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DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Look quick before it's gone again on the next run - a ridge over AK! A sight for sore eyes.

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The blob returns.  Never thought I be rooting for an Alaska ridge. When we lived in the Pacific Northwest, definitely not. Still have flashbacks from the ridge that wouldn’t die. 

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50 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Asia is getting the extreme cold right now, it is projected to move towards Alaska before setting up for somewhere in the CONUS

I have always been under the impression Arctic air for the CONUS doesn't come from Alaska as a very strong general rule.  Usually Nunavut or Greenland with cross polar flow is the source.  Anything is possible but waiting For a PV to drop from Alaska to the CONUS is very rare.  

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3 hours ago, WBadgersW said:

I sas hoping to go snowmobiling up in Eagle River the first week in January. Really starting to doubt if it's going to happen...

Gonna need a lot to happen. Pur 2" of snow held tough till about noon today in the woods. Bare ground everywhere now. Water on top of all the lakes. Looks like March. it can change in a week, but sure seems the extended offers little hope before the 29th

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Surprised some counties weren't upgraded to a warning tbh

image.png.35f17835fd82bff5194669fb87b3fae3.png

I could do this:

image.png.7545140aeb1fffa456c5f35048e791cf.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It has been a warm overnight in MBY with the temperature staying at 50 for the low and there is now some light rain falling. The official H/L yesterday was 54/36 there was no rain/snow. GR is now just under 10" below average in the snowfall department and will add to that in the coming days. At it looks to stay mostly snow free for a long time yet. There was 33% of sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 38/26 the record high of 59 was set in 1946 and the record low of -1 was set in 1964. The most rain fall of 0.81" fell in 1907 the most snow fall of 4.6" fell in 1995 the most snow on the ground was 4.6" in 1909. Last year the H/L was 34/28 and there was 0.6" of snowfall.

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There is some not so great news going on with the MJO.  It looks like it's going to struggle to move out of the torchy phase 6 and when it does it pretty much stays in the null phase or gets to a low amplitude 7,8,1.  Lots of spread on the ensemble members but not a great look as of this morning.

GEFS.png

ECMF.png

JMAN.png

EMON.png

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32 minutes ago, Clinton said:

There is some not so great news going on with the MJO.  It looks like it's going to struggle to move out of the torchy phase 6 and when it does it pretty much stays in the null phase or gets to a low amplitude 7,8,1.  Lots of spread on the ensemble members but not a great look as of this morning.

GEFS.png

ECMF.png

JMAN.png

EMON.png

This sucks. 

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The severe outlooks expand to a slightly bigger area now. Ashland is still kind of on the outer corner of this Marginal but I'll take anything. I have not heard thunder since September 28th. ⛈️

 

2023-12-9_2.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Winter (at least where it has visited the last couple of weeks) is on life-support this morning..

Image

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A bit foggy this AM but it should burn away later and yield a nice mild afternoon. Clouds will be increasing later today with rain arriving by tomorrow morning. Windy and rainy through tomorrow night....all models still show the rain mixing with and changing to some wet snow by Monday morning. Of note the NWS does not have snow in the forecast at this time. However, If it does occur it will be a wet snow with temps never falling below freezing....this does not mean snow cannot accumulate especially in the higher elevations of the county on non-paved surfaces etc.
Records for today: 71 (1966) / Low 6 (1989) / Rain 1.80" (2009) / Snow 7.8" (2005)
image.png.b649d15c9c4e8fe6f3c30e092863cb10.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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NWS Hastings morning disco continues the bad news of this horrible pattern around here and many other places. 

“there is pretty good ensemble agreement that above-normal temperatures continue through the following week as well. Its starting to look like those "dreaming of a white Christmas" might need to keep dreaming until 2024.”

Bah humbug. 

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Ski hill closed due to rain. Wilmot decimated.

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I don't know how they are gonna recover from this given sunday and tuesday nights are the only nights to make snow in the 10 day forecast. And the 22nd is when Christmas season starts. What a disaster here. Wilmot sucks because it's owned by Vail and they're evil but the other resorts around here deserve better.

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Top 10 Snowstorms by Decade for Chester County PA 1890's through 2020's to date

image.png.e80fb077e4b10240915c791406352ac6.png

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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

There is some not so great news going on with the MJO.  It looks like it's going to struggle to move out of the torchy phase 6 and when it does it pretty much stays in the null phase or gets to a low amplitude 7,8,1.  Lots of spread on the ensemble members but not a great look as of this morning.

GEFS.png

ECMF.png

JMAN.png

EMON.png

Low amplitude phase 8/1 wouldn't be the worst thing, especially with eastward extent in the US.  But it actually has to get there and not have the can kicked down the road.

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I think DTW metro broke a record high today. It was really warm w temps in the upper 50s and in spots, possibly hit 60F or  maybe even better. Some sunshine to go along w that as well. Absolutely gorgeous day. No snow is in sight until further notice. Next week looks like lots of sunshine all week w above normal temps to even way above b4 getting back to near normal or slightly above by weeks end and into the weekend. What happened to the good ol' Decembers when it used to snow. Definitely looks like this month will be wasted. Hopefully not.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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My son is currently in VT for grad school.  They had a flood warning for rain and melting snow sun/mon.  But he is now under a WSW for 4-16+ inches for the same time frame.  Forecasters said it’ll be colder than they thought and it’ll switch over way faster.   
So it is snowing somewhere.  

