DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Time to fire up a thread for the Christmas Eve/Day Storm?  If anyone has time later today, I think its a good idea since this storm is pretty much going to effect a lot of us (including me)...while many will experience rain, it's always fun tracking a Bowling Bowl system, esp during the Holiday.

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

I already looked into flying out to the Ozarks and the nearest airport is Columbia but there are no direct flights.  I'm trying to see what is better...fly in to STL or COU...hmmm???  I'm thrilled to see the pattern setting up, albeit, a little latter than I originally had through it would bc I originally called for the GOA to be gone by Christmas day.   +/- a couple days and that W NAMER ridge is firing up Big time...at least we won't be dealing with that ugly trough that hugged Valdez/Anchorage  in Alaska...see ya later!  

 

I would fly into St. Louis. How long are ya going to be there?

[CentralNebWeather]

Still talking about a change to snow somewhere over my area or west on Sunday afternoon or evening. Christmas miracle?  

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I would fly into St. Louis. How long are ya going to be there?

I'm not sure yet bc of scheduling that I need to figure out first...I'll keep ya post...Thanks for the feedback...I'm in agreement with you that STL would be better.

[Tom]

Storm Thread fired up...

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/25198-christmas-holiday-winter-storm-1220-1228/#comment-1227886

[Hawkeye]

The 500 mb pattern gets pretty messy this weekend into early next week, but it's looking good for some good rain around here.  The Friday light rain event has come back as well.  Much of the area is still in extreme drought, so this is much needed.  We don't want to be very dry going into spring.

[jaster220]

17 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Euro would give me a top 5 warm Christmas day.  So if it's not going to snow, let there be warmth. 

 I was too young for 1982 and  it obviously won't be close to that 65 degrees, but  my Dad still tells me memories of that day.  They had a football game in shorts in the field next to my grandparents house.   He said it felt like a summer day.   Of course the next year the complete opposite happened.  

Was a teenager and having had my youth colored with the frigid 70s winters of lore, I didn't know about strong Nino typical effects for our region (72-73 oddly had a cold-n-snowy Dec). The snow lover in me was not at all happy with that historically warm and brown Christmas. In a word, it was a major tragedy to me at the time. Iirc, we did get a dry gust front come through during the evening. Those were a consistent theme that winter as the primary storm track dumped snow on a line from Denver to MSP like clockwork. @gimmesnow would've been going crazy with that winter.  

[jaster220]

15 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS puts down some snow for some on this run.  Colder trends.

Glad all that snow over The Mitt is just LR "model static". That would not make for good moving conditions, lol. 

[jaster220]

Nice to get one solid winter's day yesterday with snow covered ground and temps solidly below freezing, at least in the Northland where I was prepping the new digs. Couple pics to give an idea what the new region is like.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Got down to 18 degrees here! I think so far in December that's my coolest.

Today will get to 50.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Glad all that snow over The Mitt is just LR "model static". That would not make for good moving conditions, lol. 

Moving in the snow would be terrible better get on it today  

[KTPmidMO]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm not sure yet bc of scheduling that I need to figure out first...I'll keep ya post...Thanks for the feedback...I'm in agreement with you that STL would be better.

Flying into Columbia would put you a lot closer to the Ozarks compared to St. Louis. Would be about half the drive from Columbia. But, COU will most likely be more expensive than STL or KCI.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, KTPmidMO said:

Flying into Columbia would put you a lot closer to the Ozarks compared to St. Louis. Would be about half the drive from Columbia. But, COU will most likely be more expensive than STL or KCI.

After a quick check, both STL and KCI are literally the same travel time to Osage Beach and a cheaper as you stated.  Thanks for the suggestions!

[mlgamer]

This would actually go in a January thread...and view with caution...NSFW...

 

[Black Hole]

4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

This would actually go in a January thread...and view with caution...NSFW...

 

I've been waiting for a nonsense run like this all year lol

[Clinton]

43 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

This would actually go in a January thread...and view with caution...NSFW...

 

We can only dream lol  but the GFS is picking up on the first of 2 storms that we'll see the first 10 days of Jan.  The 8th-10th I hope will really deliver.

[westMJim]

The winter solstice is at 10:27 PM tonight. The solstice mostly happens on December 21^st but can happen as early as December 20^th or as late as the 23^rd

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/27 there was no rain/snow. There was a reported trace of snow on the ground. There was 18% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 60 was set in 1967 and the record low of -8 was in 1989. The wettest was 1.26” in 1949 the most snowfall of 7.9” was in 2008 the most on the ground was 15” in 1951. Last year the H/L was 24/13 and there was 3” of snow on the ground.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for December 21st in southerner Lower Michigan.

