DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hmm. I wonder how old your book is?

That books records are from 1928 to 1988. There don't seem to be much if any records for Clare to the south. It looks like the average snowfall amounts really increases as you head north and northwest across the county. My wife's grandmother used to live to the west of Harrison about 6. 6 miles off of M61 at that time the area was mostly forest not sure how it is now. We did not go up there much in the winter time the few times we did there was snow on the ground but not as much as to the north of there. I know in the summer time it they did have some cold nights.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 37/28 there was no rain/snow. Grand Rapids is now -12.3” below where we should be for snowfall at this time. There was 34% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 37/25 the record high of 61 was set in 2015 and the record low of -6 was set in 1958. The wettest was in 1975 with 0.81” the most snowfall of 6.8” fell in 1973 the most snow on the ground was 15” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 34/30.

With clear skies the overnight low here in MBY fell to 17 but is now up to 21. The snow drought continues as we inch deeper into December. And Grand Rapids is now over a foot below where on average we should be for this date.  And 26.8" below where we were last year.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for SW lower Michigan

1920: Mild weather prevails across Lower Michigan with record highs in the upper 50s.

1973: A snowstorm drops about 8 inches of snow from Grand Rapids to Lansing

For SE lower Michigan

2017, a clipper rapidly strengthened upon approaching the area and brought significant snow accumulations. With calm winds and perfect temperatures, the environment was pristine for classic snow dendrites and efficient accumulation rates. A wide swath of 6 to 9 inches was observed along a northwest-to-southeast line from the Saginaw Valley into Detroit.

 2010, additional lake effect snow fell in the wake of the previous day snowstorm across the Thumb region. Storm totals reached 15 inches at Bad Axe and an estimated 20+ inches near the Lake Huron shoreline in Huron County. Wind gusts to 50 mph were reported across the northern Thumb region and created snow drifts in excess of 10 feet in some locations. The snow and blowing snow led to Blizzard conditions over Huron and Sanilac counties, which stranded at least two dozen cars.

1878, this day marked the first day of a streak of 38 days (December 13, 1878-January 20 1879) of temperatures at or below 32 degrees in southeastern Michigan.

 

[jaster220]

Chilly morning here. DTW at 22 degrees this hour, and I see the perennial cold location ARB has fallen to 16F

[Tom]

Congrats on your new endeavor @jaster220!  May 2024 be the best year yet...

[jaster220]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That'll be a nice upgrade.

I've come to realize I don't need endless months of snow, but I do like to get a good dose of the winter season each year. Going multiple years without like the EC is rough on a Michigan kid of that 70s Snow Show. Amount of snow is less important than getting that "deep winter feel" at some point during DJFM. From your comment I did this comparison, and yeah, you nailed it. For sure an upgrade in that dept.

1983-2023 (41 seasons) and the number of times that each site hit double-digit snow depths:

DTW 15/41 (37%), Gladwin 31/41 (76%), Houghton Lk 34/41 (83%) 

There's a CoCoRaHS observer about 5 miles east with 10 years of data. That area will get a lot of 4-6" events with only a couple hits above that in the last decade. Not really moving to Big Dog alley or anything, more a place where there is much more consistency of decent snow OTG.  

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I've come to realize I don't need endless months of snow, but I do like to get a good dose of the winter season each year. Going multiple years without like the EC is rough on a Michigan kid of that 70s Snow Show. Amount of snow is less important than getting that "deep winter feel" at some point during DJFM.

Hey, good luck on your move! It never hurts to do something new or different!

I think the winters of the 70s and 80s spoiled me and I miss those years of cold and snow especially around the holidays.

Check out this fun fact...compared Topeka January 1979 to January 2023. It's only a couple of data points but does illustrate how things have changed.

Jan 1979: avg hi 22, avg low 2

Jan 2023: avg hi 44.4, avg low 24.2 (lowest high was 23 for the month..higher than the average for Jan 1979)

[bud2380]

It will bode better for the rest of us south if the northern areas of the country finally fill up with snow.  Let's hope the GFS is on to something here.

 

[Hoosier]

Cross your fingers that it's not a mirage, but the period around the last week of December is starting to not look as bad as it did.

[gimmesnow]

I came her to whine but GFS really backed off the torch for the rest of the month.

[hawkstwelve]

Easily the snowiest run for almost the entire Central US so far this season. 

[hawkstwelve]

Almost all of that for the Sioux Falls area falls in the 24 hour period starting at midnight on Christmas Day. Talk about the most perfect timing ever! What a nice present from Santa!

Of course, it's important to keep in mind this is still 10+ days out and will likely not occur exactly like this, if it happens at all. But it's encouraging to see the potential show up again and again as we progress through model runs. Maybe, just maybe... 

