January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous drive down. 

I'm sure you mentioned it earlier, but how much did you get?

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looking now, a some of these are already developing narrow but intense snowfall bands along the front as it moves south. Maybe someone who has access can provide closer snow maps from them as we get closer.

Yeah, I’m sure there’s going to be some interesting stuff with the boundary pushing south tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

How do we reconcile this difference for day 3??  Insane for being the short range now.  

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

One thing it did make a move towards the others with is the 2 low structure with a weaker surface low out ahead of the parent low. But significantly less development than the GFS has.
 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hi-res mesoscale models like the HRDPS, 3km NAM, and to a lesser extent the WRF and FV3 hires will be the ones to watch for this as we get closer, imo.

When do you think we should really start looking closely at those Hi-res models, this evening? 

[LowerGarfield]

26 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

It was not whining.   -- It is what the models are showing, but you might get a surprise. WE ALL might be surprised, and hopefully so. That being said, it is looking dry, and that is the case as of now.  HOPE YOU GET BURIED. It will likely be dry here, and I am cool with that as I already got 4 inches this year. I HOPE YOU GET 12 or more!!! 

Only 4 inches all season? Wow! That's pretty rough for Spokane. (This sounds sarcastic but I promise I'm not).

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice Corvallis snowstorm

 

I just told my brothers in Albany and Sweet Home to get ready.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Saturday... totally sunny from Portland northward.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

One thing it did make a move towards the others with is the 2 low structure with a weaker surface low out ahead of the parent low. But significantly less development than the GFS has.
 

Drops a decent snowstorm for parts of the valley, more than the 00z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure you mentioned it earlier, but how much did you get?

4” total. Some melting around midnight so about 3.5” on the ground. South Falls day use got about an inch at 1300’. A mile down the road at the valley overlook just over 1700’ they had 5-6”.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

When do you think we should really start looking closely at those Hi-res models, this evening? 

Sure, within 36 hours but especially within 24 is when they seem to be the most useful in my experience.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Sunday.... sunny for everyone.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice Corvallis snowstorm

 

Not as far south as the UKMET which is good. Still 3 days out from this event. I’m still thinking in the end the Arctic air will be watered down a bit as we get closer allowing more moisture to make its way further north. I’m betting GFS/EURO solution right now but we’ll see. Gonna be a fun next few days! We might not know what’s gonna happen until a day out.

[RentonHill]

Ya when can we start checking out satellite/real time obs to see if GFS is full of it 

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Drops a decent snowstorm for parts of the valley, more than the 00z

Yeah a pretty good snowstorm, 10:1 puts me at about 7", kuchera would put me at 4"

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I just told my brothers in Albany and Sweet Home to get ready.

Good to be prepared but you never wanna be in the bullseye this far out.

[FrozenBites]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

How do we reconcile this difference for day 3??  Insane for being the short range now.  

 

Pure insanity. I can't recall seeing such a massive difference this close to an event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Saturday... totally sunny from Portland northward.

I like the idea of avoiding the warm nose. Haven’t had a low 20s high since February 2014.

[RentonHill]

GFS really bombs out the Kona low compared to the euro. Is that what’s driving this? Pushes ridge further north

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Saturday... totally sunny from Portland northward.

Looks like we are about to slay both the January and regional Arctic event monkeys.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looking now, some of these are already developing narrow but intense snowfall bands along the front as it moves south. Maybe someone who has access can provide closer snow maps from them as we get closer.

Fingers crossed that heavier band starts a little further north. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

GFS really bombs out the Kona low compared to the euro. Is that what’s driving this? Pushes ridge further north

Not stronger I guess just further north

[LowerGarfield]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks pretty decent here ahead of the front. 

I'm right on the blue border line with the Euro, I actually feel pretty good about that.

All said, I did get my event of over 3 inches so I really shouldn't complain that much for the next few weeks. I'd like more but I feel like I've lost the ability to complain about any rug pull for the weekend.

Also the timing of the snow, if I get it looks like it may be Thur Pm and overnight  (with time to plow) so if I am hoping for a snow day with my son I'm probably out of luck lol.

[Christensen87]

Let's see if Druncle finally caves. 

[OysterPrintout]

Feeling ok about this in PDX. Worst case scenario looks like some flurries and cold weather but lot of room for improvement and wouldn't take much for some Feb 2014 vibes.

[TT-SEA]

Reload coming??

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fingers crossed that heavier band starts a little further north. 

That first frame you shared, I'm right at the start of the letter "L."

[TT-SEA]

High temps Monday... cold air is eroding faster than previous run.     Still sunny with high clouds.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GFS really bombs out the Kona low compared to the euro. Is that what’s driving this? Pushes ridge further north

I don't think so, could be wrong though. At hour 51 they are basically in the same spot. But the GFS develops the system nicely, while the Euro keeps it very weak until it makes final approach toward the coast. The weaker Euro goes SE while the GFS goes ESE from this point.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

NWS point forecast still showing 10" to 20" of snow for my neighborhood through Saturday, really messing with people's expectations in my neighborhood groups. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think even with the euro track PDX has a good shot though areas near the gorge could struggle with dry air. Could be some deformation south metro or Clark county. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think even with the euro track PDX has a good shot though areas near the gorge could struggle with dry air. Could be some deformation south metro or Clark county. 

Usually do good here in those situations. I had 2.5" on 2/25/19 when a lot of the metro didn't have much

[Frontal Snowsquall]

11 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yeah a pretty good snowstorm, 10:1 puts me at about 7", kuchera would put me at 4"

Nice!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

NWS point forecast still showing 10" to 20" of snow for my neighborhood through Saturday, really messing with people's expectations in my neighborhood groups. 

Yeah... that is definitely not happening.   I have seen the same thing on social media.  

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Reload coming??

Ridge looks too far off.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Monday... cold air is eroding faster than previous run.     Still sunny with high clouds.  

Would have helped greatly if we would have had deep snow cover. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Ridge looks too far off.

Yeah... looks like its going to fail on this run. 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Tuesday... ECMWF shows mid level clouds that day and a south wind developing.  

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... looks like its going to fail on this run. 

But might not with future runs! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What did the lows look like Sunday and Monday?