January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. Euro looking pretty good.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. Euro looking pretty good.

Better than the gfs

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. .. Meh

[lowlandsnow]

So close to greatness

[ShawniganLake]

Euro brings a rather potent storm through around day 8. Heavy rain and wind in the lowlands with big mountain snow.  This is a very wet run around Portland.  Over 5” of rain. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. .. Meh

Just can’t get the blocking quite right

[Kolk1604]

Yeah sure is wet 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS.... Well, onto the EPS and 12z runs tomorrow morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah sure is wet 

 

Very!

[SpaceRace22]

So I found 4 more AI models in addition to GraphCast. They are all very low resolution overviews of the general pattern and don't really show the finer details, but fwiw every single one shows a 500mb pattern that is either excellent, or very close to excellent by day 10. Definitely very impressive consistency for 240 hours out.

All of these frames from the 12z runs today and are for hour 240, which is 12z Thur 1/11/23.

12z AIFS: 

12z FourCastNet:

12z FuXi:

12z GraphCast:

12z Pangu-Weather:

Links to each, for anyone who wants to play with these themself:

AIFS - https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401011200&projection=opencharts_pacific&valid_time=202401111200

FourCastNet - https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fourcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401011200&projection=opencharts_pacific&valid_time=202401111200

FuXi - https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401011200&projection=opencharts_pacific&valid_time=202401111200

GraphCast - https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401011200&projection=opencharts_pacific&valid_time=202401111200

Pangu-Weather - https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/pangu_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401011200&projection=opencharts_pacific&valid_time=202401111200

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. El Nino takes a vacation with La Nina taking over!

[lowlandsnow]

WINTER IS CANCELLED

[snow_wizard]

Graph Cast is way more continental with the second trough than other models and it drops the 850s to -8 over SEA a little after this.

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Sorry if this was already mentioned, but just wanted to throw out there that our beloved Spire is looking probably the best of any model at Day 10 right now. Just like I've *always* said, the Spire is far superior to any other model and should be weighted above all else:

Don't forget about the Graph Cast.  Looks very similar if not better.

[snow_wizard]

Textbook Omega block.  I sure hate the views on this model though.  Bad choices.

[snow_wizard]

I think the ECMWF operational is wrong.  Just no way the pattern being shown will bring as mild of temps as what it's showing.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So I found 4 more AI models in addition to GraphCast. They are all very low resolution overviews of the general pattern and don't really show the finer details, but fwiw every single one shows a 500mb pattern that is either excellent, or very close to excellent by day 10. Definitely very impressive consistency for 240 hours out.

All of these frames from the 12z runs today and are for hour 240, which is 12z Thur 1/11/23.

 

Weird how they are all so amplified and have the classic back digging, which means cold for us.

[lowlandsnow]

EPS is bad it's over. Time to call it a year hopefully next year will be better.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

EPS is bad it's over

Ok.

It's not even done yet BTW.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seasonably cool first day of 2024. Ended up with a 48/37 spread. Some morning fog then a good deal of afternoon sunshine, with east winds kicking in late morning and high clouds moving in toward sunset.

Cleared out again this evening. Nice view of the half moon rising earlier. It is currently down to 39. Nice to have some wintery temps back at least.

Edited January 2 by Cascadia_Wx

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

EPS is bad it's over. Time to call it a year hopefully next year will be better.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Allright I was wrong about that. The earlier part of the run was garbage though.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looks pretty good.  How about around day 10

[Meatyorologist]

IMO, the real window for an Arctic outbreak this year is the 14th-22nd. After that it's a tossup depending on the SPV or volcanism or Rob Nelson or whatever.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Allright I was wrong about that. The earlier part of the run was garbage though.

It’s a small step back but not “garbage” by any means.

[Gradient Keeper]

41.7 with real gusty east winds roaring through at times.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks pretty good.  How about around day 10

 

It is always better for improvements in the short run, but even at day 10 you can see the Kona low and the retrogression taking shape.

[Meatyorologist]

No night shift?? 06z is running!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init/Day 0

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

4 Run Trend

[Tanis Leach]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Hilarious and highly amusing.

And a) you all knew it was coming and b) odds are pretty high it will flip back.

Rule #1 with weather models for me: anything beyond 10 days I will not take seriously. 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

Wow. Textbook.