CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 School closings are just beginning to get posted. Lots of anxious teachers and students across the state. Maybe not as many parents with the same anticipation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Either AccuWeather knows something everyone else doesn't, or they are laughably bad at this whole thing called 'forecasting'. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Winter storm watch upgraded to a warning, calling for 6-10 inches. The zone forecast for my county is showing a total of 8-12. Here's an excerpt from the afternoon AFD. Sounds like I might be in the sweet spot as far as SE SD goes for both parts of this storm. From 9pm to 12am, deterministic guidance is in good agreement in a west to east oriented band of snow lifting north into near the U.S. Hwy 20 corridor. Strong 850-750mb frontogenetical forcing for ascent and moderate mid level lapse rates in the vicinity of the band will continue a slow northward progression overnight. This initial heavy band of snow will bring a swath of 3 to 6 inches of snow before sunrise Monday morning. At this point, that heaviest band looks to set the heaviest snow somewhere near Wagner-Yankton northeastward toward Mitchell-Sioux Falls and Pipestone. MONDAY: There will certainly be impacts to the Monday morning commute given the expected overnight snow totals. 12z HREF model guidance supports pockets of very heavy 1+ inch/hour rates of snowfall in the corridor from Mitchell to Sioux Falls to Worthington and northward toward Madison, Pipestone, and Marshall from 4 AM to 8 AM. These rates suggest snow removal may be difficult to keep up with during the morning commute. Further southeast, snow amounts may be lesser to start with even a break possible in the early morning hours. Periods of lighter to moderate snow will continue to be widespread across the region (though with lesser snowfall rates) through the day Monday and Monday night. Forcing becomes broader and more synoptically driven as the corresponding sfc low ejects into the Oklahoma Panhandle, more PVA driven in the vicinity of the inverted sfc trough and approaching mid level wave/trough. As this system pivots eastward, northwest Iowa receives the bulk of its snowfall Monday afternoon and evening with periods of weak instability leading to locally very heavy rates of 1+ inches/hour as well. 12z and early 18z model guidance continue to trend higher with snowfall amounts, even giving low (<20%) chances of isolated 12+ inches of snow totals for counties from Yankton/Bon Homme to Minnehaha to Lyon MN. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: East winds on Monday will shift north in the afternoon and evening as the sfc trough meanders eastward. North gradient winds will strengthen heading into the evening. Tough to say whether the encroaching low level jet will allow gusts to persist overnight (which would further degrade travel conditions), but even occasional 25 to 35 mph gusts are possible. Even occasional gusts would cause at least drifting snow and patchy blowing snow (if not more widespread) west of the James River Valley, reducing visibility. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Either AccuWeather knows something everyone else doesn't, or they are laughably bad at this whole thing called 'forecasting'. Same here. Accuweather brought me down to 4-8, Watch is still for 6-11, Wunderground calling for about 8 in Portage. Guess we'll see, but you will see before I do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 21z RAP. Whoa. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 21z RAP. Whoa. Move that band slightly east in northern Nebraska to Fremont 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Here’s some footage up the Mogollan Rim… 6382F9B1-CDA3-49C2-A56E-49692F62B63F.mp4 3667D549-A653-4460-B28B-E49907AB9EF7.mp4 filtered-18C1BD3D-F362-4F17-B15E-EF7BA435649F.mp4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Another change 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Many many schools closed officially for tomorrow 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Many many schools closed officially for tomorrow The way things look and are playing out; schools will probably be closed for two days and possibly late starts Wednesday. OAX mentioned how the winds really are the worst into tuesday afternoon. Wind and possible near-blizzard conditions: Initially, east/southeast winds 10-20 mph are expected while the wet/heavy snow falls. As the snow tapers off from west to east late Monday night, winds will begin to turn around to the northwest and increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph at times, especially along and west of Highway 77. The winds will be most intense from 3am Tuesday - noon Tuesday for the entire area. Expect significant blowing and drifting of snow as the falling snow has already tapered of from west to east. Near-blizzard like conditions are possible for portions of the area Tuesday morning. Winds begin to subside from west to east Tuesday afternoon. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, gabel23 said: The way things look and are playing out; schools will probably be closed for two days and possibly late starts Wednesday. OAX mentioned how the winds really are the worst into tuesday afternoon. Wind and possible near-blizzard conditions: Initially, east/southeast winds 10-20 mph are expected while the wet/heavy snow falls. As the snow tapers off from west to east late Monday night, winds will begin to turn around to the northwest and increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph at times, especially along and west of Highway 77. The winds will be most intense from 3am Tuesday - noon Tuesday for the entire area. Expect significant blowing and drifting of snow as the falling snow has already tapered of from west to east. Near-blizzard like conditions are possible for portions of the area Tuesday morning. Winds begin to subside from west to east Tuesday afternoon. Yep. Just got the notification, no school here tomorrow. Did you hear our household screaming all the way to your house? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Just now, CentralNebWeather said: Yep. Just got the notification, no school here tomorrow. Just you hear our household screaming all the way to your house? My girls are at dance; they heard it in Columbus! We haven't gotten the call yet but I'm thinking its coming! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, gabel23 said: My girls are at dance; they heard it in Columbus! We haven't gotten the call yet but I'm thinking its coming! There will be very few schools open in the state tomorrow, and possibly Tuesday imo. I know that the times we get multiple days off in a row, it is the county that lets our superintendent know. With the winds being forecasted, it usually leads to an extra day of cleanup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 21s SREF 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 21s SREF WOW. Nice bullseye right over my county. I'm thinking we gonna be in for more surprises moving forward! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18z Euro has 1.1” qpf in Iowa City. Highest total in the state. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 We’re looking at a High of 61 tomorrow with rain chances rising overnight and temps in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s. Great winter weather for the Texas Flu…which my husband has. I’m trying to stay healthy. Getting too old for this. Need to win the Lottery and spend winter in So Florida. 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 I'm gonna make a prediction and say this blizzard warning gets expanded to the north east tomorrow. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, gabel23 said: I'm gonna make a prediction and say this blizzard warning gets expanded to the north east tomorrow. LOT must be out of the office today. My forecast is calling for 4-8” but we have no advisory yet. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18z EPS 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z EPS Lock this in please, approaching double digits in Omaha and Lincoln. If the precip stays all snow here, I could definitely see this happening. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 00z HRRR appears to be trying to tick north a tad; pushing heavier forecasted snows into Omaha it would seem 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Euro is no longer King. That model has been terrible. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Euro is no longer King. That model has been terrible. How so? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18z EPS says WPC shoulda stuck to their original d7 forecast, lol 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: My area would be buried if we got this with forecasted 50 mph winds. My goodness. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Missouri is UGLY on HRRR. Makes me want to cry a little bit.. 2 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Dang, 15 inches for Sioux Falls on that new HRRRRR run. Still think that is on the extreme high end of possibilities but maybe there will be some surprises. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 That's interesting how the HRRR has shifted the heaviest snow band northwest of Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 You can tell a storm is coming. Gusty east/southeast winds bringing in moisture. I don’t think there is anything going to be open around here tomorrow. Every school district is closed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18z EURO has me in the bullseye, but has consistently put my location on the border mix rain/snow line due to it's proximity to the relatively warm (lower 40s) lake! However the 18z run has moved the mix line more east, closer to the lake. I live approximately 8 miles west of Lake Michigan. Maybe I shouldn't be too concerned about this since my NWS forecast calls for 6-10 inches! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 44 minutes ago, jaster220 said: How so? It’s still giving me 7”. We aren’t going to see more than 2”. It’s been bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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