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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

Meatyorologist
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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Here are GEFS members from the 06Z run... just for Friday - Monday to make it easier to decipher.    Definitely more of them here that look like the GFS operational compared to the EPS members.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-or_wa-snow_6hr_multimember_panel-1704780000-1705082400-1705341600-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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jakerepp Mentor

jakerepp

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Well, whaddaya know, the weekend snow trended north!

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5233600.thumb.png.515afe6854ab8891077591d301ea9932.png

 

I'm shocked. SHOCKED!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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RentonHill Grand Master

RentonHill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I fully expect the north/south oscillations to continue for a couple more days. Who knows where it will end up.

A narrow band of heavy snow around centralia. Too north for PDX and too south for SEA

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The system right behind that on Saturday is even further south. But that’s going to pull the Arctic air further south.

IMG_2642.thumb.png.db77ede8cc834ddcca1a87bd1b6d5e93.png

I guarantee you that is the ICON doing ICON things.   It will eventually get closer to the other models.

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jakerepp Mentor

jakerepp

Posted
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3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

A narrow band of heavy snow around centralia. Too north for PDX and too south for SEA

If nobody on the forum lives in Centralia/Chehalis, did it really happen? 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I fully expect the north/south oscillations to continue for a couple more days. Who knows where it will end up.

That first system is a good track for the Seattle area…that second one looks like it’s better up north and would probably bring a crippling ice storm with it. Looks like it cools down after the passage of the second system.  Really can’t complain besides the ice if that’s how it plays out. We will see though the gfs is definitely farther north than most of the models show. 

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The euro suite is much further south than the GFS suite. We’ll see who wins.

00Z Euro was, too far out to see on the 06Z, we shall see where the 12Z puts it. And where it ends up may (will) be different yet.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

00Z Euro was, too far out to see on the 06Z, we shall see where the 12Z puts it. And where it ends up may (will) be different yet.

The control run has been really closely following the operational for the first 7 days so you can pretty much see where the 06Z operational was going using the 06Z control run.   This total snow from Friday evening through Sunday evening.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-snow_48hr-5298400.png

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Blizzard777 Grand Master

Blizzard777

Posted
Posted

Good morning and what a crazy fun 10 minutes of mayhem at midnight! 
getting ready to push off to Ocean Shores to help someone move today.  Should be fun. Hopefully they get the road open before I arrive 
40* 

gusting up to 50 mph currently in Ocean Shores 

 

IMG_0462.png

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

Posted
Posted

NWS Spokane honking Freezer this weekend:

 

Frigid Temperatures to end the week...

Friday through Monday: Bitterly cold and unsettled conditions are 
anticipated through much of the extended forecast. Below zero low 
temps are expected for many locations each morning through Monday, 
especially north of I-90. Chances for snow are forecast for nearly 
every day, particularly across the mountains. That said, the best 
chances for accumulating snowfall are currently looking to occur 
from a Friday afternoon through Saturday night time-frame. Amounts 
are expected to range from 1 to 4 inches (with locally higher 
amounts) for the lowlands, with greater amounts across the higher 
terrain. Confidence in snow totals is not very high at the moment as 
considerable run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistencies remain at 
this time. /KD

 

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah I deleted the post. Tropical tidbits has 2 EURO runs. I forgot the EC-fast goes with 24 hour increments.

It’s colder than the gfs at that time though for sure

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Man Highway 18 is sketch just had another accident right in front of my jobsite. Thankfully the lady is totally ok. Had to get in her car that was on its side to get her stuff. 

That stretch of road is just a horror show.   I don't how people in Maple Valley and Covington use it every day to commute to Bellevue and Redmond.   I would probably just suck it up and go 167 to 405 if I had to do that commute every day.     I remember seeing a news story about that proposed expansion that said 4 employees of Snoqualmie Casino have been killed in crashes in that stretch over the last few years.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

RDPS for Friday

 

prateptype-imp.us_nw.png

That model is actually quite good at surface details.   I think @ShawniganLake said the weather service really relies on it up there.

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That stretch of road is just a horror show.   I don't how people in Maple Valley and Covington use it every day to commute to Bellevue and Redmond.   I would probably just suck it up and go 167 to 405 if I had to do that commute every day.     I remember seeing a news story about that proposed expansion that said 4 employees of Snoqualmie Casino have been killed in crashes in that stretch over the last few years.

Yeah, I drive it everyday feeling like I could get killed. The accidents always seem to happen right near the raging river bridge. I drive real careful because I see accidents here all the time…but thankfully she’s alright! They call this stretch of highway “7 miles of hell” for a reason. 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Trending north 

Yeah the system will straighten and move north like what the GFS is showing. Models will come into better agreement on that by Thursday. BAM! 
 

At least in my dreams…

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Good morning and what a crazy fun 10 minutes of mayhem at midnight! 
getting ready to push off to Ocean Shores to help someone move today.  Should be fun. Hopefully they get the road open before I arrive 
40* 

gusting up to 50 mph currently in Ocean Shores 

 

IMG_0462.png

I love that area. Drive safe!

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SnowWillarrive Grand Master

SnowWillarrive

Posted
Posted

Seattle NWS seeming a little more confident. 
  

“Lowland snow chances
have increased with 40 to 60% chances for snowfall totals of at least 2 inches across the lowlands 30 to 40% chances for snowfall totals of at least 4 inches across most of the lowlands. Ensembleshave honed in on highest totals mostly from Seattle and Everett southward based on latest tracks of these disturbances but there are many factor at play that could influence this placement. Main
story is confidence is increasing for lowland snow in the Friday-Saturday timeframe”
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SnarkyGoblin Grand Master

SnarkyGoblin

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah the system will straighten and move north like what the GFS is showing. Models will come into better agreement on that by Thursday. BAM! 
 

At least in my dreams…

Still a few days out.  Doesn't take much for precipitation location to change.

It's a bummer that nearly all of the higher res models are showing pretty good agreement with the euro on the low over the weekend.  Gfs cave might be imminent.

And yes, I understand rooting for wetter is essentially rooting for more parts of Oregon to be just rain. Nothing we can do about that.

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