January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Front Ranger]

Whelp, Euro says historic is definitely back on the table.

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

That makes sense -- historically the value of the op was higher resolution than the ensemble control, but that isn't the case anymore. 

We should get a beer soon. I think there is some stuff that I can share with you that will give some insight.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Euro drinkin the Henny this morning I see.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a chilly and rainy 45/38 spread on Tuesday, the second day of the year. Yesterday was mostly cloudy and dry with rain starting late in the evening. Still on the coolish side with a 47/41 spread.

A rainy night but it has tapered off this morning. Low of 42, 44 now. Light to moderate east winds have remained persistent at this location since New Year’s Day. Have picked up about .70” for the month, and 2024, to date.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

This looks catastrophic, pipe busting days ahead 

get to wrappin'

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

564 dm at Anchorage. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man that inflection point in the pattern is still there next Tues/Wed. We have a long way to go with this one. Small differences will have massive consequences down the road.

Siberia trough at that timeframe?

[MV_snow]

[Doinko]

This euro run is colder with 850s than yesterday's 12z

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro drinkin the Henny this morning I see.

 

Ah nvm not as cold but still

[Kolk1604]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro drinkin the Henny this morning I see.

 

All that snow cover. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Great Euro run! Hopefully the EPS improves as well.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro drinkin the Henny this morning I see.

 

We may see wind chill advisory if this run verifies. First in modern era?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its in the teens in the middle of the day next Friday with snow on the ground.   This is only 8 days away.  

 

Mid 20s at Astoria, 31 at Florence. 

[TacomaWx]

498DM almost into skagit county on this run lol. I don’t really think it’ll verify this cold but this is still a very good sign that later next week could be fun. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro drinkin the Henny this morning I see.

 

da fuq?

[iFred]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These patterns can be horrible for central sound with shadowing, might only see snow with the front. Way to early to know for sure but the cmc shows this as well.

Where I live in Everett is often shadowed by a low until the axis passes the Olympics, if approaching from the Southwest. When we get northerly flows, we get the inverse through a CZ and usually it can be pretty stationary. There was a similar event in April of 2019 where the CZ and an enhanced cell stayed over Everett for about an hour and a half, causing some pretty significant flooding. I've often thought the proverbial weenie question "what if that was all snow?", maybe I'll get my answer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

504 thickness line into the Willamette Valley!

I'd have drive 5 miles east to experience this.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

With snowcover, this would be even colder.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

About the same as the Euro

Graphcast uses the initialization set that the Euro uses for forecasting, so it makes sense why that have the same skill inside three days.

ECMWF/EPS skill scores are higher than graphcast’s beyond 5 days though.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

This euro run is colder with 850s than yesterday's 12z

Numerous places would set all-time record lows...just wild.

[SouthHillFrosty]

WE JUST LOST THE SEA DRAGONS. The XFL took away our team. They just canceled my season tickets

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

We should get a beer soon. I think there is some stuff that I can share with you that will give some insight.

oooh insider info, I'm intrigued

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

WE'RE BACK IN BUSINESS BABY! ITS COMING!

[Doinko]

These are high temps...

 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro drinkin the Henny this morning I see.

 

Believable with all that snow cover. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I would really love to experience a stretch of cold weather like what’s being advertised on the Euro one of these days. Seems like it’s bound to happen sooner or later. Really been since 1990, or maybe 1998 depending on what you’re looking at, since we’ve seen a top tier midwinter airmass like that down here.

Still, I remain cautiously optimistic. There have been some pretty Euro maps at an even closer range in the last few years alone, only to have airmass watered down last minute (at least for down here).

Snow is a different story. Always hard to nail down the details at this range but I would say the odds are becoming elevated that SOMEONE on the west side sees SOMETHING notable next week.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[iFred]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

oooh insider info, I'm intrigued

If things play out where we are pretty confident of this 1950 Redux, I think a meet up in SLU is in order. First round will be on me.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Craziness.   

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WE JUST LOST THE SEA DRAGONS. The XFL took away our team. They just canceled my season tickets

so it's definitely coming

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

If things play out where we are pretty confident of this 1950 Redux, I think a meet up in SLU is in order. First round will be on me.

Perfect, I can pick up more bananas for my stash. 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These patterns can be horrible for central sound with shadowing, might only see snow with the front. Way to early to know for sure but the cmc shows this as well.

I’m finally not the shadow candidate 

[Kolk1604]

lol

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

HOLY S$%* -21 IN BEND, 2 IN SALEM

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I would really love to experience a stretch of cold weather like what’s being advertised on the Euro one of these days. Seems like it’s bound to happen sooner or later. Really been since 1990, or maybe 1998 depending on what you’re looking at, since we’ve seen a top tier midwinter airmass like that down here.

Still, I remain cautiously optimistic. There have been some pretty Euro maps at an even closer range in the last few years alone, only to have airmass watered down last minute (at least for down here).

Snow is a different story. Always hard to nail down the details at this range but I would say the odds are becoming elevated that SOMEONE on the west side sees SOMETHING notable next week.

Yeah, odds are increasing for some good stuff is the big takeaway IMO. Ain’t no way we’re gonna have high temps 10-15 degrees though. Doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a good time though if it doesn’t verify to be this insane. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

High temps lol.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Siberia trough at that timeframe?

Two crucial players. Longitude of NPAC wavebreak/Kona low and downstream wave break associated with eastern us cyclone. Both influence TPV in W-Canada.

One thing for sure is the GFS will absolutely screw this thing up multiple times before the actual (possible) event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A client just messaged me and asked if I was available and I told them I would need about 15 mins...

[SeanNyberg]

A reminder to the folks lurking who might be new to all of this.

OF COURSE take all of the guidance with a grain of salt. I know you know that, we say it a million times.

But the one thing to really ignore are the snow totals at 3+ days. I mean, truly up until the event is happening. LOL. But the snow totals shown on ANY model beyond 3 days is just blindfolded dart throwing.

They might accurately suggest what general areas might do better than other general areas, but to nitpick between 4 inches and 7 inches for something that is a week away is pointless.

Just a little tip for folks watching this and wanting to learn more about PNW weather forecasting.