January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[RaleighHillsRunner]

57 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Not so much hedging but rather patient.  He is hard fast :  7-10 days:  Pattern Reconition.  Something interesting could be on the way.  5--7 days Trending up or down.  Will it be cold enough?  Moisture?  3-5 days is about timing and intensity.  (becoming likely).  1-3 days out , forecast details.  Amts and location.  He's posted this before.  Those are his parameters. 

[snow_wizard]

Ridge ends up right on top of us.  A great thing when you have snow cover and cold air in place.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

When was the last time we saw a ZR to snow situation? I only remember seeing the opposite

Happened rather brilliantly on 12/21/2008. Massive burst of snow that afternoon following a night of ZR. Picked up about 2" in a couple of hours with that back bent occlusion. Then the low drifted further south and really nailed NW OR the following morning with snow.

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yo, this weather forum meet up is happening on Thursday right? Got a babysitter and cancelled some meetings. Just wanted to make sure @iFred @Meatyorologist @RentonHill

Wait was this an actual plan?

[fubario]

12 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

What I didn't notice is that 10:00 pm Friday night the snow turns over to ZR and we get a half-inch of ice overnight Friday night on top of a foot of snow.

That has January 2012 vibes. The same weekend even I think. Did major damage here.

please..no

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually worry about things ending up too suppressed more than too far north.

Yeah we need to be right in the middle of the battleground. No trending south!!! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I'm in the blue!

I'm in the white! 

[snow_wizard]

A GEM / GFS blend would be the ultimate.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Oh man. GFS has snow starting here around 4:00 am Friday and lasting throughout the day with temps in the mid-upper 20s. By 10:00 pm it has snowed a foot. Absolute perfection. The things I would do for this to verify.

Too bad it warms above freezing by 11:00 Saturday morning.

Strong Jan 2012 vibes.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Hyperbolic Trendz said:

I was just going to respond the same, but I was hesitant thinking maybe that was just a S. metro thing.  I think we even switched over and back for a few hours during the big Saturday event on (I believe) the 20th.  

Yeah we switched over here very late on the 20th and spent about 10 hours in the warm sector. Went back to snow late morning on the 21st and then picked up a few inches that evening with the cold trough axis moving onshore while offshore low level flow persisted. Dream scenario. 

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah we need to be right in the middle of the battleground. No trending south!!! 

I’m stressing that we’re gonna be too far north Sure hope we end up in a decent spot when this is all over!!

[snow_wizard]

Lots to like right now.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Strong Jan 2012 vibes.

Except it gets cold and dry afterward.  Not the case in 2012.

[awright-31]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Except it gets cold and dry afterward.  Not the case in 2012.

Cold and dry when we're covered in a foot of snow followed by half an inch of ZR. Yikes.

Could only hope the upper levels don't warm enough to allow for that.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  GFS has us going into an inversion and staying cold.  Nice when it's snowy!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Except it gets cold and dry afterward.  Not the case in 2012.

Well past Sunday too early to tell yet…but either way hard not to be happy about the runs tonight in the short term.

[lowlandsnow]

Nice improvement on the GEFS especially for Portland

[snow_wizard]

Just now, awright-31 said:

Cold and dry when we're covered in a foot of snow followed by half an inch of ZR. Yikes.

Could only hope the upper levels don't warm enough to allow for that.

Not buying the ZR.  Maybe some, but even a half inch isn't ridiculous.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice run!

Offshore flow kicks in later in the weekend and puts us in a nice cold / dry air situation.

The dry air completely decimates that system the GFS shows bombing out. Recent runs have it coming ashore before it collapses but I've certainly seen these things be torn up by the dry air before they even hit the coast (maybe how the ECMWF, ICON and GEM handled it?). They tend to hold together better when they track up from the south but then you risk them bombing out and bringing a rush of warm air in.

This even has a lot of similarities to Jan 2020 so far with the PV driving the pattern rather than the Pacific ridge. That event dumped around 15" of snow here and was cool/dry for about a week after the Arctic air was pushed out.

I'd gladly see this one go to southern areas as I won't even be here to enjoy it next weekend. But I'm sure we'll end up with the best January blast since 1969 because I decided to leave on vacation for a couple weeks in a strong Nino winter .

 

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think you’re right about the date. I was trying to remember myself. I think it was near the tail end of the first big storm of the sequence that the mid levels briefly warmed enough for some zr.

Probably the greatest weather day of my life.  10-12 hours of continuous snow (brief ice intermission)  with very little  (if any) nervous busting-energy and the cold comfort of knowing it would be there to enjoy for several days to come.  

