Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
The EPS weeklies (and even more-so today’s 12z EPS) don’t hold the MJO over the WPAC/dateline very long, and instead build the lower frequency forcing into the E-Hem, with subsidence developing over the IPWP/WPAC.
I’m very bullish on a potent niña-like pattern in June now. The return to E-Hem forcing will coincide with the onset of Asian monsoons which changes the teleconnections to Indo-China convection.
Allegheny Highlands will never be humid subtropical given the degree of orographic lifting/cloud cover. It would evolve to Cfb (oceanic) instead, unless warming exceeds 8°C at the very least.
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