[hawkstwelve]

Unfortunately, ensembles have really yet to catch on to this potential system(s). Probabilities for an inch or more of snow through 6pm Christmas Day remain stubbornly low, generally between 10-40% in the central and northern Plains. 

We had a superstition on the PNW side of the forum where if you told your family/friends/colleagues about a potential upcoming event too far in advance, it would end up not happening. If we had some more ensemble support I'd be tempted to take that risk but as it stands now it's not much more than some fantasyland model runs. 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unfortunately, ensembles have really yet to catch on to this potential system(s). Probabilities for an inch or more of snow through 6pm Christmas Day remain stubbornly low, generally between 10-40% in the central and northern Plains. 

We had a superstition on the PNW side of the forum where if you told your family/friends/colleagues about a potential upcoming event too far in advance, it would end up not happening. If we had some more ensemble support I'd be tempted to take that risk but as it stands now it's not much more than some fantasyland model runs. 

I'm now in the Christmas fun for snow

[Clinton]

The CFS came out with a different look today and a cold look.

[bud2380]

34 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unfortunately, ensembles have really yet to catch on to this potential system(s). Probabilities for an inch or more of snow through 6pm Christmas Day remain stubbornly low, generally between 10-40% in the central and northern Plains. 

We had a superstition on the PNW side of the forum where if you told your family/friends/colleagues about a potential upcoming event too far in advance, it would end up not happening. If we had some more ensemble support I'd be tempted to take that risk but as it stands now it's not much more than some fantasyland model runs. 

My famous quote to all my friends and family when I send them screenshots of potential snow is, "guaranteed to happen".  And it pretty much never does. LOL.  

[Madtown]

Sneak attack snow storm Friday night up this way? Seems pretty warm,  but all models showing it now!

 

Second go around on the rink. Hoping this one don't melt. Over 60 hours into build time in the last 2 weeks...Just brutal.

 

[gimmesnow]

Things are trending in the right direction, but honestly could they have trended worse? I was seeing shades of red I never saw in maps before.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Things are trending in the right direction, but honestly could they have trended worse? I was seeing shades of red I never saw in maps before.

Always seems darkest before the dawn

[hawkstwelve]

You can already see how different the GFS and Euro would end up being for the Christmas storm. Differences start showing up around day 8 and how a trough gets ejected out of the GOA. GFS wants to bring it quickly into the BC coast and phase it with the trough over the four corners region, creating a more robust storm to form out of the Rockies. Euro holds it back over the Pacific and keeps them separate, and effectively much weaker in the process. GEM lies somewhere in the middle.

Here's a day nine frame from the 12z Euro vs 12z GFS...

[hawkstwelve]

At a time like this, it's important to keep the 500mb skill scores in mind for each model. The GFS has been struggling a bit over this past week but is now about on par with the Euro. Meanwhile, the GraphCast AI model continues to remain a step above them both.

What does the GraphCast model show around day 9? It looks closer to the GFS solution by bringing the 500mb trough onshore near the BC coast. It's not quite as progressive as the GFS and it doesn't phase with the SW trough but still resembles it more closely than the Euro. It will be an interesting model battle to watch over the next week!

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies continue to hone in on that first half of January for some real winter. Perfect look on these charts today to get some action into the Plains. 

[Tom]

Yet again, the mountains of New Mexico are going to get rocked....Taos Ski Resort is expected to get 10-20" or more...I'm still sitting here trying to figure out when I can track my first legit Winter storm up in the mountains of Arizona.  Its starting to look like there a couple systems showing up right around Christmas and the following week.

 

[Niko]

On 12/12/2023 at 4:35 PM, Bryan1117 said:

This pattern epically sucks, however being able to grill out and maybe have a fire pit going outside on Christmas evening does sound nice.

Would gladly trade it for a lousy inch of snow on Christmas Eve… even though it looks like that’s going to be asking way too much.

Tbh, this weather feels soooo good. I think I am getting use to it. Great Christmas shopping weather for some also.

[Niko]

Dropping into the teens tanite but quickly recovering into the upper 40s tomorrow afternoon w sunshine and clouds mix. Then, mid 50s on Friday to maybe cracking the 60 degree mark. Absolutely gorgeous days.

[Andie]

FYI. 

NASA recommends looking for the Geminid meteor showers best viewing  starting around 9 p.m.local time on Wednesday evening and says optimal viewing time will likely be at 2 a.m. on Thursday, weather permitting.

Hope you have clear skies!

 

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Congrats on your new endeavor @jaster220!  May 2024 be the best year yet...

Many thanks amigo. Going to be trying out the lakeside lifestyle for the first time. (sample pic off the web, but our condo is on this lake)

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

The CFS came out with a different look today and a cold look.

