November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably means it won't verify.  

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Starting to look a bit chunky in the reversal zone around New Years...

 

We should have a shot at something before the dreaded El Nino pattern sets up after mid Jan or so.

[High Desert Mat?]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We should have a shot at something before the dreaded El Nino pattern sets up after mid Jan or so.

If it sets up. 

[snow_wizard]

For some reason our run of misfortune just continues unabated.  About an hour ago our son had his first seizure in years, and last week our dentist, who we have been going to for years just up and died.  This guy would have been one of the last people on anyone's list to die so young.  I had some serious marathon sessions with this guy in the dentists chair.

Anyway my son is fine now, and that makes six people who are either family, friends, or close acquaintances to die in the past three months.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

If it sets up. 

There is a small chance it won't, but even the best Nino winters are usually losers in the second half.  2018-19 was very odd in that it was awful the first half and great the second.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Asked an AI image-generator what it thinks you’ll look like during next weeks storms. I think it’s accurate.  

That is NOT the look of a man who thinks it’s coming.

[High Desert Mat?]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There is a small chance it won't, but even the best Nino winters are usually losers in the second half.  2018-19 was very odd in that it was awful the first half and great the second.

This. I had around 30” on the ground on the 26th of February in ‘19. It stuck around for quite some time with a couple bouts of snow the following few weeks. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Does this still count as a white Thanksgiving weekend? Been white for all 4 days! 
It came? 
Currently 43 and still frosty in all of the shady spots. 

It’s been white here all week. Heavy frost. Loving it. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Cascadia thinks all my comments are confusing. Really funny..

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

For some reason our run of misfortune just continues unabated.  About an hour ago our son had his first seizure in years, and last week our dentist, who we have been going to for years just up and died.  This guy would have been one of the last people on anyone's list to die so young.  I had some serious marathon sessions with this guy in the dentists chair.

Anyway my son is fine now, and that makes six people who are either family, friends, or close acquaintances to die in the past three months.

our perfectly healthy eye doctor died at 35 last week.  acquired some weird blood infection that killed him in 2 weeks

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The funny thing it has yet to be in the CPC analogs list...at least in the many times I've looked.

As I said before this one is different at least from a much weaker offshore flow aspect.

Really? I’ve seen it listed many times.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

For some reason our run of misfortune just continues unabated.  About an hour ago our son had his first seizure in years, and last week our dentist, who we have been going to for years just up and died.  This guy would have been one of the last people on anyone's list to die so young.  I had some serious marathon sessions with this guy in the dentists chair.

Anyway my son is fine now, and that makes six people who are either family, friends, or close acquaintances to die in the past three months.

I’m sorry man. Sending thoughts and prayers.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

For some reason our run of misfortune just continues unabated.  About an hour ago our son had his first seizure in years, and last week our dentist, who we have been going to for years just up and died.  This guy would have been one of the last people on anyone's list to die so young.  I had some serious marathon sessions with this guy in the dentists chair.

Anyway my son is fine now, and that makes six people who are either family, friends, or close acquaintances to die in the past three months.

I'm really sorry, Jim

[Front Ranger]

Crazy how much the anomalies have flipped now for SEA and OLM with the 1991-2020 averages. 

This month, SEA is running -.7 while OLM is +2.2.

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

our perfectly healthy eye doctor died at 35 last week.  acquired some weird blood infection that killed him in 2 weeks

Yikes.  This has been a terrible year for deaths it seems.  We haven't been able to find out what our dentist died of yet.  The guy was as fit as a fiddle when I saw him a couple of weeks ago.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Crazy how much the anomalies have flipped now for SEA and OLM with the 1991-2020 averages. 

This month, SEA is running -.7 while OLM is +2.2.

