Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 With the UKMET looking like that, I'd be a little surprised if the Euro comes in looking like the GFS. No guarantees though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 This is 0z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Here's the UKMET at 84 hrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here's the UKMET at 84 hrs. At 84 hrs, the GFS has the surface low over Cincinnati. Who will be right? Compromise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Ratios should be better than 10:1 with this one too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Could we have a classic euro/Ukie vs gfs batle coming up? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 That's pretty...Uncle UKIE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 8.0" couple hours ago. Brutally wet and heavy. Limbs breaking everywhere. Easy 12" north wapello county right now. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 There is a solid/multi-model signal for a significant amount of lake enhanced precip on the western shore of Lake Michigan... not just a little bit. Frankly the parameters look pretty mundane until later on as the surface low is pulling away and much colder air aloft spreads in, but can't ignore the signal and the guidance is really hitting on it for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There is a solid/multi-model signal for a significant amount of lake enhanced precip on the western shore of Lake Michigan... not just a little bit. Frankly the parameters look pretty mundane until later on as the surface low is pulling away and much colder air aloft spreads in, but can't ignore the signal and the guidance is really hitting on it for some reason. Ya, I have noticed that also and would like to see temps trend a touch more colder as we get closer. Track will be important along with strength of the Low to tug down that cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Early forecasts around here calling for approximately 3-6”, give or take, with winds gusting to 35 mph. Starting about lunchtime Thursday through Friday morning. Would be a nice addition to the snowpack. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Tom said: Ya, I have noticed that also and would like to see temps trend a touch more colder as we get closer. Track will be important along with strength of the Low to tug down that cold air. If models are to be believed, then the lake enhancement would add on several inches along the WI/IL shore. More marginal thermal profiles at the shore could complicate things just a little bit at the immediate lakefront, but maybe not. Will be curious to see what the HRRR spits out when it gets in range as it's known to be hot with lake enhancement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Interesting euro at 72 is weaker but looks farther west? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Looking aloft so far, can already tell that the Euro is probably not going to turn out like the GFS. We'll see if it backs off any from its 00z run though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looking aloft so far, can already tell that the Euro is probably not going to turn out like the GFS. We'll see if it backs off any from its 00z run though. Looks similar to 0z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Definitely not like the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Overall, this run isn't backing down one bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Definitely increased the totals in WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Euro wind fields are weaker than one would expect for a rapidly intensifying and super deep surface low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 What in the world?!? 12z Euro is showing almost 10 inches here from Thursday-Saturday while almost every other model is showing 1-2 inches or less. Either the Euro is way off-base and is going to look like a complete fool in a couple days, or it's correct and will regain it's crown as the King. I'm betting on the former but will certainly welcome the latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Euro wind fields are weaker than one would expect for a rapidly intensifying and super deep surface low. I see Steebo is wishing this east and saying euro won’t happen etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Money said: I see Steebo is wishing this east and saying euro won’t happen etc Well, not an entirely unreasonable thought given the historic nature of the Euro. But any outcome is still possible. Will be curious to see the EPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 IMO the 12z GEFS favors the Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Here's a map of the all-time lowest pressures by station. May have to click to enlarge. Just add a decimal between the second and third numbers and put a 9 in front to get the pressure in millibars. As you can see, we'd be near or lower than some all-time readings if some of the deeper models pan out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 For Iowa, this piece of energy appears to be important. The main, southern, energy is going to swing east and northeast around that blue-circled energy. Plus, that energy acts to pull moisture back into Iowa. Iowa needs that energy to be stronger and hold farther west. The GFS is shooting it eastward more, so the main energy can't cut until farther east. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 The 12z EPS is wild. Pardon me, but omfg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 12z EPS is wild. Pardon me, but omfg And you say that, why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 The op fits within the ensemble spread, but a number of members are even deeper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 QPF 24 hr mean similar to op euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 EPS control member laying down between 4-5" of 10:1 ratio snows from this system in Omaha; assuming the ~18:1 ratios that most models seem to be targeting, this would likely exceed half a foot. Neat stuff. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 14 minutes ago, The Snowman said: EPS control member laying down between 4-5" of 10:1 ratio snows from this system in Omaha; assuming the ~18:1 ratios that most models seem to be targeting, this would likely exceed half a foot. Neat stuff. This would be one heck of a refresher snow... I would gladly take another 4-6" on top of what we got. We need to build the snowpack for the cold stretch ahead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here's a map of the all-time lowest pressures by station. May have to click to enlarge. Just add a decimal between the second and third numbers and put a 9 in front to get the pressure in millibars. As you can see, we'd be near or lower than some all-time readings if some of the deeper models pan out. That's a great map. Do you happen to have one for Highest Pressures? And then one can do the math of greatest deviation. -- would be interesting comparing the Fl Keys to say parts of ND etc. I think it's closer than people think even with Labor Day 1935 892mb in the Keys -- a 1070 H blows FL outta of the water-- literaly-- but just a hunch. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: That's a great map. Do you happen to have one for Highest Pressures? And then one can do the math of greatest deviation. -- would be interesting comparing the Fl Keys to say parts of ND etc. I think it's closer than people think even with Labor Day 1935 892mb in the Keys -- a 1070 H blows FL outta of the water-- literaly-- but just a hunch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Nam is gonna join euro IMO looks almost identical to it compared to gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Little worried I may be a shade too far south, maybe not. Legit blizz conditions looking likely for a lot of people regardless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Chambana said: Little worried I may be a shade too far south, maybe not. Legit blizz conditions looking likely for a lot of people regardless. Can someone post maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Nam is about 5 mb stronger than 12z and a bit farther west 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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