December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Waiting in the lift line at bachelor right now, today is the re-opening day. It opened last Saturday but it's been closed every day since then, now it's opening back up. Pretty nice day up here, looking forward to ski.

 

How are the chances looking for a widespread cold or snow event on Christmas? Impossible at this point or still possibly but very unlikely? I haven't been paying much attention to the long range these last few days.

Not looking good unfortunately. Our run of amazing pre, during, post Christmas goodies of the last two years seems to be over.

Phil’s Fuzz has spoken. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Looks a little too distilled for much in the way of a decent inversion. Lots of blah 49/38 type days. Then we mix out with some fresh drizzle just as the high pressure begins to strengthen a bit.

That was my thought too. Typically we aren't going to get a good fake cold pattern without a little bit of real cold to start with or draw from. 

[fubario]

11 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

As someone who has spent the past 20+ years in the commercial aircraft interiors business I can speak to that.

Short answer, It's required by law.  Inevitably someone will try to smoke, and authorities want to minimize the chance that the fool throws a lit cigarette in the garbage can, which will in all likelihood be full of flammable materials.

Most "ashtrays" now are just big enough for 1 cigarette.  Last lav design I was a part of, we initially thought/hoped we didn't need one  this day and age, but a quick consultation with our certification experts and we found out that was not the case.

 

The waste can is designed to contain the fire for a period of time (not that I would recommend testing it) should some moron decide to toss a lit cigarette or match in there.  A CRAP TON of design effort goes into these waste compartments to achieve this, and they are rather expensive.  We put an extinguisher system in one of the waste compartments, but I can't remember if it was the lav or galley.  All of the materials used in the aircraft are designed to self-extinguish, and about 10 years ago it became a requirement to test the toxicity levels of the smoke.

All that said, I highly recommend not smoking in the lav or tampering with the detector.  You will have nice people with guns and badges waiting for you at the nearest airport who will put shiny bracelets on you and ruin your trip.

For the last design I was a part of, the engineers did a fire containment test burn, but did not conduct the test far enough from the building, and ended up filling the building with smoke.  OOPS!

 

I was on a domestic flight many years ago where more than one person was caught smoking in the lav. When the plane landed the cops came on board and took them away. Turned out they were from Russia and apparently didn't know that not smoking in an airplane lav was 'a thing'. lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

How are the chances looking for a widespread cold or snow event on Christmas? Impossible at this point or still possibly but very unlikely? I haven't been paying much attention to the long range these last few days.

Way too early to say. Model accuracy this far out is basically no better than throwing dice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Check out New Year's 1924, which I've always seen as a pretty overlooked blast in what was a moderate Nino season.

Portland ripped off 7 straight subfreezing highs and Eugene landed itself a 22/8 day. Even Newport managed a 32/10 day on the 1st.

Just a drop in the bucket for back then, but that would make some serious waves if it happened in this day and age.

At SLE they had a 28/5 that day. 

The December blast was pretty top tier. 9 sub-freezing highs in a 12 day stretch at SLE with the other 3 days having highs of 33. A 19/8 on the 18th and 27/5 and 23/5 on the 25th and 26th. 

The rest of that winter was a bit of a torch fest, but I think we would all make that trade...

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At SLE they had a 28/5 that day. 

The December blast was pretty top tier. 9 sub-freezing highs in a 12 day stretch at SLE with the other 3 days having highs of 33. A 19/8 on the 18th and 27/5 and 23/5 on the 25th and 26th. 

The rest of that winter was a bit of a torch fest, but I think we would all make that trade...

Decembers were something else in that 1919-32 stretch. Kind of like the roll February had been on up until 2024.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Decembers were something else in that 1919-32 stretch. Kind of like the roll February had been on up until 2024.

Maybe starting in 2025 it will be January that takes its turn. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a wet pattern setting up to end the month? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just saw a post on FB that in the past 10 years, PDX has broken their record for warmest month in every month except January, July (!), and December. Could do December this year...

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Check out New Year's 1924, which I've always seen as a pretty overlooked blast in what was a moderate Nino season.

Portland ripped off 7 straight subfreezing highs and Eugene landed itself a 22/8 day. Even Newport managed a 32/10 day on the 1st.

Just a drop in the bucket for back then, but that would make some serious waves if it happened in this day and age.

Both of those December’s pulled off 20F highs with no snow cover here.   Basically unheard of in todays climate.  

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw a post on FB that in the past 10 years, PDX has broken their record for warmest month in every month except January, July (!), and December. Could do December this year...

Meanwhile, Battle Ground has set 3 record warm months in the past 10 years (April 2016, June 2021, and November 2016).

The wonders of UHI.

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The pattern leading up to Christmas is basically the inverse of a cold pattern here.  Just a beast of a trough over the NE Pacific.  Would likely be warm and wet with a possible stormy pattern if the trough shifts east slightly. 
 

 

Given the upcoming extension of the east-Asian jet, this makes sense. Could be a major AL/+PNA pattern starting around the holidays.

[ShawniganLake]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would say that pattern looks extreme and unlikely to verify but the 00Z EPS was not that different. 

 

Maybe. The EPS has a little more ridging along the coast but the ensemble agreement on the huge trough offshore is about as good as it gets at this range.  

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I would say that pattern looks extreme and unlikely to verify but the 00Z EPS was not that different. 

