January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

IMO the 12z GEFS favors the Canadian.

We may be a little too far south for this too. 

[Money]

Nam 

[Clinton]

12z EPS

12z GEFS

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Money said:

Nam 

Would be epic totals in northwest IN.  Already 20" at the end of the run with hours of snow to go.

[uticasnow]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be epic totals in northwest IN.  Already 20" at the end of the run with hours of snow to go.

I thought the map showed 8.4" in northwestern Indiana

[Clinton]

18z ICON at hr 66 is going to be a nice run for mby and other Missouri folks

[Money]

Icon 

 

icon/NAM/Euro/Ukie vs GFS/CMC

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

I thought the map showed 8.4" in northwestern Indiana

[CentralNebWeather]

18z ICON. Nice hit for Nebraska. 

[indianajohn]

That would be a once in 50 year non lake effect snow storm  for our parts.

[Jayhawker85]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think the NAM is wrong again, the low is strengthening and through Oklahoma and Arkansas but the snow shield is clear up in Iowa? Seems very off….

[CentralNebWeather]

18z ICON to 84 hours 

[Money]

[Tom]

I'd love to see this officially BOMB into the lower lakes...

[uticasnow]

Come ON!...We need this is southeast Michigan.  Only a trace of snow so far this season.  It's been pathetic

[hawkstwelve]

NWS FSD AFD on the model battle for this storm...

Additional chances for light snow return late Thursday afternoon
into Friday as a system well of to our south begins to traverse the
central plains, though it looks like we will be missing out on the
bulk of the moisture and forcing. Guidance continues to hint that
snow looks most likely south of I-90, possibly even as far south as
the highway 20 corridor, with a fairly sharp gradient on the
 north side due to northerly flow from the surface through the mid-
levels. Amounts are looking to remain on the light side, generally
less than an inch, though there is considerable uncertainty amongst
the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Looking at clustering
analysis, it is shown that there is a general pattern where two of
the clusters are dominated by the ECMWF, and the other two dominated
by the GEFS, with the GEPS split fairly evenly amongst the 4 cluster
solutions. What this means is that model biases are determining the
sorting process, so it`s difficult to put more weight on any one
solution. So, currently we are favoring the GEFS solution which
keeps the track of the low further to the south, while the ECMWF has
a track further to the north thus resulting in more snow, though
still generally below 2 inches.

[Money]

Gfs is coming in stronger and north 

[Money]

GFS is a bit later with the pressure drop but a bit better this run compared to 12z

[CentralNebWeather]

18z RGEM 

[Grizzcoat]

Graphic is records for KDSM

Likely (very) not going to happen but that I'am even posting the chances are remarkable considering the pattern we just busted out.

All time JAN snowfall 37.0" (VERY SAFE) Unreal record.

Highest 7 day total  26.2" (Very safe)      Unreal record

Most snow on the ground 22"   ( that clipper and another 10"-- not so safe) but not still safe--- breakable in this pattern but not likely

Still that I even write this is something else.

 

 

[Clinton]

EAX early call on the storm

AFD:

Thursday into Thursday night a upper level trough will dig from the
central Rockies into the central and southern Plains. This will
force an attendant surface low to develop and deepen across the
panhandles of OK/TX. This will force the pressure gradient to
tighten across the area north of the now stationary front south of
the area ushering in much colder air. Thursday night this surface
low will move across Oklahoma as a LLJ develops ahead of it which
will override the stationary front forcing moisture northward into
the cold air in place. As such snow is expected to develop over the
area Thursday night and continue into Friday as the surface low
passes south of the area. How much snow and who will receive the
heaviest amounts will depend on the track. The GFS and EC have a
much further south track than the NAM and would bring at least
advisory level snow to the entire area. The NAM solution would bring
heavier snow to northern Missouri with lesser amounts across the
southern CWA. So exact track of this system will still need to be
ironed out however, it is increasing likely that most if not entire
area will receive another round of accumulating snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS wants to bring more snow across Nebraska on Sunday 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

GFS wants to bring more snow across Nebraska on Sunday 

EAX makes mention of that in there AFD.  As cold as it will be it won't take much to produce a few inches of snow.

[Hoosier]

Already in RAP range 

[Black Hole]

EPS mean 500 heights and MSLP for the 12z, 00z, and previous 12z runs. The main trend has been to slow the surface trough slightly, deepen it a bit more (sooner), and to also advance the surface high and cold air a bit faster behind the trough. 

