Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
IO convection has trended stronger (and WPAC weaker) as it’s gotten closer in time. Which suggests the low frequency signal (base state) is transitioning into the E-Hem.
Though there is still an increasing WPAC component to tropical forcing over the next few weeks thanks to the MJO, so I don’t think it will fail altogether. It just doesn’t have the steroidal wave-1 signature it did before.
The MJO will propagate back to the E-Hem in June, which will constructively interfere with the developing base state, augmenting trades over the dateline/IPWP and likely forcing heavy -PNA/western trough response (a wetter/more zonal pattern compared to the current blocky/meridional one).
But the result of that is a large ridge downstream over the CONUS, which will probably expand to cover most of the lower-48 by in July. Once it gets cranking it could be difficult to contain.
Seems like this May could end up a bit wetter than the last couple out here in the Charleston CWA. Living up to its reputation for a top rainfall month on average. In 2022, July/Aug and February were my wet ones, and I remember Jan 2023 having more than 5" of rainfall. Many of last year's months ended below average on precip.
The warmest parts of the year are coming up. Looking like no more sub-50 degree lows happen until September. During the next period of warmth I even see an upper 60's low Tue night before more storms roll in.
61 right now and thick fog.
tomorrow are you going to post an MSN article about how Biden is causing prices to go up and that it is all his fault?
I'm sounding like a broken record with you, but....what point are you trying to make here? That China = bad?
Unfortunately, free market economics is more complicated than that.
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