January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

My 2nd favorite Portland viral snow video after this legendary gem. Hoping for some 10th anniversary magic!

 

Jeff G was smiling because he was stranded at the studio with Kelley Day!

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So encouraged to see you blessed in this manner. 

Thank you friend. I’ll never take a moderate snowfall for granted again.

[Ziess]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up to 46 at Horse Creek a bit east of here at 3300'. The warm air is up there, how long will it take to make it to the valley floor though?!

@SilverFallsAndrew what is the temp at your place? 

[Dave]

Incoming!

 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only one 50-burger for Seattle?!

EPS has some more!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Ziess said:

@SilverFallsAndrew what is the temp at your place? You’re around 1100’ right? 

1600'. It's 26. Expecting it just keep creeping up until we're 33-34 by about 1-2 hours after the precip starts, that would be what would typically happen in this circumstance. Often with ZR we are low enough we don't get a big dramatic warm up, but we sit above freezing while places a little lower are dealing with the ice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

EPS has some more!

Really gross. Hopefully in a Nina next year we can avoid this kind of thing, 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Incoming!

 

Usually radar coverage is awful down by Eugene. The fact it's showing up so well must mean it's pretty intense down there I would think.

[MossMan]

I thought today was supposed to be warmer…Currently 32.9 with a DP of 24.

I thought we were supposed to be nearing the upper 30’s? 
Tim wishing for spring is causing the opposite effect!! 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this pic on the FACEBOOKS from Springfield, OR. Hope you are hanging in there Tiger!

Ooof. If that happened in Randy’s neighborhood he’d off the grid for a year or more.

[Dave]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Usually radar coverage is awful down by Eugene. The fact it's showing up so well must mean it's pretty intense down there I would think.

I expect virga for a while. I posted this earlier, but a private company is finally going to add some doppler radars to Oregon.

https://www.kezi.com/news/new-company-looks-to-add-doppler-radars-to-oregon-to-fix-the-radar-gap/article_73effdc2-b10d-11ee-b5eb-2b69b0b1a51e.html

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

I thought today was supposed to be warmer…Currently 32.9 with a DP of 24.

I thought we were supposed to be nearing the upper 30’s? 
Tim wishing for spring is causing the opposite effect!! 

I haven't said anything about spring.   But I am willing to deploy some reverse psychology if it will get you some snow!  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Running colder than yesterday at this time with the cloud cover. Currently only 26 after a low of 16 here. Managed to decouple a little last night with clear skies, but it’s pretty crazy that my low temp for this event (13) was in the afternoon on Saturday, and entirely CAA driven.

Edited January 16 by Cascadia_Wx

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS has some more!

Normal high is 49! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Normal high is 49! 

Yep... days are getting longer.   Normal will feel quite mild now.  

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 32.4f, dp 16

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX came annoyingly close to teens again this morning, but in true form for that station barely missed it. Oh well. They really did well with the 21/15 day on Saturday. Coldest day there in decades.

Currently holding between 25 and 27 there, let’s see if they can score another high in the 20s

Edited January 16 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Also, I know that meatyorologist and Mr Nyberg think I am a literal child for liking the GraphCast (xoxo h8rs) and gave me a good scolding last week for having the audacity to mention it, but I just found this actual skill data comparison for it and it blows even the Euro out of the water. I've also seen some literature claiming that GraphCast especially tends to handle extreme events better than the other models, so I think this is very likely the primary model we are going to be using on here in the future. 

In particular, I found it interesting how there were a couple times recently where the GFS or Euro (or both) fell off a cliff, but the GraphCast didn't. Look at the periods around Oct 17th, Nov 20th, Dec 30th, and Jan 4th on this chart for some examples of GraphCast completely outperforming the others.

Anecdotally, GraphCast did seem to have this whole event over the weekend down better than any other model, so there is very likely a new king in town that I will be there for trusting above all the others in future events. At least around the mid range/5 day-ish period. Still a lot of use for the traditional models in the long and short range periods imo.

Poor GFS. Keeps falling behind but trudges on despite its inevitable decommissioning and replacement.

[Dave]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this pic on the FACEBOOKS from Springfield, OR. Hope you are hanging in there Tiger!

Springfield, especially Thurston, got really hard hit compared to Eugene. We had a ton of sleet whereas they mainly got a ton of freezing rain. The roads in both locations are equally as bad.

[the_convergence_zone]

The latest HRRR run now has the precip type as freezing rain this evening across all of Seattle except along the water with 0.1-0.2" of icing expected. 

The ground is still frozen solid. 

How many car wrecks are there going to be tonight? 

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It might not be enough but i have a strong feeling this will roll into the area a bit south than any model shows. Everything is still inching south as we get closer.

Hopefully you’re right.  I could be right on the edge of some ice here. Best snowfall looks a bit north of here now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Dave said:

Springfield, especially Thurston, got really hard hit compared to Eugene. We had a ton of sleet whereas they mainly got a ton of freezing rain. The roads in both locations are equally as bad.

I learned last December that sleet is so much more preferable to freezing rain.   We had sleet for 12 hours straight with no issues at all... then it turned to rain and trees started bending and branches started breaking and the power went off. 