For me the effect has been to increase from no snow to perhaps 1-2". If we could keep the trend going a bit more we might be able to increase totals but it still doesn't look real likely. Worst case scenario is nothing, best is probably 3-4" with the most likely outcome being 1-2". 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Not bad. 

[hawkstwelve]

Looking at ensemble member panels, there are more GFS-like solutions among the EPS members than there are ECMWF-like solutions among the GEFS members. Might be a clue to which model camp will win, at least for out here. 

I wonder which model OP will blink first? More often than not I side with the Euro, which has generally worked out well. But in this case I have feeling the GFS is right. 

[Bumblin Bman09]

@Tom I mentioned earlier my wife is flying out of ORD at 6pm Friday evening.  I am considering moving her flight to Thursday evening.  What are your thoughts on this storm with where we stand now.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

@Tom I mentioned earlier my wife is flying out of ORD at 6pm Friday evening.  I am considering moving her flight to Thursday evening.  What are your thoughts on this storm with where we stand now.

I would move her flight 100%...Thursday pm is the "Calm before the Storm"...

[The Snowman]

Gnarly Kuchera numbers from the 18z Euro... one can dream of almost a foot of fluff!

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro. 

[Hoosier]

At 72 hrs, the 18z Euro is 9 mb stronger than the 18z GFS at the same time.

[Bumblin Bman09]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

I would move her flight 100%...Thursday pm is the "Calm before the Storm"...

Thanks @Tom .  I was leaning that way but was looking for reassurance.  On with airline now.  Thanks again

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro is a move to the GFS for totals out here. Pretty decent shift south. Not surprised. 

[The Snowman]

Chicago absolutely buried on that Euro run (subtract ~4" from Cook/Lake/McHenry nexus area to account for today's event)

[The Snowman]

Nice tidbit from Omaha AFD on why the NBM is too low:

 

Quote

Thursday through Monday: Before getting into specifics, the general forecast for the this period is that there are several chances for snow and there will be dangerously cold temperatures. The next 6 to 14 days are expected to have temperatures below normal. In the case of this weekend, it will be well below normal.

 

Getting more specific, temperatures Thursday will start on the cold side with low temperatures dropping below 15 degrees for the entire area. Areas north of the Platte River will drop into the single digits. Light winds will result in minimum wind chill temperatures near -15. Unfortunately that will be considered "warm" given the extended forecast. High temperatures will not warm up much and will range between 11 and 29 degrees.A more robust mid-level shortwave will move across the central CONUS which will provide another chance for measurable snowfall beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday. NBM guidance suggested a 30 to 60 percent chance for precipitation across the area and this is far too low. The EPS and GEFS had 80 to 100 percent of ensemble members producing at least 0.01" or higher of liquid precipitation. The EPS had 80 to 100 percent of members producing at least 0.1" of liquid precipitation across the entire forecast area. There are some model difference which is why the NBM is coming in lower. The GFS not only has lower QPF, but there are some location differences between the two models. The GFS favors a more southerly track while the ECMWF is farther north. An additional 1 to 7 inches of snowfall could be observed across the area with higher amounts expected in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Confidence is lower in specific snowfall amounts and more time will be need for the models to come to a consensus. Unlike the system from yesterday, temperatures will not be a factor in undercutting snowfall totals. It`ll be how much moisture can be drawn north ahead of the trough and the path of the surface low. There are additional 20 to 30 percent chances for light snowfall Saturday and Sunday.

 

[Chambana]

Another Chicago blizz. Close to throwing in the towel here. I busted high on my 1” cement call here today. It takes a special track for us to get a 2/13/07 redux. Congrats to those up north. 

[Pros3lyte]

14 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Chicago absolutely buried on that Euro run (subtract ~4" from Cook/Lake/McHenry nexus area to account for today's event)

Anyway to include MI in this map?

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Chambana said:

Another Chicago blizz. Close to throwing in the towel here. I busted high on my 1” cement call here today. It takes a special track for us to get a 2/13/07 redux. Congrats to those up north. 

I hope it comes back south for both of our sakes.  Should do well here, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't just a wee bit nervous about subtle northward shifts.  The wave that will be moving into the southern Plains is pretty amped, and it's possible that the neg tilting trough could try to pull the surface low a little bit farther west.  I'm more concerned about that possibility than anything else.

[Chambana]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I hope it comes back south for both of our sakes.  Should do well here, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't just a wee bit nervous about subtle northward shifts.  The wave that will be moving into the southern Plains is pretty amped, and it's possible that the neg tilting trough could try to pull the surface low a little bit farther west.  I'm more concerned about that possibility than anything else.

You’re golden. Enjoy the storm. I’m going 2” here.