1967: Temperatures soared to record highs around 60 degrees across Lower Michigan on the winter solstice. A sharp cold front came through in the evening and was followed by 2 to 4 inches of snow on the following day.

1989: It is one of the coldest December days in history across Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Muskegon and Grand Rapids is only 5 above zero, the lowest maximum temperature ever recorded in the month of December at both sites.  The daytime temperature rose to only 5 degrees in Flint! The normal high temperature for this time of the year in Flint is 32 degrees. Saginaw only reached 6 degrees and Detroit had a high of 8 degrees. These highs occurred after morning low temperatures below zero, including 6 below for Saginaw, 7 below for Flint, and 3 below for Detroit. This was just one of many cold days during December 1989 which is the coldest December on record for Saginaw and Flint, and the second coldest for Detroit.

[westMJim]

We now have 20 days of December 2023 in the record books. And it has indeed been a warm and almost snowless December. The mean of 37.0 is +5.3 there has been just 1.3” of snowfall. With just 1.10” of precipitation. The high so far is 58 and the low is a mild 22. Grand Rapids is still on track for one of the lowest snowfall totals for any December. And with just 3.2” for the season that is also on track for one of the lowest snowfall totals. In fact GR is now just under 17” below where we should be for this date in snowfall.

[Clinton]

Soggy but mild weekend ahead.  Fog expected on Christmas day will help the scenery. 

[mlgamer]

December temp anomaly for Topeka is now sitting at a blazing +5.4F with an avg temp of 40.6F for the month.  Not very winter-like to state the obvious.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

December temp anomaly for Topeka is now sitting at a blazing +5.4F with an avg temp of 40.6F for the month.  Not very winter-like to state the obvious.

I gotta see what PHX temp anomaly is for the month but it could be about the same out here as we have solidly been AN for the entire month and riding near record highs.  Once the storm arrives tomorrow, its going to be finally normal around here which will feel a bit chilly (low/mid 60's highs).

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

We now have 20 days of December 2023 in the record books. And it has indeed been a warm and almost snowless December. The mean of 37.0 is -5.3 there has been just 1.3” of snowfall. With just 1.10” of precipitation. The high so far is 58 and the low is a mild 22. Grand Rapids is still on track for one of the lowest snowfall totals for any December. And with just 3.2” for the season that is also on track for one of the lowest snowfall totals. In fact GR is now just under 17” below where we should be for this date in snowfall.

At some point it's going to get cold and we will get some snow.  The question is do we actually flip to winter this year for a longer period?  Or does it present itself briefly and go back to more of the same?    Last year was a fast start, then a long snowless period and then the snow machine turned on.  

[Tom]

Here is the latest JAN outlook from CPC...

[chescowxman]

I hope all of you enjoy the last day of Fall as winter begins this evening at 10:27pm. Great early winter weather continues right through Christmas day with only the next couple days running near to below normal temperatures. Well above normal temps by Christmas day with readings near 50 degrees. There is a slight chance of some snow or rain showers before dawn on Saturday. Our next solid chance of rain will be on Tuesday the 26th.

Records for today: High 62 (1971) / Low 1 below (1942) / Rain 1.56" (1902) / Snow 2.0" (1959)

[Beltrami Island]

After a solidly white Halloween, looks like its going to rely on this being accurate for a white Christmas.  I think the last fully brown Christmas for mby was possibly 1999.  2011 just barely escaped with minor snowfall 23rd-24th that pretty much all melted a couple days later.  

[Minny_Weather]

14 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

After a solidly white Halloween, looks like its going to rely on this being accurate for a white Christmas.  I think the last fully brown Christmas for mby was possibly 1999.  2011 just barely escaped with minor snowfall 23rd-24th that pretty much all melted a couple days later.  

Check out the storm thread for these systems.

I said over there that I am actually more invested in the secondary low that currently looks to track over WI on the 26th. For me at least, that one looks to have enough cold air to work with if we can get a westward shift over the next 5 days.

Hopefully you get a white Christmas from the primary low, god knows the northland needs it. As of right now, it looks like Duluth, which has a historical 98% probability of a white Christmas at the airport, is going to see a brown Christmas.

[Minny_Weather]

Roseau, which has never had a brown Christmas ever (actually kinda surprising), is also in danger of changing that. Same with the famously-cold Embarrass.

[Minny_Weather]

Digging a bit deeper into this, the following locations in MN have a historic 100% probability of >1" OTG at Christmas on record. Some of these do surprise me given their locations in the Plainsy far NW part of the state.

