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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Temp drops below freezing in Seattle on the ECMWF by 6 p.m. on Thursday... just slightly faster than 00Z run.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-5024800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

more interesting is that's Libby I think.  technically west of the highest rockies in Glacier.  leads me to think that can bleed down into N ID and E WA thru the trench

Yeah it does look to be colder west of the divide with this shot which is atypical. Reminiscence of Feb 2014.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF.... arctic front snow.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5028400 (3).png

Looks pretty decent here ahead of the front. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Temp drops below freezing in Seattle on the ECMWF by 6 p.m. on Thursday... just slightly faster than 00Z run.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-5024800.png

What time do I hit the freezing mark tomorrow? 
And I am still holding out hope for a little more arctic front juice. Shows me getting about an inch right now it looks like. 

IMG_1726.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MossMan said:

What time do I hit the freezing mark tomorrow? 
And I am still holding out hope for a little more arctic front juice. Shows me getting about an inch right now it looks like. 

IMG_1726.jpeg

Looks like around 1-2 p.m. for you.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF.... arctic front snow.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5028400 (3).png

Hi-res mesoscale models like the HRDPS, 3km NAM, and to a lesser extent the WRF and FV3 hires will be the ones to watch for this as we get closer, imo.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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RaleighHillsRunner Proficient

RaleighHillsRunner

Posted
Posted

Weather station advice needed. Does anyone know or have recommendations for an affordable solution that would allow for switching between two remote locations within the same app/platform?

Looking to have two units one at home another at my FIL’s cabin and be able to easily perform some real-time comparative analysis during interesting events. I’m a total newb at this so input appreciated!

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Friday afternoon... almost exactly the same as 00Z run.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5100400 (1).png

Thinking that is our main window now here. Hopefully some frontogenesis around that low as the airmass advects in. Not looking like much though.

Saturday stuff is clearly going down to the state of Jefferson.

Edited by BLI snowman
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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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Gorgeous drive down. 

A57F8FC9-623F-42E0-A382-7A8B9EFE470B.jpeg

3D7D0221-A1AE-4559-87FF-930D3FF81DFC.jpeg

501025BA-720C-46C3-834A-AAF861783E45.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Thinking that is our main window now here. Hopefully some frontogenesis around that low as the airmass advects in. Not looking like much though.

Saturday stuff is clearly going down to the state of Jefferson.

Yep... way south on Saturday.   GFS has the precip up to Everett at the same time.  😀

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5176000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Friday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5104000 (1).png

Impressive.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

ECMWF is way south of its 00Z run.   Definitely not even attempting to meet the GFS half way.  

00Z run on top... 12Z on bottom.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5168800 (3).png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5168800 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

5 a.m. Saturday... Portland will be too far north per the ECMWF. 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5150800.png

Think of it like this, the gfs says it will pour rain Saturday and it might be dry and sunny. I cant remember that ever happening so close like this. Just insane they are so far apart.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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DareDuck Mentor

DareDuck

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Picked up about 8” of snow in Bend. It was blowing around pretty hard last night so hard to get an exact measure. Beautiful blue skies this morning. 

IMG_4309.jpeg

IMG_4303.jpeg

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hi-res mesoscale models like the HRDPS, 3km NAM, and to a lesser extent the WRF and FV3 hires will be the ones to watch for this as we get closer, imo.

Looking now, some of these are already developing narrow but intense snowfall bands along the front as it moves south. Maybe someone who has access can provide closer snow maps from them as we get closer.

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_37.pngfv3-hires_ref_frzn_nwus_34.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, DareDuck said:

Picked up about 8” of snow in Bend. It was blowing around pretty hard last night so hard to get an exact measure. Beautiful blue skies this morning. 

IMG_4309.jpeg

IMG_4303.jpeg

Love that second pic... I was blinded just looking at it.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is way south of its 00Z run.   Definitely not even attempting to meet the GFS half way.  

00Z run on top... 12Z on bottom.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5168800 (3).png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-5168800 (2).png

Powerful airmass.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Picked up about 8” of snow in Bend. It was blowing around pretty hard last night so hard to get an exact measure. Beautiful blue skies this morning. 

IMG_4309.jpeg

IMG_4303.jpeg

You will go below zero with this! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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