January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of those area weaker and way south. 

And very few are north of operational run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS is coalescing on the Oregon coast for landfall for the weekend system

Wow, many of those are way south. 

[Doinko]

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS snow on Saturday morning for all members... gives idea on position of moisture.   EPS has 50 members.  And operational for comparison.  

About 20 out of 50 of those look “ok” for Puget Sound. It helps to see that. I still feel a lot can change in the next 24-48 hours. 

[TT-SEA]

Control run looks identical to operational run.  

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I see KVUO pulled off a 35/27 on 2/15. Not bad!

Yeah, daytime high of 34 at PDX and 33 at SEA on Valentine's Day as the arctic front rolled through. Kinda gets buried in the records due to the early morning timing.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kpdx/date/1980-2-14

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/ksea/date/1980-2-14

 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Worth mentioning that for Thursday we’ll continue to drop in temps as the day move along and be in the freezer by 5pm. So 4-5 days worth of cold here. Also for Friday and Saturday we’ll see if we can get below 27 for the daytime max. That has been the standard for quite some time now. 

Interesting point. 

Pretty remarkable that a November event, 2010, still holds the SEA cold marks for both highs (25) and lows (14) of this century so far. The 14 being tied with Dec 2008.

Taking out the high looks potentially doable at least with this.

[Slushy Inch]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF for Seattle and Portland.

A Saturday high in the teens for PDX with snow would be impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

I'll say it again. hard to say what any of this means due to horrific resolution. 

Edited January 9 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Can’t wait to see what it shows for its 00z run. Should be out shortly.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll say it again. hard to say what any of this means due to horrific resolution. 

Yeah it's definitely hard to read but from what I can tell PDX is below freezing the whole time with a big slug of moisture with the low pressure to our south, so I'd guess it's snowy

[Slushy Inch]

Just control things 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, many of those are way south. 

Eugene very much still in this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Just control things 

Sure sure why not?!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Strong cold front incoming for PDX.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sure sure why not?!

It’s far out but a shift towards something interesting!

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Can’t wait to see what it shows for its 00z run. Should be out shortly.

I think that is the 00z run

[Deweydog]

Stormy!

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Strong cold front incoming for PDX.

Been very whet and windy here for a minute. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah it's definitely hard to read but from what I can tell PDX is below freezing the whole time with a big slug of moisture with the low pressure to our south, so I'd guess it's snowy

Looks like PDX metro is on the northern edge of the precip shield, so likely snowy.

[Doinko]

06z HRRR for tomorrow night

[The Winter Warlock]

Shelton posted a 45 MPH gust, but then stopped reporting anything… so…  https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSHN

edit: it updated, maybe just slow - 54 MPH

 

Edited January 9 by The Winter Warlock

[Cascadia_Wx]

Hit 50 this evening for the first time this month, and maybe the last time for at least a little while.

50/39 spread today. Stayed chilly and rainy through the afternoon with easterly flow holding on. Southerlies busted in around 8-9pm and there is now heavy rain moving in with the cold front. Closing in on 1/2” for the day so far.

[Cold Snap]

This is looking to be a very great run for Portland! Hoping the Seattle area can get some good snow as well!

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

About 20 out of 50 of those look “ok” for Puget Sound. It helps to see that. I still feel a lot can change in the next 24-48 hours. 

Absolutely. The track of lows can easily change significantly within 36 hours. Main thing is just watching the trends now and seeing if they sustain or not.

[skywatcher]

I spy with my little eye a cold front 

[Requiem]

Shelton gusting 53 right now-- Rockhouse RAWS in the coast range near Corvallis is gusting 76. I believe the Megler bridge caught a 72 gust earlier this evening.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, The Winter Warlock said:

Shelton posted a 45 MPH gust, but then stopped reporting anything… so…  https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSHN

edit: it updated, maybe just slow - 54 MPH

 

That will do some damage 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

How's it look day 6?

[skywatcher]

And wind just started picking up here - it's time to ride!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snowiest EPS yet. Playing catch up to the GEFS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snowiest EPS yet. Playing catch up to the GEFS?

Looks way better further south. #RegionalDreamz

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think that is the 00z run

Yeah you’re right. Just saw it, looks very similar to the 12z run, except it looks like it has more moisture for us to work with. Bullseye of moisture seems to be pointed at Central OR but hard to tell. We’re looking good up here in PDX Metro.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah you’re right. Just saw it, looks very similar to the 12z run, except it looks like it has more moisture for us to work with. Bullseye of moisture seems to be pointed at Central OR but hard to tell. We’re looking good up here in PDX Metro.

Probably a good thing, better to give up some precip and be on the cooler side of things. 

[Tanis Leach]

TV Stations compared tonight in PDX.

 

Mark has a cold bias now. 

[The Winter Warlock]

Tacoma is next.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks way better further south. #RegionalDreamz

EPS totals were higher for the PS but actually looked like a stepback for the PS and better for Portland/WV. Hard to see since I am just eyeballing and also working at the sametime lol

[CloudJunkie]

19 minutes ago, skywatcher said:

I spy with my little eye a cold front 

Just hit our house in Lakewood like a freight train! Cat is scared.

[Snownerd3000]

Just had a big gust hit the side of my house. Front isn't even here yet.