1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

09z RAP to 51 hours 

[Grizzcoat]

FWIW-

AccWX model-

[CentralNebWeather]

06 HRRR only through 48 hours 

[clintbeed1993]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

06 HRRR only through 48 hours 

As beautiful as that looks, the HRRR and RAP models are basically useless outside 12 hours from the event 

[CentralNebWeather]

03z SEEF 10:1 ratio 

[CentralNebWeather]

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco 

Models have had a western shift with the primary deformation snow band, which could be nearly stationary for a time on Monday and combine with other factors to produce brief bouts of heavy snow rates. - Slight uptick in wind gust potential Monday night. Still think most areas will gust in the 30-40 MPH range, but especially W/SW of the Tri-Cities could gust up to 45 MPH.

Nrly gusts 35-45 MPH) from W to E, as early as mid-late aftn W of Hwy 283, then elsewhere Mon evening. This will coincide with falling temperatures and increasingly "dry" nature to snow. This will really ramp up the blowing and drifting factor and possibly lead to near- blizzard conditions, especially in open areas, Mon night. Travel on W-E roads, including I-80, could be particularly difficult. Falling snow will end by dawn Tue AM, but winds will be slow to decr...so difficult travel will likely persist into/through the Tue AM commute.

[CentralNebWeather]

06z Euro 

[hawkstwelve]

Practically every model shows me getting at least 10 inches yet my winter storm watch got updated and still sits at 3-7. NWS FSD seems highly reluctant to embrace the heavier totals for up here, mentioning in their AFD that they're worried the initial band tonight will only drop 2-3 inches, even though precisely 0 models show this. 

A little baffling to be honest. If all these models are right and NWS keeps beating the same drum, they're going to end up wildly inaccurate tomorrow. Won't matter to me as I'll be enjoying 10+ inches hopefully but many other folks are going to be quite surprised if that's how it turns out. 

[Grizzcoat]

SREF coming in juiced-

[ATW]

2 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I don't think the models are able to pick up on the warm thermals down in northern MO. NWS is saying it will stay a mix for most of the event now and only have a few inches of accumulation forecasted, while models and especially the ensembles are extremely bullish with two to three times that. Does anyone know if models typically can't account for the mix and show it as all snow when it won't be?

Thermals are terrible for Missouri. 

[CentralNebWeather]

06z EPS 

[ATW]

On 1/5/2024 at 10:42 PM, Clinton said:

If the models hold we may see a Winter Storm Watch issued tomorrow for this storm.  I have yet to have one this season.

Keeps trending north.. Onto the next!

[Madtown]

49 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

SREF coming in juiced-

give me 4 up this way and I'll be ecstatic!

[Bryan1117]

Really liking the trends here for East-Central Nebraska. Still looks to be the usual questions with thermals, convection to the south that could eat into the totals, etc… however dry air doesn’t look to be one of them.

Would be nice to score a big one here as it’s been almost 3 years now… either way I am excited to watch this play out and see what this pattern will deliver, LET’S FREAKING GO!

[Clinton]

EAX forecast

[Black Hole]

With the storm track so far north and snow completely out of the question, here are some comments on the storm/wind threat tomorrow. It looks like we will get just unstable enough for some meager MUCAPE to develop. This may result in a line of thunderstorms that punches through mid to late morning. Winds are absolutely howling aloft, 70-80 kts at 850 hPa, which will result in a widespread 40-50 mph swath. The lower levels are stable or it might be higher. However, if some of the strong winds mix down during thunderstorms we could locally gust to 60 mph. 

The wraparound will stay north of the area but we will still get some chilly temps and gusty winds into Tuesday. 

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Pros3lyte said:

At this point I’m hoping my area can even manage to get the ground covered before it turns into a wash out- eastern lower Michigan might just be the armpit of the Midwest.

i don’t know why we always end up struggling to get the big synoptic snows compared to central lower- it seems like more often than not that freezing line drifts over the eastern portion of the state but areas west of I-75 tend to do so much better

Totally get it. I am a SEMI native and WMI always did better with these S Stream large synoptic storms. It is partly the track, and while not as dramatic a situation as Chicago has right on Lake Michigan, SEMI has Erie, St. Clair, and Huron all sitting to it's E/SE/NE mitigating any colder air during the usual easterly wind fetch in a large snowstorm. SEMI, especially bottom corner, does best in an overwhelmingly cold winter pattern but almost always gets screwed in these warmer/marginal cold winters.

[jaster220]

I liked this part of APX's notes on this storm

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Tuesday system: We are continuing to monitor a potent system
expected to track into the region for Tuesday. Guidance seems to be
holding onto a cooler solution and is pulling colder air in with
deep moisture from the Gulf. This increases the probability of
widespread snow occurring across the region for this system.
However, depending on the track, easterly winds could kick in and
give way to the possibility of rain mixing in. One thing worth
noting is that guidance has trended to a more northwest track,
making the eastern portion of the mitt more susceptible to rain
mixing in with the aforementioned easterly winds. Exact
accumulations are still very much uncertain at this time, but it
should be mentioned that there is a potential for 4 to 8 inches of
snowfall through Tuesday evening across the region. With gusty winds
accompanying this system, this poses the threat of blowing snow
occurring even though the snow is expected to be very wet and dense
in nature (which is perfect for building a snowman!). Nonetheless,
the development of hazardous travel will certainly be possible. This
storm will hold it`s grip on the region through Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, but the evolution and track of this system
is still uncertain so this is subject to change.

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Really liking the trends here for East-Central Nebraska. Still looks to be the usual questions with thermals, convection to the south that could eat into the totals, etc… however dry air doesn’t look to be one of them.

