January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS members...

[the_convergence_zone]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was remembering the 2012 ice event... it started raining here when it was 18 degrees.    That is a recipe for disaster.   

I can't remember a 40-degree day (which it should be tomorrow) turning into a major ice event later the same day.   But maybe there is a first for everything!  

At the end of the day the warm front lifts right through Puget Sound and that opens the door for the southerlies to warm things up within a few hours of the onset of precipitation. That’s all there is to it for most places except the usual spots that tend to hang on a bit longer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks warm and wet starting late in the week. 

[Hawksfan2008]

We’re going to have to start taking this seriously if the 12z EURO agrees. People are about to get caught completely off guard. 

 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS members...

Definite improvement from last night, especially up my way. Fingers crossed. 

[Slushy Inch]

EPS chance of significant snow now 0 for me and gfs gives this red herring, of course.

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

We’re going to have to start taking this seriously if the 12z EURO agrees. People are about to get caught completely off guard. 

 

Obviously not going to happen because it’s the GFS but holy hell 1.5 inches of freezing rain would be INSANE 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

At the end of the day the warm front lifts right through Puget Sound and that opens the door for the southerlies to warm things up within a few hours of the onset of precipitation. That’s all there is to it for most places except the usual spots that tend to hang on a bit longer. 

You know the convergence zone rarely lets me down, but you are being a real downer today

We all know the warm up is coming, can we enjoy the possible few hours of possible exciting weather though? 

Edited January 15 by MossMan

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

We’re going to have to start taking this seriously if the 12z EURO agrees. People are about to get caught completely off guard. 

 

Not a map that Tim would like. 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You know the convergence zone rarely lets me down, but you are being a real downer today

We all know the warm up is coming, can we enjoy the possible few hours of possible exciting weather though? 

Hey at least things will be a little more interesting up north! Seems boring for Seattle and it’s a real bummer. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, MossMan said:

Not a map that Tim would like. 

I will say, while the tree damage, fence damage, inability to go anywhere, and losing power as the house dropped to 50 degrees during the last ice storm, there was certainly an excitement/adrenaline rush to it. Wild standing outside and hearing limbs/trees dropping every 10 seconds. Not rooting for it but I do find a way to appreciate all types of weather. 

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty significant jump in snow odds North of Seattle on the GEFS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a low of 18 here before the wind picked up and kept things around 20-21 all night. Still chilly.

Currently a beautiful morning with sun and snow on the ground. 21 degrees.

[Olive1010]

Where can I find the temperature cross-section through the whole atmosphere on weatherbell

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

At the end of the day the warm front lifts right through Puget Sound and that opens the door for the southerlies to warm things up within a few hours of the onset of precipitation. That’s all there is to it for most places except the usual spots that tend to hang on a bit longer. 

[raises hand]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I was shocked when I looked at the gfs. This has high bust potential in both directions .

If the current gfs run verified Seattle north is looking like a large snowfall is in the cards.

I'm getting my plow truck ready today. It's coming.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I really hope this busts. Don’t want to deal with another ice event regardless of the longevity of it. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 17 earlier this morning, currently 22f

[ajreich]

37 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS trended way colder for down here. Ice arrives just before sunset tomorrow and continues through the morning. The 06z GFS had PDX at 41 Wed 10am, now the 12z shows 27 with ice still. The models always are too aggressive with scouring out the cold air down here and it looks like they are getting a better handle of the low level cold air. If there is an east wind, PDX will not thaw out.

[Winterdog]

I am always protected from easterly winds here but any wind from the southern quadrant has an easy pathway to my door so I don't expect any snow at all but I could get some freezing rain for a short time.  As snowless as this event has been for me I must say I enjoyed it . 15.5 degrees and very nice out there,

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was shocked when I looked at the gfs. This has high bust potential in both directions .

If the current gfs run verified Seattle north is looking like a large snowfall is in the cards.

I'm getting my plow truck ready today. It's coming.

Decent chance in your area.

If you held a gun to my head and made me issue a forecast right now, I would go for a marginal event where Hood Canal, Whatcom, and SWBC get wet snow (and maybe ice in the case of the latter two) and most others get slushy rain at best.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a low of 18 here before the wind picked up and kept things around 20-21 all night. Still chilly.

Currently a beautiful morning with sun and snow on the ground. 21 degrees.

Did you see my post earlier about how SLE hadn't had 3 consecutive sub-20 minima in January since 1980. This makes me want to cry for multiple reasons. But it's over now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Decent chance in your area.

If you held a gun to my head and made me issue a forecast right now, I would go for a marginal event where Hood Canal, Whatcom, and SWBC get wet snow (and maybe ice in the case of the latter two) and most others get slushy rain at best.

Could be, freezing rain is very rare so I've been thinking since yesterday it would be just rain or snow,  right now the odds of snow are increasing,  like Tim said to be 40 and then have freezing rain makes no sense but snow does. 

[North_County]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM both just bury SW BC.   

The over-running after-party. Dare to dream.

[Slushy Inch]

Seattle north gets snow because gfs moved a bit south but mainly because the low pressure dies so the southerlies end. Almost looks like an anafront. Hopefully euro moves in this direction.

[ajreich]

Up to 18 today and so pretty! 11/19 yesterday, so we’ve been below 20 since Friday at 5pm; I can’t remember a cold event like this. East wind picked up again today, so plenty of incoming cold air. Maybe a high of 25 today if we’re lucky?

[westcoastexpat]

Liking my odds up here for some snow tomorrow night!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will also add that the gfs solution would probably be snow further south than is shown because of the slack winds. 

 Could end up to be a pretty large event for the canal with a few more tweaks

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Could be, freezing rain is very rare so I've been thinking since yesterday it would be just rain or snow,  right now the odds of snow are increasing,  like Tim said to be 40 and then have freezing rain makes no sense but snow does. 

I typed “maybe ice in the case of the latter two [emphasis added],” where the “latter two” meant Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland (particularly the Fraser Valley). Ice is much more common in this region than it is in yours.

[Slushy Inch]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS members...

The low Dying gives us a chance. It depends where and when.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I typed “maybe ice in the case of the latter two [emphasis added],” where the “latter two” meant Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland (particularly the Fraser Valley). Ice is much more common in this region than it is in yours.

Where are you?

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you see my post earlier about how SLE hadn't had 3 consecutive sub-20 minima in January since 1980. This makes me want to cry for multiple reasons. But it's over now. 

I did Andrew I even hearted it

[Andstorm]

Forecasters still calling for switch over to rain in portland metro by early wednesday morning. If the low peters out that likely won’t happen, but GFS is clearly emerging as the outlier. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Up to 18 today and so pretty! 11/19 yesterday, so we’ve been below 20 since Friday at 5pm; I can’t remember a cold event like this. East wind picked up again today, so plenty of incoming cold air. Maybe a high of 25 today if we’re lucky?

You have a gorgeous view 

[Olive1010]

You guys in Seattle could start out as snow, but looks like that warm tongue comes in

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Where are you?

It’s right under my handle to the left of my posts.

[Snowdome]

Oregon City looking beautiful today

[MikeInEverett]

Biggest Euro run of all time kicking off

[Lars43]

Just had the Ice storm warning issued for tomorrow. Sitting at 21 North of Junction City. Trees definitely don’t need more ice. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

You guys in Seattle could start out as snow, but looks like that warm tongue comes in

This is the hardest thing to forecast in western Washington.  Seattle could get between 0-8 inches of snow. For 8 the low would need to be another 50 miles south though. As it looks now Everett north will get a major snowstorm before the real warming.