*Locations with a * have 40+ years of record

• Agassiz Wildlife Refuge
• Babbitt
• Big Falls
• Cass Lake
• Cloquet*
• Cook
• Cotton
• Crane Lake
• Gunflint Lake
• Hoyt Lakes
• Isabella (also 100% of 5"+)
• Island Lake
• Park Rapids*
• Pigeon River Bridge
• Pine River Dam
• Remer
• Roseau
• Tower
• Virginia (only 30 years on record, surprising for a relatively big town)
• Walker*
• Whiteface Reservoir
• Winton

Undoubtedly this list would be shorter if snowfall records had been kept longer in most of these locations, especially locations in NW MN but it is still amazing that this list is probably going to be reduced to nearly nothing this year. Just for funsies, AXN, where I live, is at 87% after 54 years of record. 

[Black Hole]

Starting to see more runs like this. Maybe something finally happens but especially in the pattern we will have it requires a lot to go right. There won't be much cold air advecting, its generating in place...and that always makes it difficult. 

[westMJim]

21 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Digging a bit deeper into this, the following locations in MN have a historic 100% probability of >1" OTG at Christmas on record. Some of these do surprise me given their locations in the Plainsy far NW part of the state.

Here are a couple of locations in Michigan that could have a green Christmas. At the current time Sault Ste Marie reports no snow on the ground. If there is no snow on the ground Christmas morning that will be just the 4th time there has been a green Christmas records go back to 1887  there. The current 3 are 2015, 2006 and 1931.  To the west at Marquette they now have just 2" on the ground. The lowest snow depth there on any Christmas is a trace in 2015 and 2006.

Here is the web cams from Munising

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

and at the bridge 

https://www.mackinacbridge.org/fares-traffic/bridge-cam/

 

[Tom]

Nice signal for a storm train as we open up 2024...time to explore the mountains of Arizona!  You guys out east..."The Southwest to Midwest" connection shall be more interesting with the cold air infiltrating the pattern.  Last couple runs off the Euro Op, show what has been common up in Canada this year as the Hudson Bay Block should now SEED the cold farther south, esp with the EPO going negative and the MJO playing ball.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nice signal for a storm train as we open up 2024...time to explore the mountains of Arizona!  You guys out east..."The Southwest to Midwest" connection shall be more interesting with the cold air infiltrating the pattern.  Last couple runs off the Euro Op, show what has been common up in Canada this year as the Hudson Bay Block should now SEED the cold farther south, esp with the EPO going negative and the MJO playing ball.

I'm looking for 2 snow producing storms the first 10 days of January, hoping I can get hit by at least 1 of them.  GEFS is starting to light up.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Digging a bit deeper into this, the following locations in MN have a historic 100% probability of >1" OTG at Christmas on record. Some of these do surprise me given their locations in the Plainsy far NW part of the state.

*Locations with a * have 40+ years of record

• Agassiz Wildlife Refuge
• Babbitt
• Big Falls
• Cass Lake
• Cloquet*
• Cook
• Cotton
• Crane Lake
• Gunflint Lake
• Hoyt Lakes
• Isabella (also 100% of 5"+)
• Island Lake
• Park Rapids*
• Pigeon River Bridge
• Pine River Dam
• Remer
• Roseau
• Tower
• Virginia (only 30 years on record, surprising for a relatively big town)
• Walker*
• Whiteface Reservoir
• Winton

Undoubtedly this list would be shorter if snowfall records had been kept longer in most of these locations, especially locations in NW MN but it is still amazing that this list is probably going to be reduced to nearly nothing this year. Just for funsies, AXN, where I live, is at 87% after 54 years of record. 

Note 1981-2010 map

[Black Hole]

Several ensemble members with big snow storms in the 2nd week. I'll take number 18! 

[Black Hole]

A summary of the big picture.  

[jaster220]

Been snow OTG all week, and now this.

 

Certainly not deep, but a lot more like winter than elsewhere.

[Andie]

57*. Rain and it’s very welcomed. 
High tomorrow 69. Rain will let up.  

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Several ensemble members with big snow storms in the 2nd week. I'll take number 18! 

GEFS is across the board terrible for me, with maybe 1-2 members actually giving me >4" thru the end of clown range. I actually have more members giving me 0".

It's El Niño I know, but give me SOMETHING D****T.

[westMJim]

Welcome to spring whoops I mean winter. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 39/27 there was no rain/snow and no sunshine. December snowfall is now a foot below average and for the season it is now -17.5” For today the average H/L is 34/23 the record high of 57 was set in 1941 and the record low of -11 was set in 1989. The wettest was 1.07” in 1920 the most snowfall of 8.5” was set in 1951 and that year also had the most on the ground with 19” Last year the H/L was 34/15 there was 3.8” of snowfall and there was 3” on the ground at 7 AM. The overnight low here in MBY was 39.