Would be nice to score a big one here as it’s been almost 3 years now… either way I am excited to watch this play out and see what this pattern will deliver, LET’S FREAKING GO!

You are due good luck.  Not much longer and it will be started.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX forecast at there still some snow lol.

Last bullet point translation "moving onto the next one then" 

Sorry for the last-minute rug pull. Had a few the past 3 winters living in metro Detroit.  

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I liked this part of APX's notes on this storm

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Tuesday system: We are continuing to monitor a potent system
expected to track into the region for Tuesday. Guidance seems to be
holding onto a cooler solution and is pulling colder air in with
deep moisture from the Gulf. This increases the probability of
widespread snow occurring across the region for this system.
However, depending on the track, easterly winds could kick in and
give way to the possibility of rain mixing in. One thing worth
noting is that guidance has trended to a more northwest track,
making the eastern portion of the mitt more susceptible to rain
mixing in with the aforementioned easterly winds. Exact
accumulations are still very much uncertain at this time, but it
should be mentioned that there is a potential for 4 to 8 inches of
snowfall through Tuesday evening across the region. With gusty winds
accompanying this system, this poses the threat of blowing snow
occurring even though the snow is expected to be very wet and dense
in nature (which is perfect for building a snowman!). Nonetheless,
the development of hazardous travel will certainly be possible. This
storm will hold it`s grip on the region through Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, but the evolution and track of this system
is still uncertain so this is subject to change.

I expect you to build one of those and we want pictures!

[jaster220]

Just now, Clinton said:

I expect you to build one of those and we want pictures!

LOL, I just remembered I have no snow shovel here. I have an extra day to shop for that tho

[gimmesnow]

4 days out and Cascade Mountain is in the crosshairs. Could be a highlight day for a season Wednesday if this keeps going the way it's going.

[Hawkeye]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I'm pretty skeptical of the higher end of this range.  I'm thinking more like 6-7".

[hawkstwelve]

3km NAM went from 7.1 inches for up here on the 06z to 11.4 on the 12z.

 

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

The 12z NAM drops totals across my area by 2-3", but it's probably noise.  The 3k NAM is higher.

 

[Pjjanthony]

7 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

The NAM has been pretty consistent with this over Omaha for 2 days. I think it is on to something like a frontogenesis band setting up on top of or around Omaha. It will be interesting to see if it’s right. Other models have started joining in.

[Grizzcoat]

3k nam

[hawkstwelve]

One of the WRFs also increasing totals quite a bit. This is the latest frame I could find a comparison for but totals continue to rise after this all the way up to 18 inches. 

Obviously that's probably overkill but this continues a trend of upping totals for here this morning. 

[jaster220]

While the GEM tracks the SLP furthest south, it ends up similar with a mid-970s Low in Huron like the Euro. I'm hoping that the Euro scores the coup over the N trended models. It's 0z snowfall map was just about ideal for my new backyard.

[Grizzcoat]

Hrw Fv3

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

3k nam

Looks a LOT like the Euro for my region. 

[KTPmidMO]

Rug pulled out from under me right before the storm, gotta love it. Congrats to everyone up north that's gonna get hit, once again.

[jaster220]

Bliz Warnings showing up now in Eastern CO and NE NM.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
415 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

NMZ227-228-230-071830-
/O.UPG.KABQ.WS.A.0003.240108T0900Z-240109T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.BZ.W.0001.240108T0900Z-240109T1200Z/
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast
Highlands-Union County-
415 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2
  to 5 inches for most, with 6 to 12 inches across Raton Pass and
  Capulin. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Winds gusting
  as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Far Northeast Highlands, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas
  Including Raton Pass, and Union County.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Some roads
  will likely be closed. Significant travel delays are possible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility and
  cause whiteout conditions. Very strong winds could cause extensive
  damage to trees and power lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snowfall and strongest winds are
  expected during the day Monday. Areas of blowing snow are still
  possible Monday night after the snowfall ends.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle. For the latest road conditions, dial 511 or
1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com.

&&

$$

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
410 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

COZ074-071915-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0002.240108T0600Z-240109T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.BZ.W.0001.240108T0900Z-240109T1200Z/
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
410 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 14 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible. Winds
  gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and
  11000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the morning or evening commute. Strong winds could cause
  tree damage. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[Chambana]

Brutal NW trend, quietly has become an IA storm, congrats to those folks. Don’t sweat it guys, many more chances coming up, including a potential consolation prize late next week.
 

pattern setting up almost reminds me of poor man’s January 2014.

[jaster220]

GRR likes (loves?) me! 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2024

- Risk for impacts continues late Monday night into Wednesday morning

A burst of warm air advection associated with the arrival of the low
level jet arrives later Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Stronger
deep upward vertical motion is seen in the models so this event will
likely start off with a period of accumulating snow.  The Tuesday
morning commute could be treacherous as several inches of snow may
fall then. Warmer air up at around 850 mb is still seen to lift
northward through the southern half of the CWA Tuesday afternoon
which should transition the precipitation over to a mix of rain/snow
or just plain rain.  Further north that above freezing layer may not
reach our northern zones so it should remain mainly snow up there.
We could see a lull in the heavier/steady precipitation for part of
Tuesday afternoon as a mid level dry slot lifts in.  However during
the evening and into the night the deepening closed low pulls east
of the region. Its associated deformation zone pulls in from the
west and that will support an increase in the precipitation once
again. All areas will change back to snow and that could support
impacts expanding once again into the Wednesday morning commute.
Winds will also be on the increase and gusts are likely to top 25
mph.   Northern zones will end up with the most snow and impacts
with an increased potential for more than 6 inches there.

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON... This run shows a weaker defo zone across eastern Iowa, so the totals have dropped by a couple inches.