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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

Sunriver Snow Zone
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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Scrolling through the last 5 GEM runs for next weekend is comical.   Literally zero consistency.   Not one run was similar to the previous run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The Americans can thank us for gifting them with the 12Z GEM. 
 

I will be listening to Rush and watching Trailer Park Boys all weekend now in hopes that it overpowers the stupid American and European computer. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Sunriver Snow Zone Grand Master

Sunriver Snow Zone

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LETS F%&#$NG GO! GEM improvements! Ooohhh cannnaaada 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦!

image.thumb.png.5460aeb6518ccc4f5469982c59b31fa2.png

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

Posted
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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Massive improvements from the 🇨🇦! 
Here is the 00z last night to the 12 this morning for Saturday morning. GEM saw the EURO, UKMET, GraphCast and Spire and decided to join them!

IMG_2486.thumb.png.b194cc5d677f60d28ff9473838624777.png

IMG_2487.thumb.png.56c13a9610b929747c9729432214f1eb.png

Those are both from todays 12Z

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FrozenBites Collaborator

FrozenBites

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Scrolling through the last 5 GEM runs for next weekend is comical.   Literally zero consistency.   Not one run was similar to the previous run.

Definitely volatile regardless. May be some surprises, who knows.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Just now, clipper_range said:

Definitely volatile regardless. May be some surprises, who knows.

For sure... its impossible to say this event is cooked when the GEM looks this good.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
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1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

56 burgers in montana!

image.thumb.png.498b8a9e6f29f5aaeca5ce5398c34f27.png

Get Ready Kayla and everyone else in Montana! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Minion Enthusiast

Minion

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I love 🇺🇸 and will always support the GFS but when your model verification scores are close to the IMD (India)🇮🇳 then you got lots of problems.

😆 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
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Just now, TT-SEA said:

And even the terrible GFS shows overrunning snow next Saturday.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5190400.png

But probably falling at 30 degrees instead of -5 😞

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

But probably falling at 30 degrees instead of -5 😞

Too optimistic.   😀

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-5179600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol this run is bonkers. It's going to be cold throughout 

 

gem-all-namer-z500_dprog-5330800.png

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-5330800.png

Yeah... still going with massive high latitude blocking and a massive trapped vortex.     Just in a different position than previous runs.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mercurial Rising Star

Mercurial

Posted
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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Get Ready Kayla and everyone else in Montana! 

I just want snow and some single digit subzero temps.  Anything below -20 risks closing the ski lifts.  Snow >>>>> bitter cold

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

GEM must have gotten fed new data at the 12z update and now is seeing what the others are as well.

I just don't trust its tendency to go crazy with the blocking. 

The difference between the GFS and GEM a week out is about as big as it can get at that range.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

But is it that detail that’s causing the problem with the cold further down the line?

Certainly don’t help, but either way we’ve got 0 idea on what’s happening. Not a bust or lock yet! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Certainly don’t help, but either way we’ve got 0 idea on what’s happening. Not a bust or lock yet! 

Literally zero idea.   When the first two models of the day are this different at day 8... there is no way to know what will happen.

 

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-5276800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5276800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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RentonHill Grand Master

RentonHill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't trust its tendency to go crazy with the blocking. 

The difference between the GFS and GEM a week out is about as big as it can get at that range.  

 

Interesting the GFS it gets to pretty decent blocking eventually…But it just completely sharts on keeping any cold air anywhere which seems…suspect.

IMG_6735.png

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I will be listening to Rush and watching Trailer Park Boys all weekend now in hopes that it overpowers the stupid American and European computer. 

Everyone on this board has to start spelling in Canadian English this morning to encourage the GEM.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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