January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[catnip]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Getting pretty late for that now.

[SeanNyberg]

This morning we got the 12z GFS. It had Seattle, next Friday, at 38 degrees.

Tonight, 12 hours later, we get the 00z GFS. It has Seattle, next Friday (same time) at 16 degrees. It cut that sucker by more than 50%!

[snow_wizard]

I love how people are ignoring the GFS in favor of a bad GEM run. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't think GEM will be as good... block lifts away too fast.

 

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The good news is no other model has showed this on any run.

The OP run got too carried away with the ridge amplification. Not worried at all. It’s going to be an outlier.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

First time I’ve seen a solution like the GEM. Probably an outlier?

[Snownerd3000]

The ridge looks beefy on this run

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The outflow on this run would be strongest since 1990, maybe stronger. The Bellingham to Williams lake pressure gradient is around 34mb. Absurd and dangerous.  This would be a legitimate blizzard down through the sound with 70k winds gusts over 100. Insane.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

euro more likely to be more like gem than gfs, oof hoping not a trend

Not so sure you're right about this.

[BLI snowman]

Mother of all baroclinic zones on the GEM.

At least it's dynamic....

[Kolk1604]

I don't think we really lost it, could just be a bad run. 

The block didn't float away, it just moved further east and now it's just chillin'. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

euro more likely to be more like gem than gfs, oof hoping not a trend

So much for going to bed early.   If the GFS and GEM were in agreement tonight then I had no doubt the ECMWF would be the same.   Can't imagine it changing as much as the 00Z GEM just did.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We lost the GEM on this run... but the GFS is crazy snowy going into the cold.   Completely opposite of the 12Z runs.

Buried.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I love how people are ignoring the GFS in favor of a bad GEM run. 

Lmao no one is ignoring the gfs, I can guarantee you that

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

euro more likely to be more like gem than gfs, oof hoping not a trend

One more shit post from you, I’ll shut the place down and show up at your door with a blow dryer and a bag of salt.

[snow_wizard]

The thing about the GEM is it's a total outlier.  No other model has shown anything like that.  Many models have shown what the GFS is showing tonight.

[SnowySeeker50]

GFS holds and the GEM is out, atleast for now. Let's hope the euro does not follow the gem.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting that the GEM, while a huge step back, still has an awful lot of real cold air just across the border.  

[Requiem]

Hyperamplified GEM run-- hopefully the EURO doesn't show this solution but it's at least "nice" to see a different failmode than what we've been seeing on bad runs.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Mother of all baroclinic zones on the GEM.

At least it's dynamic....

Yeah... if this fails that way the result will be river flooding.  

[snow_wizard]

We have a lot of guests on here.  We need to behave ourselves!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Mother of all baroclinic zones on the GEM.

At least it's dynamic....

Imagine this storm being further south

 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

So much for going to bed early.   If the GFS and GEM were in agreement tonight then I had no doubt the ECMWF would be the same.   Can't imagine it changing as much as the 00Z GEM just did.  

Just thinking that maybe the initialization for the earlier warm GFS run may have trickled to the GEM.

 

In 2019 we lost all three for a full day, all because of the axis of the Gulf of Alaska ridge. I figure we are due for that as we move into a resolution change in the next couple days.

[catnip]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I love how people are ignoring the GFS in favor of a bad GEM run. 

The GFS has been all over the place. You can’t blame them for treading lightly?

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Just thinking about normal situations when cold/snow is not in play... I would never take a random GEM run that was totally different over a GFS run that has been trending in the same direction the last 4 runs.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, iFred said:

Just thinking that maybe the initialization for the earlier warm GFS run may have trickled to the GEM.

 

In 2019 we lost all three for a full day, all because of the axis of the Gulf of Alaska ridge. I figure we are due for that as we move into a resolution change in the next couple days.

I remember that... everything was lost in 2019 right before the event and then it all came back.    

[Kolk1604]

Everyone lets relax. I know there like a million posts and pages, but the Euro did this last night. It corrected itself the next run 

[Timmy]

This is gfs-level waffling

[snow_wizard]

Next Friday night.  Amazing that the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS have all had an epic cold run within the last couple of runs.

[iFred]

FWIW- all four local Seattle and Portland network affiliates have been on the forums in the past 6 hours. Someone at KOMO has multiple tabs open.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to care about this GFS run now. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

HOLY S*** ITS COMING AGAIN, WE'RE COMING AGAIN!

[TT-SEA]

That is a crazy strong Alaskan ridge on the GFS.   

[Cold Snap]

Since the GFS is looking good I think we will be fine especially if the Euro is looking great later.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS is great.

What an Arctic Trough!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Since the GFS is looking good I think we will be fine especially if the Euro is looking great later.

If the ECMWF is similar to its 12Z run then its very easy to disregard the GEM.   

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Wtf is that line of cold air on the gem, the rockies do a lot but not THAT much

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

This is gfs-level waffling

 

Those thicknesses are getting pretty real! 

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... if this fails that way the result will be river flooding.  

That would be a good way to decimate the snowpack falling over the next week. I was worried this we might actually be able to approach average snowpack, but if this happened we'd probably be still significantly below average at the end of it. Definitely of a crazy run. 850mb temps are -25C ocean off of BC which I can't imagine happens too frequently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just thinking about normal situations when cold/snow is not in play... I would never take a random GEM run that was totally different over a GFS run that has been trending in the same direction the last 4 runs.  

That’s actually true. If the GEM is on its own I really don’t care, I’ve seen it throw around some wild stuff in the 7-10 day range. 

[Requiem]

Pretty sure even the mighty February 2019 saw this level of waffling within 200-150 hours from models (including the EURO). We'll be fine for now.