January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

First concert, 16 years old, Van Halen touring on their first album, opening for Black Sabbath. Tenuous weather tie but awesome memory. 

I just thought it was funny.  @MR.SNOWMIZER wrote crazy town and my mind immediately needed to hear that song.  I saw the album title, Blizzard of Ozz, and my mind went places lol.  I wasn't even high at the time.  Anyways.  Its coming.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting that I don't hear the 500hPa temps mentioned.  Good tweet from Maue.  The 12Z Euro was Siberian air, true polar vortex

He said a polar vortex episode would start at -40C.  Here is a map showing -42 to -45C in Washington

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

gonna be happy!

[snow_wizard]

This run is going to rock!

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

He said a polar vortex episode would start at -40C.  Here is a map showing -42 to -45C in Washington

That -44 has to be a record for Seattle right?

[SeanNyberg]

The GFS, up through mid-week, is colder than the 12z. I am enjoying this so far. 

[High Desert Mat?]

00z put to hour 138 is just a step better than the 18z with the block a bit more sturdy and the trough a notch or two west. Good trends. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

7 days is a long time. I’d bet the general pattern is probably not going to deviate far at this point…but I think January 2020 collapsed like 48-72 hours out…atleast for people south of Everett. 

The NAO and PNA blocks tying together is kind of an insurance policy on this one.  Really nice on this GFS run.

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

7 days is a long time. I’d bet the general pattern is probably not going to deviate far at this point…but I think January 2020 collapsed like 48-72 hours out…atleast for people south of Everett. 

South of Bellingham under 500 feet Was the rule that day.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure yet... but GEM might be doing the block floating away thing.  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The GFS, up through mid-week, is colder than the 12z. I am enjoying this so far. 

This is going to crush us on this run.

[RentonHill]

[Ken in Wood Village]

It really looks like something is going to happen around the 11th and 12th 🌨

[FroYoBro]

Here it comes… 

[TT-SEA]

GFS is way farther west with the cold air on this run and about to drop down on us like a ton of bricks.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

7 days is a long time. I’d bet the general pattern is probably not going to deviate far at this point…but I think January 2020 collapsed like 48-72 hours out…atleast for people south of Everett. 

it's always been 120 hours for me, so tomorrow 12z run I think or around there

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah that'll work

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure yet... but GEM might be doing the block floating away thing.  

Yeah this run is toast. 

[TT-SEA]

Don't think GEM will be as good... block lifts away too fast.

[Timmy]

The gem took a dump somehow

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think this is going to work.

00z GFS has the Arctic Front at the BC/US border by Thursday morning. Great run so far!

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure yet... but GEM might be doing the block floating away thing.  

The good news is no other model has showed this on any run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure yet... but GEM might be doing the block floating away thing.  

Yuck

[Kolk1604]

Yeah GEM pulled a GFS... lame 

[snow_wizard]

The timing is moving up on this too.  Usually a good sign.

[SeanNyberg]

LETS GO GFFS 00Z!! Look at that Friday, 5 to 6 degrees colder than the "already cold" 18z ... yasss, this is what we like. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

GEM run awful. Hopefully the euro doesn’t follow as they say

[GHweatherChris]

EURO follows the GEM according to a couple individuals................. which begs the question, how can the EURO score better than the GEM..........

[TT-SEA]

We lost the GEM on this run... but the GFS is crazy snowy going into the cold.   Completely opposite of the 12Z runs.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

The gem took a dump somehow

I always go with the 2 out of 3 rule.  On any given run if 2 models out of the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are the same I go with that.  ECMWF will be the tie breaker.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah GEM pulled a GFS... lame 

Its been pretty solid.  It was its turn for a pullback.

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The gem took a dump somehow

Was bound to happen. CMC ensembles have been the worst of the big 3

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

EURO follows the GEM according to a couple individuals................. which begs the question, how can the EURO score better than the GEM..........

Its general guide when the GEM does something different than the GFS.   Not always true.   The GEM can also wander alone before figuring it out again.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We’ve lost the GEM

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NAO and PNA blocks tying together is kind of an insurance policy on this one.  Really nice on this GFS run.

Yeah I don’t really have any complaints yet overall the models have been about as good as they can be the last couple days. Not saying it will all fall apart I am just aware of how quickly things can turn for the worst this far out 

[snow_wizard]

GFS is great.

[Phishy Wx]

euro more likely to be more like gem than gfs, oof hoping not a trend

[SouthHillFrosty]

It’s over

[Perturbed Member]

Annoying to lose the GEM after it has been so consistent in showing favorable outcomes. It is just 1 run though. As long as the Euro is still onboard and the ensembles are decent, should still be ok. Couple of these pullbacks pretty much always happen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All eyes turn to the GEFS