[Deweydog]

Can’t remember any strong comparisons for a legit scenario where we go from a massive overrunning event into a strong cold pool pattern. 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Except it gets cold and dry afterward.  Not the case in 2012.

True. That's how it looks now, at least.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Lots to like right now.

Could do without the 2" of ice being shown, but otherwise the runs tonight are a nice rebound. Our floor for the event at this point still seems to be a major winter storm and a few cold days. 

[Sandy rocks]

Wow this is crazy weather. I wouldn't want to forecast these next two storms. It's so hard here because of the gorge. Whatever happens it is going to difficult to get around. The weather service better get off their asses and do more than what they have done to this point.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Can’t remember any strong comparisons for a legit scenario where we go from a massive overrunning event into a strong cold pool pattern. 

I bet Justin has one pre-1950. If it exists.

[RayRay]

The government weather forecasting is on drugs

it says 40 f and rain / snow

and 22f and rain/snow

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Can’t remember any strong comparisons for a legit scenario where we go from a massive overrunning event into a strong cold pool pattern. 

Well you better think of something d*mnit

[Chewbacca Defense]

What's the thought on I-5 from Bellingham to Seatac early Thursday morning?

 

My son is wanting to drive down for a 7am flight out of Seatac.  He is driving with a Subaru with Winter tires, and he got plenty of winter driving experience in a '98 Subaru when he lived in Bozeman for 4 years, so I'm not worried about him.

Looks like temp and precip are marginal, but no idea how to call it for Randy's neck of the woods down to Everett, seems like it can get pretty sh*tty there when other areas are ok.

Been trying to get him to get a hotel at Seatac Wednesday night but not having much luck....

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not buying the ZR.  Maybe some, but even a half inch isn't ridiculous.

Will probably be less for you folks up north. I can definitely see at least that in Gorge adjacent areas.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I bet Justin has one pre-1950. If it exists.

I NEED HELP

Been driving me bonkers for several minutes now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Hyperbolic Trendz said:

Probably the greatest weather day of my life.  10-12 hours of continuous snow (brief ice intermission)  with very little  (if any) nervous busting-energy and the cold comfort of knowing it would be there to enjoy for several days to come.  

Agreed. It was a stretch for the ages. Also happened to align with a week where I had a lot of scheduled furlough days at the semiconductor fab I was working at the time (thank you Great Recession) Timing worked out so I had several days off in a row to enjoy the snow without even having to worry about making the trek to work.

[Front Ranger]

The big issue I see with the Dec 20, 2008 comparisons is the cold will be a lot less established here. May not matter too much for Portland if there's cold enough air in the gorge and the low takes the right track, but think we would probably need a bit better Arctic air penetration beforehand to make it happen.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Agreed. It was a stretch for the ages. Also happened to align with a week where I had a lot of scheduled furlough days at the semiconductor fab I was working at the time (thank you Great Recession) Timing worked out so I had several days off in a row to enjoy the snow without even having to worry about making the trek to work.

Timing for the big potential event coming is over the weekend it looks like…which is nice. 

[Kolk1604]

GEFS Alert 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wait was this an actual plan?

yep ima be there

[Perturbed Member]

I'll be pretty happy with the 00z suite if the ECMWF can just hold steady and not cede anymore to the GFS.

Getting snow is great but having prolonged cold after the weekend would be really nice if it could somehow be done. I'm kind of skeptical that we can have this massive overrunning event and then remain that cold for days after but I certainly would enjoy that.

 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, RentonHill said:

yep ima be there

Where and when? or were only the cool people invited? 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

GEFS Alert 

IT IN!! 

[Parrot]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Could do without the 2" of ice being shown, but otherwise the runs tonight are a nice rebound. Our floor for the event at this point still seems to be a major winter storm and a few cold days. 

Floor?? That was the best case scenario. And you just jinxed it 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

What's the thought on I-5 from Bellingham to Seatac early Thursday morning?

 

My son is wanting to drive down for a 7am flight out of Seatac.  He is driving with a Subaru with Winter tires, and he got plenty of winter driving experience in a '98 Subaru when he lived in Bozeman for 4 years, so I'm not worried about him.

Looks like temp and precip are marginal, but no idea how to call it for Randy's neck of the woods down to Everett, seems like it can get pretty sh*tty there when other areas are ok.

Been trying to get him to get a hotel at Seatac Wednesday night but not having much luck....

Temps will be in the 40s in Seattle on Thursday... no issues down here that day until maybe the evening.   Should be good as long as you can back home by 1 p.m.