January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

Shift south on Saturday on EPS and control run as well... to be expected at this range.   The mean showed snow to Bellingham last night.  The new 00Z run would indicate there are almost no members left showing snow in Seattle.   The control run looks like the operational. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS mean snowfall from 4am Friday to 4am Monday

 
 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

As rare as 1 sub-freezing high in 7 years?

That is horrible.  I've had at least 14 in that time.

[OysterPrintout]

Just saw huge 2 flashes to the SW must be some transformers blowing. 70/30 rain snow mix still

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is horrible.  I've had at least 14 in that time.

Exactly. This is a bad location for cold temps anymore.

Snow on the other hand? We've had plenty of that since March 2012.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS mean snowfall from 4am Friday to 4am Monday

 
 

How does this compare to the 12z?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gusting to 35mph and pouring rain. Very dynamic system.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS mean snowfall from 4am Friday to 4am Monday

 
 

Interesting difference on the mean for Friday around Portland.    The operational and control don't show snow that day for Portland but the mean does which indicates some members show the initial low like the GFS.   Doesn't seem to matter for Saturday though.

Here is control run for Friday.

[Dillymill217]

Snow/rain mix here near graham. Need heavier precip to turn all snow. 35 degrees.

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How does this compare to the 12z?

About 0.5”-1” for PDX south to Corvallis, but shifted the northern extent south. Here’s the 0z then the 12z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Puget Sound area gets snow with that second cold shot on the ECMWF.

It will trend south. 

 

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2017 will be tough to beat for PDX. That was their coldest January since the 1970s, close to 8 degrees below normal.

For SEA, 1980 was the last truly impressive January, and that was warmer than Jan 2017 in PDX. So much more attainable.

SLE is almost a lock to have their coldest January since 2017. By historical standards SLE has not had an impressive January since 1980. 2017 was the coldest this century, but not as cold as PDX. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

About 0.5”-1” for PDX south to Corvallis, but shifted the northern extent south. Here’s the 0z then the 12z

Looks great here, thanks

[umadbro]

32. Closing in on a couple inches. This event is pretty much done now.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS low locations have really centered on the area between Newport and Coos Bay. Some are as far south as Eureka and some as far north as Seaside. But the bulk go between Newport and Coos Bay.

 

[van city]

NAVGEM looks nice. There is still a chance. 

[The Blob]

No snow here yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been trying to catch up. Ended up with 2” of snow. Temp up to 34 now with winds gusting 35-40mph. Hopefully we can get some more snow showers later tonight, as the airmass should continue to cool. I was happy to avoid a warm nose as we had strong winds during the entire event. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GraphCast holds serve. Maybe slightly south by a bit. Moisture stream pointed towards Central OR. Precipitation shield reaches SW WA.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like the big story tonight is the cold. Not quite sure why people are not more pumped about that. This thing has the potential to put up some big numbers. 

[runninthruda206]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z GraphCast holds serve. Maybe slightly south by a bit. Moisture stream pointed towards Central OR. Precipitation shield reaches SW WA.

 

Pain. 

[theRunner]

Seattle area could be really out of luck unless this low trends north

exciting for Oregon folks tho! 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, van city said:

NAVGEM looks nice. There is still a chance. 

I trust the Navy

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It will trend south. 

 

SLE is almost a lock to have their coldest January since 2017. By historical standards SLE has not had an impressive January since 1980. 2017 was the coldest this century, but not as cold as PDX. 

Impressive is subjective.

2017 was colder at SLE than all but six Januarys since 1950: 1985, 1979, 1980, 1969, 1963, and 1957. And that's with increased UHI.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like the big story tonight is the cold. Not quite sure why people are not more pumped about that. This thing has the potential to put up some big numbers. 

4 out of 5 weenies care WAY more about snow than cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Impressive is subjective.

2017 was colder at SLE than all but six Januarys since 1950: 1985, 1979, 1980, 1969, 1963, and 1957. And that's with increased UHI.

They haven’t had a truly cold January since 1980. Though it’s hard to argue it being one of the better Januaries in the past 30 years. I’d say it was the best January in that area since 1993. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

4 out of 5 weenies care WAY more about snow than cold.

Jesse and I are the 1 out of 5. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like the big story tonight is the cold. Not quite sure why people are not more pumped about that. This thing has the potential to put up some big numbers. 

Because big cold is just a stat without snow. It won't be remembered at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t think Salem has had a high below 27 since 2004. Feel free to face check me there, but they have a chance this weekend, though they probably have a midnight high Saturday. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GC shows more moisture for the middle of next week but I’m not sure if we’ll be cold enough for snow. Looks like an atmospheric river.

 

[OysterPrintout]

Down to 34 can we finally get some stickage with this incoming band

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Because big cold is just a stat without snow. It won't be remembered at all.

I’ll remember it. 

[SnowySeeker50]

35f and rain/snow mix

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Because big cold is just a stat without snow. It won't be remembered at all.

Dec 2009 was a really impressive cold snap. But hardly anyone here remembers it or cares.

[Doinko]

Snowing heavily near the coast range

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Dec 2009 was a really impressive cold snap. But hardly anyone here remembers it or cares.

I was living out of state at the time. I always wish I could have experienced that one. 

[Brennan]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Dec 2009 was a really impressive cold snap. But hardly anyone here remembers it or cares.

I set the hose on mist and left it propped up towards the pear tree at my Dad’s house. We woke up the next morning to the most amazing tree icicle. The entire thing was coated in several inches of ice. I have a picture of it somewhere but I think it was on a low quality flip phone. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was living out of state at the time. I always wish I could have experienced that one. 

Six straight sub-35 highs at PDX. Low of 12. They don't make those every year.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

I’m ready to get hurt again. Though these chances showing up in an El Niño winter still feels incredible. 

 

[Doinko]

33 degrees right now and that band is approaching, maybe I'll see some more snow

[Doinko]

Snowing moderately again