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

If you are on a PC, there is an optional checkbox to notify that you edited the post. I'm not sure it's there on the mobile version.

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I learned last December that sleet is so much more preferable to freezing rain.   We had sleet for 12 hours straight with no issues at all... then it turned to rain and trees started bending and branches started breaking and the power went off. 

Yep. It bounces off the trees just fine. It does end up on the flat ground and can and does cause major road issues, but not power issues.

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Poor GFS. Keeps falling behind but trudges on despite its inevitable decommissioning and replacement.

Decommission? It's been like 15 years since they pushed any updates to the NAM and that thing is still running. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

 

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

Probably the same reason @iFred would downvote a post encouraging people to plant native  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this pic on the FACEBOOKS from Springfield, OR. Hope you are hanging in there Tiger!

Yes. It’s been an absolute nightmare. We have power for now but probly not for long once the ZR starts up again. Hopefully we get the southerly winds to mix us out fast compared to everyone else like usual. One of the few times I’m happy for it. So many structures ruined like our gazebo and we won’t be able to afford one til who knows when.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yes. It’s been an absolute nightmare. We have power for now but probly not for long once the ZR starts up again. Hopefully we get the southerly winds to mix us out fast compared to everyone else like usual. One of the few times I’m happy for it. So many structures ruined like our gazebo and we won’t be able to afford one til who knows when.

It looks a lot like the February 2021 ice storm did up this way. 

[Weiner Warrior]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The latest HRRR run now has the precip type as freezing rain this evening across all of Seattle except along the water with 0.1-0.2" of icing expected. 

The ground is still frozen solid. 

How many car wrecks are there going to be tonight? 

Ooof. I have a company dinner at 6pm downtown. I planned it all and keep telling everyone the roads won't be bad. hope the freezing rain holds off until 9ish tonight 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Ooof. I have a company dinner at 6pm downtown. I planned it all and keep telling everyone the roads won't be bad. hope the freezing rain holds off until 9ish tonight 

Seattle is pretty good about salting arterial streets, I would just be careful on sidewalks and side streets. 

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yes. It’s been an absolute nightmare. We have power for now but probly not for long once the ZR starts up again. Hopefully we get the southerly winds to mix us out fast compared to everyone else like usual. One of the few times I’m happy for it. So many structures ruined like our gazebo and we won’t be able to afford one til who knows when.

That sucks dude. I've never seen an ice storm affect locations so close together so differently. We're probably about 5 miles away from each other tops. There have been a few small trees and limbs down in my neighborhood but nothing really out of the ordinary. At least you have the memories of Feb 2019 to look back on. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Ooof. I have a company dinner at 6pm downtown. I planned it all and keep telling everyone the roads won't be bad. hope the freezing rain holds off until 9ish tonight 

ECMWF shows precip starting around 8 in Seattle.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

58 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Ugh!!!

I have a heater out there along my line right now as my emergency shut off valve is frozen currently, downstream from my fix (which I had put in last time where my pipe bursted 17 years ago) .  I’ll go without water for a bit and make sure everything is thawed before I turn back on. Otherwise I’ve moved onto getting the water damaged stuff out of garage.  Good times.

Hope yours didn’t do any major damage and hang in there

Good luck to you as well, I hope you've got it mitigated and fixed!

Ours is going to be quite expensive, me thinks. There was definitely a leak in the control room because the spray of water took the fire control panel out; the FD finally just turned off the alarm a couple of hours ago so they don't have to come back and check it every time. And as the fire suppression system is totally off, it means that we get to do hourly "fire watch" checks of the building. Other than that, we don't know if any of the other pipes have been affected... which worries me greatly given we don't know when we can get someone in to check. Oh, and the HOA president is out of town so it's me and couple of other folks trying to bodge together a fix. LOL good thing I have an excellent homeowners policy with USAA. 

All this hassle and no snow to show for it. Not sure I want mother nature to throw us the bone of an ice storm at this point. BOO. 

[ShawniganLake]

Temp up to 36F here.  Milder this afternoon. 

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Ooof. I have a company dinner at 6pm downtown. I planned it all and keep telling everyone the roads won't be bad. hope the freezing rain holds off until 9ish tonight 

High-Res WRF shows precip starting in Seattle at 9 and Euro closer to 8.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

That sucks dude. I've never seen an ice storm affect locations so close together so differently. We're probably about 5 miles away from each other tops. There have been a few small trees and limbs down in my neighborhood but nothing really out of the ordinary. At least you have the memories of Feb 2019 to look back on. 

Yeah the SE valley got screwed with this bigtime. Really hoping we can make up for this with a snowstorm at some point. 
 

Feels like it’s been a long time since we’ve had a proper -10c 850s airmass hit here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really gross. Hopefully in a Nina next year we can avoid this kind of thing, 

Conceivable that Eugene might even get blessed with a 60-burger soon.

[Winterdog]

Wintry looking mole hills melting rapidly in 34 degree sunshine

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Wintry looking mole hills melting rapidly in 34 degree sunshine

Needle ice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Needle_ice