January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF looks great so far.

[Front Ranger]

Full steam ahead.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks like a strong Arctic front up north. Actually looks like PSCZ. Let’s drop that south.

I like that! 

[Phishy Wx]

MODEL WARS

[TT-SEA]

Thursday arctic front snow per ECMWF.

[RCola]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Mostly they are ugly. Unicorn vomit.

Like chief developer, like model

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Day 4, 3 run trend!

DIG!!!

[Weiner Warrior]

I need this to stall here for about 6 hours

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Thursday arctic front snow per ECMWF.

[iFred]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, iFred said:

You truly believe the EURO is going to cave to the GFs and drastically change its output 4 days out? How many times has it done that?

[Front Ranger]

Timing of Arctic front has actually sped up a bit, comparing to yesterday's 12z.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does end up with a little eastward shift by Friday.

[snow_wizard]

IMO this is the knockout punch for the GFS.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does end up with a little eastward shift by Friday.

Yeah definitely a little worse than the 00z. Still extremely cold though

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does end up with a little eastward shift by Friday.

Hopefully that stops,  little steps like that over 5 days can add up a BUNCH. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wojak needs to just join the party! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Day 5, 3 run trend! Woohooo!

[SnarkyGoblin]

Ice /sleet at the woodland Park zoo.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Yeah definitely a little worse than the 00z. Still extremely cold though

This is how it starts, its just a little, next run its just a little. Had to start the east trend movement eventually. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Day 5, 3 run trend! Woohooo!

Another block improvement like this and it could get forced a bit more SW.

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You truly believe the EURO is going to cave to the GFs and drastically change its output 4 days out? How many times has it done that?

I don’t have to believe anything, I close my eyes and envision a landscape covered in waist high snow, an arctic touch to the air and sky, and dark grey clouds on the horizon with more winter treats to deliver. Then I say “This will be remembered for the next 100 years. This will last weeks. This will be historic for the entire region. More than three people will show up at the meet up.”

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

-19C for 850s over SEA on this run vs -18 on the 0z.  Actually a colder run.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

[SimplySmoothWX]

16 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Interesting that the WRF-GFS also picks up on some snow around this time. Maybe this is a trend in development?

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Day 5, 3 run trend! Woohooo!

That looks more like a tilt than a shift east.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN!!

I’m in the silvery white! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Day 5, 3 run trend! Woohooo!

 

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Another block improvement like this and it could get forced a bit for SW.

[lowlandsnow]

It's over, winter is cancelled

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Yeah definitely a little worse than the 00z. Still extremely cold though

Ah...no.

Slightly colder and a bit harder push with the cold air.  Flash freeze!

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I don’t have to believe anything, I close my eyes and envision a landscape covered in waist high snow, an arctic touch to the air and sky, and dark grey clouds on the horizon with more winter treats to deliver. Then I say “This will be remembered for the next 100 years. This will last weeks. This will be historic for the entire region. More than three people will show up at the meet up.”

arriving to the meetup 4 days late 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

But it corrects itself the next frame and stays farther west

After I look closer it almost looks stretched north to south more so than a solid east movement. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

It's over, winter is cancelled

Eh I’m not too worried about that

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You truly believe the EURO is going to cave to the GFs and drastically change its output 4 days out? How many times has it done that?

I don't think he's implying that, just a more sensible middle of the road solution that is more like the GFS, ATM

[snow_wizard]

Love that Kona low still hanging out at day 6.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

After I look closer it almost looks stretched north to south more so than a solid east movement. 

The entire stretched out arc is quite a bit east compared to 00Z run one week from today.

[The Cats Meow]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You truly believe the EURO is going to cave to the GFs and drastically change its output 4 days out? How many times has it done that?

I think he's just trolling and it's epic.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure what this talk is of the warmer run.

[Cloud]

W.r.t the east shift movement, it’s basically going back to what the 12z was showing yesterday. Can’t call it a trend or anything. Should be fine.