Jump to content

1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

Minny_Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

ATW Enthusiast

ATW

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, KTPmidMO said:

I saw a report that the Us Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be flying inside the storm today taking samples. If thats the case, that means we will have "true" data which will be loaded into the weather models. By 00z tonight the data suite is likely to be much more accurate than all previous guidance runs.

Screenshot_20240105_131108_Facebook.jpg

Good luck! You’re not too far south of me. I’m hoping we get a big storm after the cold air settles in. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Tom
Tom

Hello from Pinetop, AZ!  We took a last minute Father and son trip up to the mountains this morning.  This has been one hellova storm up here and it continues for the remainder of the day.  I’ll post

gabel23
gabel23

It’s absolutely ripping out there wow!! Started at 830 and picked up 3” in those two hours.  IMG_3055.mov

gabel23
gabel23

Picked up 5” in three hours so far! 

Posted Images

Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ATW said:

I’m starting to get a little more excited. Columbia is in a good spot even according to the European model. Just don’t want to see any big shifts. Suppose to get pretty cold Tuesday night so what sticks will be set. Good luck to you to Clinton. You’re not too far from me. 

Good luck to you also.  Our part of the country seems to get more last minute model shifts than others, so our wild ride isn't over yet.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Here comes the watches!  

WHAT...Blizzard possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 or more
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 to 60 mph creating whiteout
  or near whiteout conditions.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through early Tuesday Morning.

  

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Republic, Washington and Cloud Counties.
  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
  • bongocat-test 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ATW Enthusiast

ATW

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good luck to you also.  Our part of the country seems to get more last minute model shifts than others, so our wild ride isn't over yet.  

I can’t complain. I’ve done well many times. We really need to score at least once with this pattern during the month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

Posted
Posted

NWS Topeka has initially issued a three county watch for this system for up to 6" of snow towards north central KS including Concordia. Not sure what their thinking is yet or if a wider area is coming later.

(Edit: I see @gabel23 mentioned this in his post above.)

Screenshot 2024-01-05 at 14-59-32 Topeka KS.png

  • Like 2

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Dynamic cooling!

Yeah that's a factor as well.  There is quite a bit of dry air that will have to erode though before precip onset.  Here's a forecast sounding from western Indiana that shows the dry wedge aloft (large gap between the green and red lines for anyone who doesn't know how to read these things)

2024010518_NAM_081_39.98-87.24_severe_ml.thumb.png.e130e3ef25aadcd2904adc4c71404e81.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jayhawker85 Experienced

Jayhawker85

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

NWS Topeka has initially issued a three county watch for this system for up to 6" of snow towards north central KS including Concordia. Not sure what their thinking is yet or if a wider area is coming later.

(Edit: I see @gabel23 mentioned this in his post above.)

Screenshot 2024-01-05 at 14-59-32 Topeka KS.png

Come on and scoot that box one more county east!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Here comes the watches!  

WHAT...Blizzard possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 or more
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 to 60 mph creating whiteout
  or near whiteout conditions.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through early Tuesday Morning.

  

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Republic, Washington and Cloud Counties.

15z SREF to 87 hours, 10:1 ratio. image.thumb.png.6eb0fb0aa87a0edc0a8fcb93e94043b2.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

Reading all these in-depth AFDs and watches makes me wonder what's going on at NWS FSD. Their afternoon AFD today mentions an increasing chance of accumulations but only tops out at around 3 inches for areas south of me near the Missouri River. My zone forecast calls for "light accumulations" on Monday. They seem to be reacting awfully slow to some of these models that are showing 6+ inches. I'd imagine their tune will change a bit if the stronger solutions continue over the weekend. If they don't and the heavier accumulations verify, they are going to have some big egg on their face come Tuesday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted
Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Reading all these in-depth AFDs and watches makes me wonder what's going on at NWS FSD. Their afternoon AFD today mentions an increasing chance of accumulations but only tops out at around 3 inches. My zone forecast calls for "light accumulations" on Monday. They seem to be reacting awfully slow to some of these models that are showing 6+ inches. I'd imagine their tune will change a bit if the stronger solutions continue over the weekend. If they don't and the heavier accumulations verify, they are going to have some big egg on their face come Tuesday.

That 15z SREF and NAM caught my attention for sure. We’ll see what the weekend models do. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Omaha issuing Winter Storm Watches.  I'm a little surprised they are issued this early and with amounts listed given the great degree of uncertainty, although near Omaha the uncertainty is considerably less than areas further east.

  

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  7 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Iowa and east
  central, northeast, and southeast Nebraska.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted
Just now, bud2380 said:

I really hope this is one of those storms where the Euro is more right and the GFS is wrong.  

If it makes you feel any better, as of the update for the 00z runs tonight, the Euro continues to perform better than the GFS.

image.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

If it makes you feel any better, as of the update for the 00z runs tonight, the Euro continues to perform better than the GFS.

image.png

 

As I was saying, I sure hope the GFS is dead on through the extended... :D I live near that blue dot in the area I circled.  

 

image.thumb.png.69e9401a5cb855725f53588803991c79.png

  • lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

Posted
Posted

Wow...Topeka NWS is not the least bit impressed with this system. I'm guessing they're thinking warm thermals but who knows. Here is their initial snow forecast map...

Screenshot2024-01-05at16-33-54WeatherBriefing-FriJan5315PM-DssPacket_pdf.png.04dbfd5a256fdb4521b3d33fa6ee687f.png

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jayhawker85 Experienced

Jayhawker85

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Wow...Topeka NWS is not the least bit impressed with this system. I'm guessing they're thinking warm thermals but who knows. Here is their initial snow forecast map...

Screenshot2024-01-05at16-33-54WeatherBriefing-FriJan5315PM-DssPacket_pdf.png.04dbfd5a256fdb4521b3d33fa6ee687f.png

That’s not what i was expecting considering what the models are showing today…

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

974 mb on an ensemble mean at 5 days out is fairly impressive.

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.thumb.png.5b2db85cbdcd0db841fb894a9d50fa27.png

No doubt. Normally (especially this season) I'd be stoked about that 998 SLP coming my way, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Pros3lyte said:

Man. SE MI is heartbreak hotel as usual!

Yep. Why I had to get out of there. And unlike Hotel California, I actually left. I think we've been sub-freezing up here for at least the past 3 days if not longer. 

Latest from the WPC hazards folks. A few winners and losers in the last 24 hrs

2024-01-05d3-7hazards.thumb.png.82ef7161a31077c8bdbfe7cc5c6e66c5.png

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Up_north_MI Enthusiast

Up_north_MI

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. Why I had to get out of there. And unlike Hotel California, I actually left. I think we've been sub-freezing up here for at least the past 3 days if not longer. 

Latest from the WPC hazards folks. A few winners and losers in the last 24 hrs

2024-01-05d3-7hazards.thumb.png.82ef7161a31077c8bdbfe7cc5c6e66c5.png

You’re new area looks to be in a pretty good spot for some decent system snow the next week or so. 

  • bongocat-test 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Two different departments of the same WPC agency no doubt, but this map sure doesn't add up to "HIGH WINDS" in places outlined on the hazards map including here. I don't see SMI being windier than NMI if the MSLP flashed by the EPS happens.

image.png.d46424cd225c751a08b99c9d2c2e8d1f.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...