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12 hours ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Wow, never seen grass in Gaylord in December!  Dumpster fire of a weather pattern for us snow lovers!  

Actually, there was even more grassy days the first 3 weeks of Dec '93. At least they've had constant snow coverage the first 9 mornings this year.

image.png.3d76ffd39c9b3c4533b91692ccad0ef6.png

This year..

image.png.1babe98eba01b8d7f5d46b4e70ed81ff.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

I think DTW metro broke a record high today. It was really warm w temps in the upper 50s and in spots, possibly hit 60F or  maybe even better. Some sunshine to go along w that as well. Absolutely gorgeous day. No snow is in sight until further notice. Next week looks like lots of sunshine all week w above normal temps to even way above b4 getting back to near normal or slightly above by weeks end and into the weekend. What happened to the good ol' Decembers when it used to snow. Definitely looks like this month will be wasted. Hopefully not.

Dec '14 says "hi"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 58/39. That 58 was reached at 11AM and it was the 2nd warmest ever at GR for any November 9th with the 59 in 1946 being the only warmer one.  There was 0.04” of rain fall. There was no snow fall. The peak wind gust was 59MPH out of the SW. The sun was out 23% of the time. For today the average H/L is 38/26 the record high of 62 was set in 1971 and the record low of 5 was set in 1977. The wettest day was 2.13” in 1971. The most snow fall was 7.2” in 2009 The most snow on the ground was 9” in 1962 and 1958. Last year the H/L was 34/32 and there was 0.2” of snowfall.

As has been the trend this late fall/early winter season it has been mild with near or just above average temperatures and almost no snowfall. At the current time GR is on a pace that could give GR a record low snowfall total for December. The least snowfall for any December is 1” in 2014. Other very low snowfall totals for December are 2.3” in 1912 and 1913. 2.5” in 2015 2.6” 1979. We are setting for a possible very low seasonal snowfall total as well. Something to keep a eye on in the days ahead.

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Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan.

1971: Record highs in the lower 60s are recorded across Lower Michigan as a southerly flow of warm moist air precedes a cold front. Record rains of around 2 inches fall as the cold front moves through.

2009: Near blizzard conditions develop as heavy snow combines with strong winds. From 12 to 16 inches of snow piles up across much of western Lower Michigan from December 9th to the 11th.

1876, the overnight temperature plummeted to -9 degrees in Detroit, 34 degrees below the average overnight temperature for that day.

And in the USA

1969 A severe ice storm hit Boston, Massachusetts causing much damage to orchards.

 

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Barely had a t'storm last night. Some lightning 5 or 6 miles out from Ashland, and we had a wimpy amount of rainfall out of yesterday. 

I heard some people got hurt/killed in last night's tornado activity.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Rain should be spreading in from the west by late this morning. The models still show a transition to snow from west to east across the area before dawn tomorrow. Both the NAM and the NWS are focused on the higher elevations here in Western Chester, Western Montgomery and Berks Counties for the best chance of an accumulation. Both the NAM and GFS are model in the 3" to 4" amounts for these areas. However, the NWS has only up to 1" possible in these areas. The limiting factor will be temperatures which should remain above freezing in all areas so while I am sure there will be some accumulation where it does snow on unpaved surfaces...unless the rates are heavy enough any issues on the road look slight.image.thumb.png.524f691c558e0da675ac94cc81969b1e.png
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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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How's that saying go...."A Cut-Off Low is a Weatherman's Woe?"  I remember vividly this scenario playing out back when Gary Lezak commented on it during one of his blog's.  It was back on Nov 14th and the models are definitely picking up on this massive cutoff system off the west coast near California.  This, to me, is a clear indication of what appears to be a 30-day "Harmonic" repeating pattern.  I commented on this a couple weeks back in one of my posts.   I will pay more attn to this feature in future cycles and see if it is a repeating theme.

Nov 14th Gary Lezak.jpeg

 

At the same time this was happening off the West Coast, we had a very similar cutoff system that tracked along the southern U.S. boarder all the way from Arizona/NM, along the GOM coast into Florida from NOV 13th-17th.  Well, low and behold, look at this similar pattern that is going to happen this coming week! 

 11.gif

 

With that being said, is there a 30-day harmonic pattern???  Its fascinating seeing this pattern repeat and evolve as we are fully into the 2nd cycle of the LRC.

Once the models figure out what to do with the massive trough that will spin for a few days off the west coast, I'm fully anticipating what I have called "The Southwest to Midwest Connection" part of the pattern this year.  The Solstice Period through the Holidays will feature this pattern.  Storms and more storms coming out of the 4 corners...

 

0z EPS...from the Solstice thru Christmas Eve...Now, wouldn't it be "Merry Nice"...to "Marry" some COLD Air with these potential systems??  Someone needs to Bust out the Snow Magnet because our Sub is lacking some White Gold for Santa to fly in on his sleigh.  Lets go!

1.gif

 

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Wasn't up at 7 am to see if this fresh snow was already OTG, but if so I would imagine it could be entered as a 1" depth at official recording time and yesterday's torch-off would go unrevealed in the data set. 

image.png.7a808184a4a75b5808fe6d3270cca7d7.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Yup, it's another two weeks of winter in February type of winter.

Interestingly, February/March were kind of like the new Dec/Jan back when I was in the northwest. But 2020-2022 featured terrible late winters east of the cascades. It wasn't a consistent trend, but it was there.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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