sure as hell am not willingly going to do so. To hell with AI

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 32 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[HuskyMaestro]

42F and already feeling chilly. Brrr

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend)

[FroYoBro]

GFS is not nice.