January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

GEM is over. I am currently buying Canadian flags to burn would anyone want in on this investment opportunity 

Delivery 200 to sunriver, I'll burn 1 every hour until it gets super cold. Although because of all the heat produced by the fire it might cancel the cold and then yall would blame me.

[westcoastexpat]

GEM says 55 degrees or 10, no in-between 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Same general idea though... lifting block out more quickly and not letting cold air come south.    But probably influenced by the operational run and meaningless if ECMWF is the same.  

 

Just now, catnip said:

four more non-OP/Control members join the party at -10ish. then a similar number go nuclear warmth like OP/Control. Getting more divergent...total boom or bust!!

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I for one am completely fine with oscillating between thinking the GEM will lead the way and burning American made bottles of fake maple syrup that I've pasted a maple leaf sticker on the front of for Facebook likes 

Fifty-Four or Fight!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

The D**n site I use isn’t working - https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/#

How was the GFS 00z? 

I used to use that website but then I converted to pivotal, and now i settled to use both. Pivotal for posting runs, looking at ecmwf and gem, weather.cod.edu for the gfs.

[westcoastexpat]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same general idea though... lifting block out more quickly and not letting cold air come south.    But probably influenced by the operational run and meaningless if ECMWF is the same.  

Generally models scour out the cold air quicker than reality. We find that with true arctic air, it'll build a ridge much too quickly.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

GEM says 55 degrees or 10, no in-between 

Perfect example of why a mean can sometimed be worthless.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

A generation of kids will grow in the PNW thinking El Niños are needed for snow. We are f*cked.

[SpaceRace22]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow. I don't know which the GFS does more, love us, or hate Alaska?

I want every single house in Fairbanks to be having foundation issues by February because of the melting permafrost underneath. Anything less and I will be unsatisfied.

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, catnip said:

Still some good members in there.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

GEM says 55 degrees or 10, no in-between 

Pretty insane!

[MWG]

Holy cannoli finally made it to the last page.....maybe? I'm just glad tomorrow is Friday and I can read this forum more with a bottle of wine and popcorn!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A generation of kids will grow in the PNW thinking El Niños are needed for snow. We are f*cked.

[Christensen87]

Ugh I’m in Leavenworth and can’t check anything, so GEM step back and GFS caved to Euro? What’s happening lol 

[SpaceRace22]

On this run, every major city in the PNW falls below freezing on day 6 and does not go above it for the remainder of the run.

YVR @ 7am on 1/11

SEA @ 4pm on 1/11

PDX @ 10pm on 1/11

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, MWG said:

Holy cannoli finally made it to the last page.....maybe? I'm just glad tomorrow is Friday and I can read this forum more with a bottle of wine and popcorn!

By the time you read this, we'll be at page 155.

[RentonHill]

@Phil get in here and tell us the GEM is totally messing up something that its known for messing up

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

when was the last time the columbia river froze over

January 1930 at Portland-Vancouver. Before the damns but after airplanes.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A generation of kids will grow in the PNW thinking El Niños are needed for snow. We are f*cked.

All that's needed is a -QBO, a major SSW, and a PV split.  Something I did not know a few years ago.

[RayRay]

The city will lose its mind and have to call FEMA in if the 1950 redux happens…

[Ken in Wood Village]

I need to go to bed but what an incredible GFS run. I know things probably will change but hopefully we can see some of what shows. This is what it could look like from the 00Z GFS. Have fun with the Euro model 🌨

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You don't see this every day.

This needs to go on for three weeks minimum to make up for June 2021

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

January 1930 at Portland-Vancouver. Before the damns but after airplanes.

Never seen that pic before.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The moment of truth here with the EC rolling out shortly…model rubber match.

Watching Breaking Bad while these model runs roll out and the GFS is going full measure with that run.

[snow_wizard]

The control on the GEFS is ridiculous.

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

On this run, every major city in the PNW falls below freezing on day 6 and does not go above it for the remainder of the run.

YVR @ 7am on 1/11

SEA @ 4pm on 1/11

PDX @ 10pm on 1/11

Love this BTW. Fun to see the time line. 

[iFred]

If this plays out and by next week we still have something historic, I'll buy a round of drinks for anyone that attends the Seattle meet up.

[SnowWillarrive]

January 1950 in SE King County. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

January 1950 in SE King County. 

That is such a great pic.  

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I need to go to bed but what an incredible GFS run. I know things probably will change but hopefully we can see some of what shows. This is what it could look like from the 00Z GFS. Have fun with the Euro model 🌨

With snow cover you can drop the temps even further.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All that's needed is a -QBO, a major SSW, and a PV split.  Something I did not know a few years ago.

I've been told what we're seeing is minor.

[the_convergence_zone]

30 shades of purple and green 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

If this plays out and by next week we still have something historic, I'll buy a round of drinks for anyone that attends the Seattle meet up.

Seattle meet-up? Is this really planned?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

January 1950 in SE King County. 

Excellent quality pic for that era....and in color.

[iFred]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Seattle meet-up? Is this really planned?

As long as we don't get rug pulled. Aiming for Thursday.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

30 shades of purple and green 

Not one warm member.  Amazing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Andrew, will you be here to do a play by play of the Euro tonight? 

I’m not completely sure. But most likely I will show up at the most inopportune time.

[MWG]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

By the time you read this, we'll be at page 155.

Looks like just 151!!  I guess half the people are gone to bed lol. 

[Cloud]

What I learned today. You can select which page to go to. Things on here are at hyper-speed, so just remember what page you left off at and manually input in a page to go back to it to catch up on. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I've been told what we're seeing is minor.

That could be.  It split the PV so that's what counts I guess.