January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Everyone on this board has to start spelling in Canadian English this morning to encourage the GEM.

I favour this suggestion!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Weren't last nights GEM ensembles quite a bit colder than the operational?

[Mid Valley Duck]

We have lost the UKMET

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weren't last nights GEM ensembles quite a bit colder than the operational?

Depends on where you are talking about.   Here is the 00Z GEM vs its 00Z GEM ensemble.  

[FrozenBites]

I feel the GFS is being suspect. There's definitely time for things to improve or get worse, however the GFS is out to lunch. Maybe it's diet coke was spiked?

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, The Winter Warlock said:

COVID seems to be rebounding. Infected on the 16th of December, finally tested negative on 12/31 and was feeling better. Now a cough and a mild fever a week later. Ugh.

So many people are experiencing what I did last season…I would just finish up with one and the next illness would take its place. My order of festivities was RSV, followed by COVID, followed by the Flu. I was non stop sick from the beginning of November to just before Christmas 2022. It was truly horrible. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Up to 4½ inches so far, which is more than any forecast showed me getting. I wonder why they show central oregon too dry usually, is it perhaps caused by the almost 0 radar coverage?

 

 

#giveusaradar

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I favour this suggestion!

Highest honours to you. Grab the toque and do a snow dance, even if you're in a parkade at the outlets. If not we'll be sore-ry with torching. 

[MossMan]

So we are slowly and painfully whittling down the positives models. Do we only have the GEM and the SPHERE (or whatever it is) left in our favor? 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't trust its tendency to go crazy with the blocking. 

The difference between the GFS and GEM a week out is about as big as it can get at that range.  

 

498 thickness line down to Vancouver BC on the GEM.  Unlikely to be that extreme. Gem does occasionally go nuts with amplification in the long range

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS just resets the entire pattern after day 10 for another shot at this.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

So we are slowly and painfully whittling down the positives models. Do we only have the GEM and the SPHERE (or whatever it is) left in our favor? 

The euro is still half on half off, both with the op and it’s ensembles

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Everyone on this board has to start spelling in Canadian English this morning to encourage the GEM.

I second this ey, maple syrup ey hockey ey!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

The euro is still half on half off, both with the op and it’s ensembles

Yes... we still have the ECMWF on board and that is huge.    The 00Z run was pretty cold and snowy for most of the region.  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... we still have the ECMWF on board and that is huge.    The 00Z run was pretty cold and snowy for most of the region.  

Seems to be easily forgotten at the moment lol…but if it takes a step back we’re in big trouble 

[TT-SEA]

I think the 12Z GEM is on board.   Just a tiny bit.

[MossMan]

The GFS needs to hug it out with the GEM and concede that Canada is simply better at forecasting. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

GFS operational is significantly warmer than the ensemble mean.

A watered-down, lesser outflow event is probably still coming. Bet the 12Z Euro confirms the latter.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS just resets the entire pattern after day 10 for another shot at this.  

I noticed on the 6Z ensemble that the GEFS was going with a pretty major block reset in the long range

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The GFS needs to hug it out with the GEM and concede that Canada is simply better at forecasting. 

Statistically, the GEM does have a higher verification score than the GFS but the Euro is still the best.

[Phishy Wx]

FWIW, someone yesterday in the mayhem posted model verification recently and I believe it went:

1. Euro

2. ukmet

3. gem

4. gfs

 

GFS is trash, so keep that in mind

 

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

FWIW, someone yesterday in the mayhem posted model verification recently and I believe it went:

1. Euro

2. ukmet

3. gem

4. gfs

 

GFS is trash, so keep that in mind

 

Unless it shows record snow and cold. Then it’s the gold standard

[Andstorm]

Isn’t it still a little too early to be paying attention to operational runs? I think ensembles are a much better indication. Operational is going to bounce around a bunch I bet over next few days. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

GFS operational is significantly warmer than the ensemble mean.

A watered-down, lesser outflow event is probably still coming. Bet the 12Z Euro confirms the latter.

What hour is the cutoff for ensembles and switching to the OP runs? Like 72-96 hours?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

GFS operational is significantly warmer than the ensemble mean.

A watered-down, lesser outflow event is probably still coming. Bet the 12Z Euro confirms the latter.

We do have pretty good agreement between the GEFS and EPS.   Probably what is going to happen.   These operational runs are so chaotic and inconsistent.

[Andstorm]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

What hour is the cutoff for ensembles and switching to the OP runs? Like 72-96 hours?

I think Phil said operational are worthless outside 7 days. He’s clearly an expert but I thought it was more like 3 days at most. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Andstorm said:

Isn’t it still a little too early to be paying attention to operational runs? I think ensembles are a much better indication. Operational is going to bounce around a bunch I bet over next few days. 

248 pages of ensemble chatter would be pretty boring. 
 

Down to 33 here. 

[Snownerd3000]

 

What did I miss? 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

What hour is the cutoff for ensembles and switching to the OP runs? Like 72-96 hours?

Don’t think there is a defined cutoff. Probably in that 3-5 day range. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

What did I miss? 

It’s not coming.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We do have pretty good agreement between the GEFS and EPS.   Probably what is going to happen.   These operational runs are so chaotic and inconsistent.

Those both compared look pretty solid despite the models refining and watering things down a bit from some of the insane runs. 

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm jumping off the train. Going back to normal life. We should get a good blast next year.

[Randyc321]

Is Fred going nostalgic?  Black Hole.  Haven't seen that name in a while. Like since the days of the Atmospheric Wraith.

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I'm jumping off the train. Going back to normal life. We should get a good blast next year.

Bye 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I'm jumping off the train. Going back to normal life. We should get a good blast next year.

Only if you give one last reaction. It's your trademark after all I'm kidding.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Models are all over the place in handling the EPO. I’m not sure what’s driving this but it has huge implications for us. Here’s last nights EPS and then the GFS op this morning 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Those both compared look pretty solid despite the models refining and watering things down a bit from some of the insane runs. 

Yeah... I bet it will end up not nearly as cold as the GEM but way better than the GFS.  

But I would hate to be a professional forecaster.   The range of possibilities is still ridiculously high for being 5 days out.  

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Bye 

lol he will be back by the end of the day probably…or when the euro comes out shortly. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GEFS cold camp actually had significant growth. Only 4 members hit -10c last night. That’s back up to 10. 
 

[Doinko]

How does the 12z GEPS look?