November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cold Snap]

Low of 31 here this morning. 12th freeze.

[Front Ranger]

49 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Had a low of 29.5 and also went below freezing before midnight for my 8th freeze in a row and 14th so far.  Not earthshaking, but what else is there to track during a boring Nino winter?  Currently 35 with high clouds around.

Just out of curiosity, what's your record for number of freezes in a season?

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Multi year drought stresses/kills trees, single year droughts are tolerated. 

Do you think it was dry enough this summer/fall to stress the trees similar to 2022? 

At least here in Seattle I don't think there was anything about 2023 that was all that stressful for the trees given the significant rainfall we received in September. However, I know there wasn't much rainfall in PA and Bellingham in that period...

From my perspective, it seems like the trees could be fine in a drought period as long as the rainy season starts and ends on schedule and the summer isn't ridiculously hot. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Do you think it was dry enough this summer/fall to stress the trees similar to 2022? 

At least here in Seattle I don't think there was anything about 2023 that was all that stressful for the trees given the significant rainfall we received in September. However, I know there wasn't much rainfall in PA and Bellingham in that period...

From my perspective, it seems like the trees could be fine in a drought period as long as the rainy season starts and ends on schedule and the summer isn't ridiculously hot. 

Depends on the tree species probably.  Cedar trees here locally have been dying a slow death in many areas since the summer of 2015.  I don’t think this summer did them any favors

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

Starting to get the feeling the worm is going to turn in a big way when it comes to precip. One of the next several months is going to just blow it out. 

[Omegaraptor]

30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The fall overall for the PNW has been near normal. Some places above, some like where you live below. But nothing like the really dry years I mentioned.

Yeah, no doubt it's been a dry year.

Yeah it has really felt like a normal shoulder season around here. Nice to see following last spring and last fall which were basically just sudden flips between winter and summer.

[RentonHill]

Euro weeklies big drop back again on the PV. Starting to think extended forecast models arent perfect. Last 3 days in GIF. Sorry for cropping the date off to make the scales comparable but the one with the -30 is today's. 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

My November freeze counts:

2020: 0
2021: 2
2022: 8 (three of them were midnight freezes so maybe 5 is the correct number)
2023: 0 (so far)

Lots of frosts in 2023 but haven't been below 34 degrees yet. 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Euro weeklies big drop back again on the PV. Starting to think extended forecast models arent perfect. Last 3 days in GIF. Sorry for cropping the date off to make the scales comparable but the one with the -30 is today's. 

 

Aleutian low showing up on some of the long range guidance now.  Would likely throw some body shots at the PV.   

[Winterdog]

39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just out of curiosity, what's your record for number of freezes in a season?

I had 89 freezes in 2008/9 and last winter came in at 88. I average 60 per year since 1992.

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake averages 64 freezes officially.  My neighborhood usually sees at least a few more freezes than the official observation site as we are a bit more sheltered.  I’d guess my backyard averages 70-75 freezes per season.  

[DareDuck]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, I'm there right now and it's really windy. I'm near Thousand Oaks right now and we have a High Wind Warning.

I’ll be in Westlake later tonight. Could be a bumpy flight in. 

[DareDuck]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Got down to 20 last night and already up to 33 now.

 

Pretty nice sunrise at bachelor, glad to see the area looking more snowy after this last storm, but it's still not enough unfortunately.

Nice to have another central OR resident here. 26 in SE Bend this morning. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Do you think it was dry enough this summer/fall to stress the trees similar to 2022? 

At least here in Seattle I don't think there was anything about 2023 that was all that stressful for the trees given the significant rainfall we received in September. However, I know there wasn't much rainfall in PA and Bellingham in that period...

From my perspective, it seems like the trees could be fine in a drought period as long as the rainy season starts and ends on schedule and the summer isn't ridiculously hot. 

My area is on year 3 or 4 of below normal rainfall. You can see a lot of mature trees losing the fight. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

43 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I had 89 freezes in 2008/9 and last winter came in at 88. I average 60 per year since 1992.

Dang that's a lot! I'm unsure which year it was that I got the most freezes since I moved here in 2006, but I assume it's also the 2008-2009 season.

