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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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Olive1010 Proficient

Olive1010

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

18z GRAF is further south with the moisture but still makes it to PDX. It’s shows 2.4” of snow and no ice which is good. Look at those east winds! 👀 

IMG_2730.thumb.jpeg.0eea57523e485e056aaa3741ac45e651.jpeg

IMG_2729.jpeg.748785d04cd068aeaa18a41801069ede.jpeg

what link is that from?

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Weather! Atmospheric conditions

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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The 18Z ICON is still way south on Saturday though.   And actually quite a bit south of its 00Z run last night. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_26 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep. going back 4 runs there is a definite north trend.

Not for Saturday though... no trend north over last 4 runs.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

Mother nature fidna be breakin' off some excess tree limbs down here followed by some hornet-killing sub-freezing highs!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... two models now shifting north today.    Tide might be turning again.   And the GFS respect will be off the charts!  

Indeed. Though I'd like to remind people that the GFS was still the most wrong 5-7 days out with this thing.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, van city said:

Someone should go and check on JMA

Doesn't have incremental precip maps... but the total precip loop looks south.  

jma-all-nw-total_precip_inch-1704888000-1705017600-1705147200-10.gif

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Indeed. Though I'd like to remind people that the GFS was still the most wrong 5-7 days out with this thing.

Yeah the blast looks a lot more potent than the GFS showed

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted

Shades of February 2014... kinda 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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MikeInEverett Mentor

MikeInEverett

Posted
Posted

Feel like this is a bit harsh on the GFS considering it was the first to pick up on some of the recent changes. Would be funny if this came back to bite him as unlikely as it is.


2D86A08B-BCDA-4767-9285-7AE4A11E9068.thumb.jpeg.4874a9beb3bf4c372646f9d02ba76538.jpeg

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 18Z ICON looks like its 00Z run last night.  

Also looks pretty decent with moisture accompanying the Arctic front. Doesn't seem to show much accumulation though, for whatever reason.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted
Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Feel like this is a bit harsh on the GFS considering it was the first to pick up on some of the recent changes. Would be funny if this came back to bite him as unlikely as it is.


2D86A08B-BCDA-4767-9285-7AE4A11E9068.thumb.jpeg.4874a9beb3bf4c372646f9d02ba76538.jpeg

He say's was like it already happened. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Feel like this is a bit harsh on the GFS considering it was the first to pick up on some of the recent changes. Would be funny if this came back to bite him as unlikely as it is.


2D86A08B-BCDA-4767-9285-7AE4A11E9068.thumb.jpeg.4874a9beb3bf4c372646f9d02ba76538.jpeg

That is a good way to assure it will happen!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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RentonHill Grand Master

RentonHill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Feel like this is a bit harsh on the GFS considering it was the first to pick up on some of the recent changes. Would be funny if this came back to bite him as unlikely as it is.


2D86A08B-BCDA-4767-9285-7AE4A11E9068.thumb.jpeg.4874a9beb3bf4c372646f9d02ba76538.jpeg

Be a man and tag him next time 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Also looks pretty decent with moisture accompanying the Arctic front. Doesn't seem to show much accumulation though, for whatever reason.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

ICON maps always seem to look broadbrush wet.   Even for normal rain systems at any time of the year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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DDDRWx Enthusiast

DDDRWx

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great post. Couldn’t agree more.

This!  Just this side of 60 and a Clark County lifer… don’t misunderstand me, 20 degrees and a foot of snow followed by beautiful blue skies and lows in the single digits would be unbelievable.  Based on current climate conditions, wasn’t expecting anything close to what is possible.  Take the 25-45 degree negative anomaly FTW.  Need cold for any frozen precipitation, and 99 times out of 100 it is on the other side of the planet/country.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Biggest druncle run of the year starting now??

I bet at it at least stays with the 12Z run solution.   Or trends north. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted
Just now, TT-SEA said:

Biggest druncle run of the year starting now??

I bet at it at least stays with the 12Z run.   Or trends north. 

I think it will go south and then north on the 00z lol

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted

I’m thinking some places could get up to 3” in the puget sound area with the arctic front. KOMO news was talking about how there could be some stationary bands of snow set up and someone could score with that.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

18z RGEM trended north too.

IMG_2732.thumb.png.c087e83fe17172af66f0b009711ecc4c.png

IMG_2733.thumb.png.9001503f85e74cb121147e2cb624ca5b.png

One possibility is that all the models are converging on the ECMWF scenario which would mean eliminating the crazy south runs as well.   Obviously the models have to hone in on one solution soon here.

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