It just comes down to the fact OLM has performed terribly with low temps this autumn.  In general north of OLM is running below normal for the month to date while south is still running above normal for the month.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing more than a hunch here, but I think something big will start to show up on the models within the next couple of weeks.  Most of the CPC analogs are from years that weren't El Nino driven so we haven't yet reached the point where we are screwed.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It just comes down to the fact OLM has performed terribly with low temps this autumn.  In general north of OLM is running below normal for the month to date while south is still running above normal for the month.

Yeah, this month is extreme with the difference, but it's part of a larger trend.

October: +.7 SEA, +1.9 OLM

September: -.6 SEA, +.5 OLM

August: +2.5 SEA, +3.5 OLM

[Tyler Mode]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, this month is extreme with the difference, but it's part of a larger trend.

October: +.7 SEA, +1.9 OLM

September: -.6 SEA, +.5 OLM

August: +2.5 SEA, +3.5 OLM

"They" found out Olympia was too cold, so they warmed up the temperatures.

[snow_wizard]

Nice cold pool developing east of the Cascades with a number of places coming in with near freezing high temps.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, this month is extreme with the difference, but it's part of a larger trend.

October: +.7 SEA, +1.9 OLM

September: -.6 SEA, +.5 OLM

August: +2.5 SEA, +3.5 OLM

I came in +1.2 for Oct, so a nice average of the SEA / OLM difference.

[iFred]

On 11/25/2023 at 12:04 PM, Phil said:

You sure you didn’t get those mixed up?

No.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Unrelated to weather...

Not super happy that they get to charge $25 per adult and $14 for anyone between 6-17.  To ENTER THE FREAKING MARKET.

Seattle Christmas Market

I'm protesting this sh*t.  I hear Bellevue's is pretty nice and FREE to enter.

[Phishy Wx]

interesting, not completely dry in E WA as the previous snow map indicated. just warmer than normal, hence rain over snow

 

[iFred]

10 months of commute times from Everett to Downtown Seattle. Thought it was interesting to see the morning traffic spike in September and when when it is wet out.

Looking forward to seeing the data when it snows again in 2025/26.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Never completely cleared off here today. Did get some sun, but it was hazy sunshine, with broken overcast.

Pretty decent inversion for once.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX 52/30

SLE 51/25

EUG 47/23

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already down to 32 at Corvallis. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Down to 35 after a high of 43 degrees today. Shaded areas remained frosty through the whole day.

[Phishy Wx]

local news starting to 'talk' about the coming Friday snow

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold is not really deepening much around the Sound.  SEA is warmer now than the high yesterday. 

Did you end up going to Palm Springs? I was surprised, the daylight hours really aren't that different from up here, but I guess the sun angle is just enough to keep the valley clear of inversions. It's a beautiful area, gave me a new appreciation for the desert SW:

[Phil]

Daily ONI up to +2.1. Bonafide strong El Niño.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Down to 18.1, after a low temp of 6.6, and a high temp of 54.2! Quite an impressive 48 degree range on the day!

 

Looking forward to perhaps a half a foot of snow this weekend, but not looking forward to all the warm rain next week. Not loving the long range forecasts but it's not over, we still could be in for a Christmas treat.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Daily ONI up to +2.1. Bonafide strong El Niño.

Absolutely. The Tri-monthly probably doesn’t hit that high, but definitely a strong Nino. Peaking now. 

[RentonHill]

Beast

 

[Deweydog]

Stormy Sunday???

[RentonHill]

Then boom AR

 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Then boom AR

 

Huge soaker for Oregon

[Dan the Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Daily ONI up to +2.1. Bonafide strong El Niño.

But, when is California going to begin feeling the effects of this "strong" El Niño? It has been as dry as a La Niña in Socal so far since the beginning of October.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Down to 18.1, after a low temp of 6.6, and a high temp of 54.2! Quite an impressive 48 degree range on the day!

 

Looking forward to perhaps a half a foot of snow this weekend, but not looking forward to all the warm rain next week. Not loving the long range forecasts but it's not over, we still could be in for a Christmas treat.

 

 

Pretty nice spread. 40/29 here. Down to 32.