These graphics drive me nuts when it's a tangled web like that. And what is with so many colors. I thought it was current month = black, and new month is a color. Can you break it down since I can't zoom up on your attachment very much at all. 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Many thanks amigo. Going to be trying out the lakeside lifestyle for the first time. (sample pic off the web, but our condo is on this lake)

Very nice ma friend!! Enjoy!

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

These graphics drive me nuts when it's a tangled web like that. And what is with so many colors. I thought it was current month = black, and new month is a color. Can you break it down since I can't zoom up on your attachment very much at all. 

Current week in red, next week in blue,  extended in purple. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has gone much stronger and nw with the eastern storm.  We get a quick shot of cold and wind.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro has gone much stronger and nw with the eastern storm.  We get a quick shot of cold and wind.

Indeed.  I had noticed the substantial westward trend on the GFS but wasn't sure how much stock to put in it.  Now the Euro has moved that way.

[Hoosier]

Too bad this system doesn't have more cold air to work with.  Very dynamic and coming from deep out of the Gulf with an usually far west track (assuming something like this verifies)... could've been fun for some areas.

 

[westMJim]

The snow drought continues, and Grand Rapids is now -13” below where we should be at this time. The official H/L yesterday was 41/22 I had a low of 17 in MBY. There was no precipitation the sun was out 47% of possible time. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 59 was set in 1975, 2015 and the record low of -1 was set in 1943. The wettest was 1.32” in 1975 the most snow fall of 5.1” was in 1907 and the most on the ground was 15” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 39/30.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for SW lower Michigan

1907: A snowstorm moves across Lower Michigan, dropping from 5 to 8 inches of snow.

1975: Record warmth continues for the second day across Lower Michigan. Morning lows in the upper 40s are followed by high temperatures near 60 degrees.

SE lower Michigan

1975, the daytime temperature rose to 65 degrees in Detroit, which is nearly 30 degrees above average.

The rest of the USA

1952 Trace of snow or sleet at or near Pensacola, Crestview, DeFuniak Springs, Quincy, Carrabelle, Tallahassee, St. Marks, Monticello, Madison, Mayo, Live Oak, Lake City, Glen St. Mary, and Hilliard in Florida. Frozen precipitation occurred before noon at most points, but happened in the afternoon at Mayo and Lake City and near Hilliard. Temperatures were above freezing and snow or sleet melted as it fell.

1997 Central Mississippi and western Alabama saw significant snowfall of 4 to 8 inches on this day. In Mississippi, this was one of the heavier snowfalls to occur since 1929. The weight of the snow caused limbs of trees to break, which knocked down power lines.

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Too bad this system doesn't have more cold air to work with.  Very dynamic and coming from deep out of the Gulf with an usually far west track (assuming something like this verifies)... could've been fun for some areas.

 

I figured that region of SONT just east of here would be set to score at some point. Not sure they will get much accumulation with the warmth of this system tho. Another dynamic system wasted on the shoulder seasons. 

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Too bad this system doesn't have more cold air to work with.  Very dynamic and coming from deep out of the Gulf with an usually far west track (assuming something like this verifies)... could've been fun for some areas.

 

Can't help but think of the Infamous Mach 1993 "Storm of the Century"....the track is almost identical...is there a repeat lurking??

 

[chescowxman]

Colder today with many spots in the county struggling to escape the 30's for high temps today. Warmer over the weekend with a pretty big Nor'easter coming up the coast by Sunday evening. The track will be too far inland or close to the coast to allow for anything but rain. Although we could see some snow flurries by Monday night. Temps will fall back to near normal levels for December for much of next week.

Records for today: High 65 (2015) / Low 4 (1989) / Rain 2.06" (1897) / Snow 8.7" (1917)

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Can't help but think of the Infamous Mach 1993 "Storm of the Century"....the track is almost identical...is there a repeat lurking??

 

was seeing/thinking that exact thing yesterday. Would not surprise me in the least that we something along those lines this winter.

DTX

However, amplified upper level ridge arching northwest through the Great Basin into Pacific
Northwest will allow a strong shortwave and buckling of the Polar
Jet to emerge as we end the Weekend into early Next Week. The trend
is to link up and merge with the strong storm system over the
southeastern United States, and a track along or west of the spine
of Appalachians can no longer be ruled out (see 00z GFS/EURO)

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

was seeing/thinking that exact thing yesterday. Would not surprise me in the least that we something along those lines this winter.

Yup, I was thinking about this scenario back in NOV when I saw this same pattern develop as a double barrel low inundated Florida and then tracked up the East Coast.  This year's LRC pattern is golden for a scenario like this to show up again this winter or even Spring.