 

id say it has a lot of support and will happen, maybe not as extreme, but mild conditions and a brown xmas most likely, even over here

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

Given the upcoming extension of the east-Asian jet, this makes sense. Could be a major AL/+PNA pattern starting around the holidays.

Gonna be tough for this to happen but also have the CA/SW storms pickup around the same time...

[Mercurial]

-sn, 1” accum

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

id say it has a lot of support and will happen, maybe not as extreme, but mild conditions and a brown xmas most likely, even over here

Grass is still quite green in this area.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Gonna be tough for this to happen but also have the CA/SW storms pickup around the same time...

Shplit flow.  

[BLI snowman]

55 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Both of those December’s pulled off 20F highs with no snow cover here.   Basically unheard of in todays climate.  

Yeah, they both were pretty dry airmasses north of Seattle. Eugene was the big winner for snow in December 1924.

[TT-SEA]

This looks Nino-like to me...

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Grass is still quite green in this area.

Yea it is. Honestly might need to mow soon if we stay 60+ 

[Deweydog]

Redfin app has been randomly sending me homes in Fargo, ND. Hmmmm…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z Euro. I’m in the blue!

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This looks Nino-like to me...

 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z Euro. I’m in the blue!

Nanaimo getting smacked  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Nanaimo getting smacked  

Nanaimo and Cumberland rank high on my places to consider living if I ever leave Vancouver.

[iFred]

I don’t think we’ll ever see any meaningful snow in the lowlands south of the border again. With Phil’s multi year Giga Nina, and climate change, everyone is going to get the Eugene winter special.

It was a fun ten year run with the forums, but maybe now is the time to shut it down.

RIP Winter 2023/24/25/26/27/28/29/30, we hardly knew thee.

[Omegaraptor]

First week of December is over.

Average temp MTD:

Portland 53.1F

Eugene 52.8F

Sacramento 52.6F

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, fubario said:

I was on a domestic flight many years ago where more than one person was caught smoking in the lav. When the plane landed the cops came on board and took them away. Turned out they were from Russia and apparently didn't know that not smoking in an airplane lav was 'a thing'. lol

Russia is another world when it comes to stuff like that, and aviation in general.  We had a customer come to us asking if we would be willing to do an interior reconfiguration on their Ilyushin passenger planes (they were built in the 70's/early 80's.)

Our main concept development guy was an older British dude, got his start in the industry in the early 70's, came over to the US in the 90's.  He has forgotten more information about aircraft than what most people know.

He said to it would be in our best interest to not walk, but RUN away from that request.  For our interiors our tolerances are typically +/- 2 to 3 decimal places.  Some stuff is only 1 decimal place (door gaps, etc).

It's been a while but I think the frame spacing tolerance (which is critical) is usually 2-3 decimal places as well.  For those old Russian aircraft, the frame spacing could be as much as 6" off!! 

 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Redfin app has been randomly sending me homes in Fargo, ND. Hmmmm…

I was actually in a meeting with someone from Fargo this morning and they were telling us about the record warmth there.  

[Mercurial]

Starting to receive cancellation requests at my STR on Whitefish Mountain.  Probably due to poor snow conditions, although there stayed reasons are normally different.  This winter so far is a definite candidate for worst ever, if the long term pattern plays out as forecasted.

[MossMan]

Currently have some very exciting 41 degree drizzle!!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter is saved!!!! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Currently have some very exciting 41 degree drizzle!!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter is saved!!!! 

That is not summer-like.   

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nanaimo and Cumberland rank high on my places to consider living if I ever leave Vancouver.

Both nice choices. I’d go Cumberland.  Outskirts of Nanaimo is nice.  Downtown is a train wreck. Drugs and homeless issues.  

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently have some very exciting 41 degree drizzle!!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter is saved!!!! 

Still clear blue skies and frosty here.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess if never noticed it when white plastic like that, this one stuck out on the embraer.  cool insight

The one in the picture was just a random image I found on the net that looked like the one we spec'ed for the aircraft I was helping develop.  We were going with an aluminum powder coated part (I don't think we would be able to get away with plastic.)

For the Embraer, they are probably either a Cres (steel) or anodized aluminum part.  We actually supply the Embraer interiors, and my primary responsibility now is quoting retrofit interiors for the Regional Jet Market.  Been very busy the past few months getting the old Horizon Q400s reconfigured to go to new customers.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Shplit flow.  

Certainly possible. Generally, mega +PNA is not great for CA/SW storminess.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Ended up with 1.14" yesterday, and it cooled off quickly last night under clear skies.  It was 37 when I took the dog out at 10pm, and the grass was starting to get crunchy.  Cooled to 35 at some time after midnight. 

 

Had the sun make an appearance about an hour or so ago but back under solid overcast.

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, iFred said:

I don’t think we’ll ever see any meaningful snow in the lowlands south of the border again. With Phil’s multi year Giga Nina, and climate change, everyone is going to get the Eugene winter special.

It was a fun ten year run with the forums, but maybe now is the time to shut it down.

RIP Winter 2023/24/25/26/27/28/29/30, we hardly knew thee.

Giga Nino?

[Front Ranger]

Two more epic torches for west/central Canada on the 12z Euro. Glad I didn't book a ski trip to Banff this month.