 

We had 228 days that got below freezing from September 2008-May 2009! What's most crazy is that every single day in February and March got below freezing. 

 

Seems pretty likely that is the year with the most days that got below freezing, but I'll check some other years later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

My area is on year 3 or 4 of below normal rainfall. You can see a lot of mature trees losing the fight. 

Down here I think the issue is more related to heat stress. It's mainly confined to the lower elevations below 1000'. The trees in my area seem to be doing very well. 

[Skagit Weather]

I average about 40 freezes a year. Nothing to brag about, but not too bad for being less than a mile from the sound. Last year I had 50 so I was above average with my best season (from 2010-2023) being 2010-11 with 56. My worst winter was 2015-16 where I only had 24. I'm at 10 so far on the season so almost halfway to beating the last strong niño.

[Phishy Wx]

can we get a cactus and a tumbleweed react for this place?

[TT-SEA]

Lovely afternoon in Seattle... 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Dang that's a lot! I'm unsure which year it was that I got the most freezes since I moved here in 2006, but I assume it's also the 2008-2009 season.

 

We had 228 days that got below freezing from September 2008-May 2009! What's most crazy is that every single day in February and March got below freezing. 

 

Seems pretty likely that is the year with the most days that got below freezing, but I'll check some other years later.

Central Oregon does great for freezes. 

Looks like we had 121 last season. Up there with 2011-12 for the most at my location. Despite the great heart of winter 2016-17 doesn't come close as it was a fairly mild spring, and a warm autumn. This year we are at about 10 freezes, which is better than some years, but not great. Here's how we broke it down last year. March absolutely hit it out of the park. 

2022-23
November: 22

December: 18

January: 19

February: 22

March: 28

April: 12

We had 51 sub-40 highs last cold season. Forgot about how chilly the first 3 weeks of December were, if we could have closed the month with a lasting arctic blast instead of a 10 day torch fest it would have been a pretty solid month by historical standards. 

Nov: 7
Dec: 15
Jan: 5
Feb: 10
Mar: 10
Apr: 4

[Phil]

5 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

If this is actually true, then wtf are you doing on the east coast?  Surely there's a post doc with a preferred/more healthy (for you) climate.

I’m not postdoc though. And my gf isn’t ready to leave her family. Patience is a virtue…at least that’s what I tell myself.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

can we get a cactus and a tumbleweed react for this place?

What would the cactus one even mean?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I’m not postdoc though. And my gf isn’t ready to leave her family. Patience is a virtue…at least that’s what I tell myself.

I've been to DC 6-7 times now in the past six years, and I've always found it to be a really nice place, and I've never noticed poor air quality or anything like that. Yeah, it's pretty humid and gross within season, but that's just a standing feature of the climate certain times of year. It's legitimately one of the nicer areas in the United States. I'd probably rather live out here in the PNW, but if someone told me I had to go live in an upscale DC suburb, I definitely wouldn't look at it like a death sentence. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been to DC 6-7 times now in the past six years, and I've always found it to be a really nice place, and I've never noticed poor air quality or anything like that. Yeah, it's pretty humid and gross within season, but that's just a standing feature of the climate certain times of year. It's legitimately one of the nicer areas in the United States. I'd probably rather live out here in the PNW, but if someone told me I had to go live in an upscale DC suburb, I definitely wouldn't look at it like a death sentence. 

That is my take too... seems pretty nice to me.   

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

What would the cactus one even mean?

dry as a bone

[Gradient Keeper]

Pressure Gradients

11/20/23 1:41 pm

UPDATED.

Easterly gradients continue to tick upward and will do so throughout the night. It is already breezy east of I-205 and that will ramp upward with gusty to very gusty winds from 9 PM - 6 AM Tuesday. It should be fun in Corbett and at Crown Point.

• 1 pm

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -4.9mb
TTD-DLS: -5.5mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -6.6mb
PDX-MWH: -7.3mb
PDX-GEG: -8.0mb
OTH-GEG: -12.4mb

*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale, YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, GEG = Spokane, OTH = North Bend

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been to DC 6-7 times now in the past six years, and I've always found it to be a really nice place, and I've never noticed poor air quality or anything like that. Yeah, it's pretty humid and gross within season, but that's just a standing feature of the climate certain times of year. It's legitimately one of the nicer areas in the United States. I'd probably rather live out here in the PNW, but if someone told me I had to go live in an upscale DC suburb, I definitely wouldn't look at it like a death sentence. 

