January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Why is it the gfs that is causing the disparity? Maybe it’s the icon that’s smoking. They’ve all been creeping toward the gfs the last few runs.

GEM and EURO both had us in the low teens only two days ago and that’s completely off the table now. They’re the ones that seem crazy in retrospect. 

You sticking to your call for snowy Puget Sound? 

[Weiner Warrior]

More snow

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM made a move toward the ICON.

Not sure about that... 12Z GEM is way farther east by early next week than its 00Z run.  

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

You sticking to your call for snowy Puget Sound? 

Yes. This will look more like the gfs in terms of snow than the drier euro from yesterday.

The 12+ inches is likely overdoing it. But the trace to 2 inches is way too low:

The other maps will start filling in shortly 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about that... 12Z GEM is way farther east by early next week than its 00Z run.  

Looks like a cold inversion forms and keeps the snow at PDX from melting

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GEM is truly insane for Friday into Saturday. Send an AR into Oregon. Starts as cold rain, turns to freezing rain and finally snow for the Portland Metro area.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks like a cold inversion forms and keeps the snow at PDX from melting

Big time.  

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of inversions... 12Z GEM is pretty crazy.  

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GEM is truly insane for Friday into Saturday. Send an AR into Oregon. Starts as cold rain, turns to freezing rain and finally snow for the Portland Metro area.

Somebody is going to be get pounded this weekend. Just going to be a matter of how the system tracks.

[Olive1010]

What's with that sneaker low coming in tomorrow-Wed? Any chance of that doing much other than rain for the valley?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

What's with that sneaker low coming in tomorrow-Wed? Any chance of that doing much other than rain for the valley?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GEM is truly insane for Friday into Saturday. Send an AR into Oregon. Starts as cold rain, turns to freezing rain and finally snow for the Portland Metro area.

Looks like over 6” of rain here with a few inches of snow on the back end. Would be exciting.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Slight coating of slush here this morning... drizzling now though.  

About the same here. Rather disappointing. Last December’s brief slushfall was better. 33.0˚F.

[TacomaWx]

Even if we get a major event up here in Puget sound hard not to be disappointed with the full on Arctic regional outbreak seemingly off the table. Could’ve been fun times for everyone. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last nights 00z EURO output for PDX.  The system arrives at Friday 10pm while PDX is at 22 with icy cold gorge east winds. Snow ends Sunday 4am with 9.3” of snow with the system. Saturday has temps hovering around 20 all day.

[Kayla]

12z GEM shows nearly an inch of precip with the boundary stalling right over Bozeman with temps -5F to -10F for about 36 hours straight.

Would likely see 50:1 snow ratios with that outcome. If only!

[the_convergence_zone]

Even a wimpy upper-air disturbance will go nuts with that baroclinic zone over the weekend. 

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Why is it the gfs that is causing the disparity? Maybe it’s the icon that’s smoking. They’ve all been creeping toward the gfs the last few runs.

GEM and EURO both had us in the low teens only two days ago and that’s completely off the table now. They’re the ones that seem crazy in retrospect. 

GFS want as off the rails as we thought a few days ago but things are meeting in the middle like we kind of assumed. 12Z GEFS bottoms out at -14C for YVR, there were a couple runs on the weekend where it was in the -8C range.  On the other side those crazy -20 to -24C runs we saw on the other models also aren’t going to happen. 

[MossMan]

Warning shot! 

[iFred]

Catching up with things this morning and it seems that my earlier call for devastating trends with this mornings runs was correct. No need to thank me or send me congratulations, knowing that I could provide a public service to all of you is thanks enough.

Looks fun for folks east of the Cascades and deep in the Frasier valley though. Long range is supporting that idea that I can get some yard work going by early Feb too. Can't complain, everything is looking up Milhouse.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GEM is truly insane for Friday into Saturday. Send an AR into Oregon. Starts as cold rain, turns to freezing rain and finally snow for the Portland Metro area.

Such an interesting progression with freezing rain in the middle.  That would never happen here.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 UKMET days 3 and 4.

 

[MossMan]

Really dumping down now, starting to stick to the bark. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12 UKMET days 3 and 4.

 

Very cold Gorge wind

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z UKMET has a system arriving over the weekend. Looks like it makes landfall along the Northern OR Coast.

 

[Randyc321]

19 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GEM is truly insane for Friday into Saturday. Send an AR into Oregon. Starts as cold rain, turns to freezing rain and finally snow for the Portland Metro area.

This is going to be unpopular, but it's starting to look like tis be a pretty snowy weekend in Western Wa.

It's too early and I bet this creeps north.

[Doinko]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET has a system arriving over the weekend. Looks like it makes landfall along the Northern OR Coast.

 

Big snow for us

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Big snow for us

 

Seeing some of the models a bit south compared to the gfs still gives me hope that PDX metro can salvage something good out of this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is definitely looking like a big event for someone. Smells of 1998 or 2021. Can we still call this winter a dud anyway so we have it out of our system? Either way I think the weak nina next winter will be BANGIN’!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Big snow for us

 

Yeah big snowstorm for PDX. Snow arrives Friday evening. Similar to the 00z EURO. Here we go!!!

[Mid Valley Duck]

UKMET is a great run for PDX metro. Two lows come in the perfect spot.

[Minion]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah big snowstorm for PDX. Snow arrives Friday evening. Similar to the 00z EURO. Here we go!!!

 

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is definitely looking like a big event for someone. Smells of 1998 or 2021. Can we still call this winter a dud anyway so we have it out of our system? Either way I think the weak nina next winter will be BANGIN’!

Next winter will be good

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEFS still really good for snow. No step backs yet 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Very cold Gorge wind

 

As long as we can get a Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin I like our chances. The Gorge will do its magic and transport that Arctic air to us. We’re still in a good part of winter where we can maximize cold anomalies. This is isn’t November or February. Plus this Arctic airmass dropping down is frigid.

[Mid Valley Duck]

At this point historic cold and major arctic blast at the upper levels is off the table. However, someone from Salem to Longview should have a decent event tomorrow night and the Friday system looks like it could be a historic snow/ice even from someone between Bellingham and Eugene (most likely areas are Seattle south to Portland).

[Slushy Inch]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic front snow from Thursday morning through Friday morning... 

Enough to cancel a flight?

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Enough to cancel a flight?

Enough to make them have to de-ice at Sea-Tac, which always causes chaos. Should be enough to keep those plug doors frozen shut as well. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

UKMET is a great run for PDX metro. Two lows come in the perfect spot.

Sunday looks fun as well. Snow makes it ways up to Puget sound.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Enough to cancel a flight?

What time is the flight?

[Andstorm]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Such an interesting progression with freezing rain in the middle.  That would never happen here.  

I believe Dec 2008 event played out a like that in Portland. Unfortunately this upcoming pattern feels awfully similar to Feb 2021 in Portland, when a primarily snow forecast quickly turned into a disastrous ice event. Those 850 temps are going to mean everything. As was case in Dec 2008 and Feb 2021, models drastically over-accelerate the surface temp modification. Any area with Gorge influence will likely stay locked into cold for 2-4 days longer than models predict. happens every single time.