Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
I'm looking to be on the southern end of an MCS overnight which likely means a long night of severe weather and heavy rains. Memorial Day looks dry and beautiful here with a high near 80.
We have tickets for today’s Tiger game so we will be on a road trip to Detroit. Well the start of meteorological summer just around the corner it is a good time to talk a look at what the major models are hinting at for this summer. Most indications are that we will be going from an El Nino to a La Nina this summer and into the fall and next winter. So what does that mean for out summer season?
The shift from one phase to another starts below the ocean surface. With the aid of the trade winds and ocean currents, temperature anomalies at depth move from west to east, eventually coming to the surface over the eastern Pacific. The summer of 2024 will be in the middle of the transition period from one ENSO phase to another, maybe creating some unusual anomalies in the process. The general trend for this summer is for a warmer than average summer season and there is a possibly that there could be a good deal of thunderstorm activity as well. I will post a link to a site that has the top long range models and will let you go over them and see what each one has on tap for this summer. Rember this is only a trend and nothing is set is stone.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/summer-2024-final-forecast-atmospheric-shift-la-nina-united-states-canada-europe-fa/\
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/51 there was not rainfall before midnight. The highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the SE. There was 49% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1977 and the record low of 31 was set in 1992. The most rainfall of 1.27” fell in 1970. Last year the Y/L was 67/41.
The overnight low here in MBY and the current temperature is 62 I had 0.22” of rainfall while the airport has had at least 0.33” so far.
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