I wasn’t trying to imply I hate it here. It’s a mixed bag as with most things in life. And the air quality problems are unique to 2023, it’s almost never like this.

Mid/late summer is consistently terrible, but it’s only ~40% of the year that has those conditions. And we get breaks every now and then, unlike the Deep South.

I enjoy spring a lot, fun+dynamic wx and blooms across the native landscape. And mid/late autumn is dry+sunny+tranquil, which is perfect for spending time outside. Winter is a rollercoaster of excitement and heartbreak (lately the scales have tipped more towards heartbreak, but it tends to rebalance itself eventually). All in all it’s okay.

That being said, I think I’m ready to experience different climates now. At the very least to satiate my curiosity.

[iFred]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not postdoc though. And my gf isn’t ready to leave her family. Patience is a virtue…at least that’s what I tell myself.

Where are you going for your doctorate?

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not postdoc though. And my gf isn’t ready to leave her family. Patience is a virtue…at least that’s what I tell myself.

Just tell her to move her family as well! West coast rules! East coast drools! 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Where are you going for your doctorate?

I decided not to pursue it. There aren’t enough puke emojis in the universe to adequately convey my disgust with academic culture. What little talent I have would be put to better use elsewhere.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is my take too... seems pretty nice to me.   

Given your weather preferences, I’m confident you’d love it here. That much has never been in doubt.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I wasn’t trying to imply I hate it here. It’s a mixed bag as with most things in life. And the air quality problems are unique to 2023, it’s almost never like this.

Mid/late summer is consistently terrible, but it’s only ~40% of the year that has those conditions. And we get breaks every now and then, unlike the Deep South.

I enjoy spring a lot, fun+dynamic wx and blooms across the native landscape. And mid/late autumn is dry+sunny+tranquil, which is perfect for spending time outside.

That being said, I think I’m ready to experience different climates now. At the very least to satiate my curiosity.

Yeah, variety is the spice of life. 

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

can we get a cactus and a tumbleweed react for this place?

We need a heat stroke react. I bet that’ll be one of the most frequency used, barring a yellowstone super eruption.

[Skagit Weather]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Central Oregon does great for freezes. 

Looks like we had 121 last season. Up there with 2011-12 for the most at my location. Despite the great heart of winter 2016-17 doesn't come close as it was a fairly mild spring, and a warm autumn. This year we are at about 10 freezes, which is better than some years, but not great. Here's how we broke it down last year. March absolutely hit it out of the park. 

2022-23
November: 22

December: 18

January: 19

February: 22

March: 28

April: 12

We had 51 sub-40 highs last cold season. Forgot about how chilly the first 3 weeks of December were, if we could have closed the month with a lasting arctic blast instead of a 10 day torch fest it would have been a pretty solid month by historical standards. 

Nov: 7
Dec: 15
Jan: 5
Feb: 10
Mar: 10
Apr: 4

Wow! I had a single freeze last March! Of course I'd expect there to be fewer at a  much lower elevation, but it was definitely below normal here for March freezes.

[Winterdog]

58 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

We had 228 days that got below freezing from September 2008-May 2009! What's most crazy is that every single day in February and March got below freezing. 

Wow!  That’s incredible.  You are at 4200 feet and must be in somewhat of a valley giving you some great radiational cooling on top of having the advantage of your central Oregon location.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Wow! I had a single freeze last March! Of course I'd expect there to be fewer at a  much lower elevation, but it was definitely below normal here for March freezes.

Here’s how the month looked. I don’t have precip on here, but snowfall and depth are cells D and E. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is some cold snap into the center of the country about 9-10 days out. Hope it happens even if its not here. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

End of the GFS looks promising. 

[LowerGarfield]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Been a near normal fall for precip across most the PNW. That at least is different than years like 1976, 2002, 1993, 1991, 1987, etc.

I'm curious as to why the islands of WA aren't included. Places like the San Juans or my old place, Camano is not shaded. Not talking about Canada's Gulf Islands as that is understandable.