January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z EURO output for PDX. Snow arrives Friday evening and ends Saturday afternoon. Snow total of 9.3”. Saturday is a struggle getting out of the teens with strong east winds. PDX doesn’t thaw out until Tuesday.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Still a few days out.  Doesn't take much for precipitation location to change.

It's a bummer that nearly all of the higher res models are showing pretty good agreement with the euro on the low over the weekend.  Gfs cave might be imminent.

And yes, I understand rooting for wetter is essentially rooting for more parts of Oregon to be just rain. Nothing we can do about that.

It’s been a few years since a blast was mostly dry up this way, so unfortunately we’re sorta due. At least there will be a bit of snow with the arctic front itself. Models have been advertising the latter basically ever since they started modelling a blast.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That model is actually quite good at surface details.   I think @ShawniganLake said the weather service really relies on it up there.

There is a high res (HRDPS) that the Mets use quite a bit here. It only goes out 48hrs, though.  

[Ziess]

7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z EURO output for PDX. Snow arrives Friday evening and ends Saturday afternoon. Snow total of 9.3”. Saturday is a struggle getting out of the teens with strong east winds. PDX doesn’t thaw out until Tuesday.

 

Is there one of these available for Aurora? 

[Kolk1604]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah the system will straighten and move north like what the GFS is showing. Models will come into better agreement on that by Thursday. BAM! 
 

At least in my dreams…

EPS/GEFS/GEPS has this as a regionwide event. I would say odds are on our side. 

[RayRay]

Looks like a big snowstorm to me…

[SnarkyGoblin]

So get this - Seattle Public Schools will have NO snow days.  The first day schools "close" they will be 2 hours late and then be remote that same day.  Needless to say my 1st grade teacher wife is not happy 

COVID even ruined the joy of snow days for our kids.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

So get this - Seattle Public Schools will have NO snow days.  The first day schools "close" they will be 2 hours late and then be remote that same day.  Needless to say my 1st grade teacher wife is not happy 

COVID even ruined the joy of snow days for our kids.

I'm glad my mandatory school days ended in 1981.  

[Poulsbo Snowman]

That was an impressive cold front last night.  24 year old fence held up to a 46 mph gust.  Wasn't sure it would survive, but it did.   

 

[van city]

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Well it is Tuesday……..

And we still don't know what's going to happen. Madness. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

So get this - Seattle Public Schools will have NO snow days.  The first day schools "close" they will be 2 hours late and then be remote that same day.  Needless to say my 1st grade teacher wife is not happy 

COVID even ruined the joy of snow days for our kids.

Yuck. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Ziess said:

Is there one of these available for Aurora? 

Nope, the only other ones are for Hood River and Government Camp. They are on Marks weather site.

https://www.marknelsenweather.com/

 

[Doinko]

ICON looks like a big snowstorm in places south of Portland

[MossMan]

C’MON GFS OF THE 12z VARIETY…Show the goods! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS for tonight.

[RentonHill]

Next 24 in Portland will be a good test of ICON v GFS snow maps!

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

ICON looks like a big snowstorm in places south of Portland

Low makes landfall along the Central OR Coastline.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON stays south with precip but this is a northward shift from crazy 06Z run and more in line with other models now.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS for tonight.

I’m almost in the blue! 

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON stays south with precip but this is a northward shift from crazy 06Z run and more in line with other models now.

It’s all coming together! 

[RentonHill]

Does anyone know if the NBM uses any sort of AI/ML? Predicting which models will better predict what patterns and surface details depending on location/season/event/known bias etc. basically what we try to do here with a collective knowledge. @iFred can you feed all of forum posts into a LLM and come up with a forum bot or something lol 

[Doinko]

Hoping to see rates like this!

 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

If nobody on the forum lives in Centralia/Chehalis, did it really happen? 

We need someone in Longview or Chehalis.

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOM

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, van city said:

Trending north!

[RentonHill]

GFS slightly further north?

[MikeInEverett]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM

You got PAE (Everett) by chance?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z RGEM/RDPS has it snowing at PDX already by Friday 10am. Here are the snow totals for the Friday system through just Friday 4pm with more snow on the way.

 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

38 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Whatever weather.com uses is on board

 

[umadbro]

6 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

We need someone in Longview or Chehalis.

I’m close to Longview down in Ridgefield 

[The Blob]

I'm excited for the snow, but my kids are going to probably end up being in school till my birthday at the end of June.

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z RGEM/RDPS has it snowing at PDX already by Friday 10am. Here are the snow totals for the Friday system through just Friday 4pm with more snow on the way.

C'mon Canada! Do it for the Blue Jays!

[SnarkyGoblin]

It's really too bad the mobile version of this forum doesn't have a way to show the poster's location.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Next 24 in Portland will be a good test of ICON v GFS snow maps!

 

Icon tends to be pretty stingy with its snow. 

[RentonHill]

Dumpage before the warm nose

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

You got PAE (Everett) by chance?

 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like the gfs isn’t really backing down

[RentonHill]

the GFS is going to be right again

[snow_wizard]

I still say the GFS almost have to go colder at some point.  It would be shocking to have the ECMWF off by so much at this range.