January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Hoosier]

 

[Money]

[Hoosier]

With the UKMET looking like that, I'd be a little surprised if the Euro comes in looking like the GFS.  No guarantees though.

[Money]

This is 0z

[Hoosier]

Here's the UKMET at 84 hrs.  

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the UKMET at 84 hrs.  

At 84 hrs, the GFS has the surface low over Cincinnati.  Who will be right?  Compromise?

[bud2380]

 

Ratios should be better than 10:1 with this one too.  

[Money]

Could we have a classic euro/Ukie vs gfs batle coming up?

[Tom]

That's pretty...Uncle UKIE...

 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

8.0" couple hours ago. Brutally wet and heavy. Limbs breaking everywhere.   Easy 12" north wapello  county right now.

[Hoosier]

There is a solid/multi-model signal for a significant amount of lake enhanced precip on the western shore of Lake Michigan... not just a little bit.  Frankly the parameters look pretty mundane until later on as the surface low is pulling away and much colder air aloft spreads in, but can't ignore the signal and the guidance is really hitting on it for some reason.

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There is a solid/multi-model signal for a significant amount of lake enhanced precip on the western shore of Lake Michigan... not just a little bit.  Frankly the parameters look pretty mundane until later on as the surface low is pulling away and much colder air aloft spreads in, but can't ignore the signal and the guidance is really hitting on it for some reason.

Ya, I have noticed that also and would like to see temps trend a touch more colder as we get closer.   Track will be important along with strength of the Low to tug down that cold air.

[CentralNebWeather]

Early forecasts around here calling for approximately 3-6”, give or take, with winds gusting to 35 mph. Starting about lunchtime Thursday through Friday morning.  Would be a nice addition to the snowpack. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya, I have noticed that also and would like to see temps trend a touch more colder as we get closer.   Track will be important along with strength of the Low to tug down that cold air.

If models are to be believed, then the lake enhancement would add on several inches along the WI/IL shore.  More marginal thermal profiles at the shore could complicate things just a little bit at the immediate lakefront, but maybe not.

Will be curious to see what the HRRR spits out when it gets in range as it's known to be hot with lake enhancement.

[Money]

Interesting euro at 72 is weaker but looks farther west? 

[Hoosier]

Looking aloft so far, can already tell that the Euro is probably not going to turn out like the GFS.  We'll see if it backs off any from its 00z run though.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looking aloft so far, can already tell that the Euro is probably not going to turn out like the GFS.  We'll see if it backs off any from its 00z run though.

Looks similar to 0z

[Hoosier]

Definitely not like the GFS.

[Money]

[Hoosier]

Overall, this run isn't backing down one bit.

[Money]

Definitely increased the totals in WI 

[Hoosier]

Euro wind fields are weaker than one would expect for a rapidly intensifying and super deep surface low.  

[hawkstwelve]

What in the world?!? 12z Euro is showing almost 10 inches here from Thursday-Saturday while almost every other model is showing 1-2 inches or less. Either the Euro is way off-base and is going to look like a complete fool in a couple days, or it's correct and will regain it's crown as the King. I'm betting on the former but will certainly welcome the latter.

[Money]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro wind fields are weaker than one would expect for a rapidly intensifying and super deep surface low.  

I see Steebo is wishing this east and saying euro won’t happen etc 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

I see Steebo is wishing this east and saying euro won’t happen etc 

Well, not an entirely unreasonable thought given the historic nature of the Euro.  But any outcome is still possible.  Will be curious to see the EPS.

[Clinton]

IMO the 12z GEFS favors the Canadian.

[Hoosier]

Here's a map of the all-time lowest pressures by station.  May have to click to enlarge.  Just add a decimal between the second and third numbers and put a 9 in front to get the pressure in millibars.  

As you can see, we'd be near or lower than some all-time readings if some of the deeper models pan out.

[Hawkeye]

For Iowa, this piece of energy appears to be important.  The main, southern, energy is going to swing east and northeast around that blue-circled energy.  Plus, that energy acts to pull moisture back into Iowa.  Iowa needs that energy to be stronger and hold farther west.  The GFS is shooting it eastward more, so the main energy can't cut until farther east.

[Hoosier]

The 12z EPS is wild.  Pardon me, but omfg

[KTPmidMO]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The 12z EPS is wild.  Pardon me, but omfg

And you say that, why?

[Hoosier]

The op fits within the ensemble spread, but a number of members are even deeper.

[Money]

QPF 24 hr mean 

similar to op euro 

[The Snowman]

EPS control member laying down between 4-5" of 10:1 ratio snows from this system in Omaha; assuming the ~18:1 ratios that most models seem to be targeting, this would likely exceed half a foot. Neat stuff.

[Bryan1117]

14 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

EPS control member laying down between 4-5" of 10:1 ratio snows from this system in Omaha; assuming the ~18:1 ratios that most models seem to be targeting, this would likely exceed half a foot. Neat stuff.

This would be one heck of a refresher snow... I would gladly take another 4-6" on top of what we got. We need to build the snowpack for the cold stretch ahead. 

[Grizzcoat]

59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a map of the all-time lowest pressures by station.  May have to click to enlarge.  Just add a decimal between the second and third numbers and put a 9 in front to get the pressure in millibars.  

As you can see, we'd be near or lower than some all-time readings if some of the deeper models pan out.

That's a great map. Do you happen to have one for Highest Pressures?  And then one can do the math of greatest deviation. -- would be interesting comparing the Fl Keys to say parts of ND etc. I think it's closer than people think even with Labor Day 1935 892mb in the Keys -- a 1070 H blows FL outta of the water-- literaly-- but just a hunch.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

That's a great map. Do you happen to have one for Highest Pressures?  And then one can do the math of greatest deviation. -- would be interesting comparing the Fl Keys to say parts of ND etc. I think it's closer than people think even with Labor Day 1935 892mb in the Keys -- a 1070 H blows FL outta of the water-- literaly-- but just a hunch.

 

[Money]

Nam is gonna join euro IMO 

looks almost identical to it compared to gfs 

[Chambana]

Little worried I may be a shade too far south, maybe not. Legit blizz conditions looking likely for a lot of people regardless. 

[uticasnow]

5 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Little worried I may be a shade too far south, maybe not. Legit blizz conditions looking likely for a lot of people regardless. 

Can someone post maps?

[Money]

Nam is about 5 mb stronger than 12z and a bit farther west