January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You have a little elevation don't you? How did you do last February/March?

I’m only at 500’ and got a few inches of slush. But anyone 800’ and up got double Atleast during that time 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

RGEm is my new favorite model

Amazingly... it has been trending a little north with lower snow amounts each run (18Z continues this trend) and still ends up like this.   

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

Who's gonna tell him?

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

For the PNW, the most impressive aspect of this Arctic event has undoubtedly been the high temps. A few examples.

• BLI's high of 10 on 1/12 was their coldest January high temp on record, and their second coldest ever after the 9 seen in Dec 1968
• SEA's high of 22 was their coldest high since Dec 1990, and their coldest January high since 1969
• SLE's high of 23 was their coldest since Dec 1998, and their coldest in January since 1979
• Omak's high of 1 was their coldest since January 1969

 

The lows were equally impressive for some areas. I made a post about this in the Mountain West topic: https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/page/129/#comments

Some highlights...

• Great Falls, MT hit -37 (tied their all-time coldest January temp from 1969, only colder temps on record are Dec 1983 and Dec 1968)
• Bozeman hit -45 (coldest January temp since 1957, tied with Dec 2022 as second coldest temp on record after Jan 1957 and Dec 1983)
• Havre, MT hit -44 (coldest January temperature since 1969)
• Gillette, WY hit -35 (coldest January temp since 1930)
• Greeley, CO hit -29 (coldest January temp since 1962)
• Pullman, WA hit -21 (coldest January temp since 1982, on par with what they saw in 1950 and 1957)
• Mazama, WA hit -29 (second coldest January temp on record, after January 1969)
• Walla Walla: -14 (coldest January temp since 1957)
• Bend: -6 (coldest January temp since 1980)

 

[Dave]

Light ZR now. 27 degrees. It is dead calm. This cold won't scour out very quickly without some mixing from up above. I'm a bit concerned.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

The summer of 2019 was pretty active and thinking back, a lot of our Nino-to-Nina summers have had some pretty fun light shows and bouts of active weather to enjoy.

That said, still feeling pretty great about end-of-month and February for our next shot.

Summer 2019 was technically a 2nd year niño summer (uncommon but they have a unique character to them).

Niño-to-Niña summers are the absolute worst. I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable or interesting about them, but that’s just me. Especially ones with descending westerly shear (which this year will have).

I’m not ready to jump on the Niña bandwagon yet. But if that is the route we’re taking..just please no? I’m not ready.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS shifted a little north.   I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The lows were equally impressive for some areas. I made a post about this in the Mountain West topic: https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/page/129/#comments

Some highlights...

• Great Falls, MT hit -37 (tied their all-time coldest January temp from 1969, only colder temps on record are Dec 1983 and Dec 1968)
• Bozeman hit -45 (coldest January temp since 1957, tied with Dec 2022 as second coldest temp on record after Jan 1957 and Dec 1983)
• Havre, MT hit -44 (coldest January temperature since 1969)
• Gillette, WY hit -35 (coldest January temp since 1930)
• Greeley, CO hit -29 (coldest January temp since 1962)
• Pullman, WA hit -21 (coldest January temp since 1982, on par with what they saw in 1950 and 1957)
• Mazama, WA hit -29 (second coldest January temp on record, after January 1969)
• Walla Walla: -14 (coldest January temp since 1957)
• Bend: -6 (coldest January temp since 1980)

 

The station a few miles south of my cabin hit -36! cabin was -29.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Summer 2019 was technically a 2nd year niño summer (uncommon but they have a unique character to them).

Niño-to-Niña summers are the absolute worst. I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable or interesting about them, but that’s just me. Especially ones with descending westerly shear (which this year will have).

I’m not ready to jump on the Niña bandwagon yet. But if that is the route we’re taking..just please no? I’m not ready.

2010 was one of the last truly nice summers we had around here. Strong Nino to Nina transition. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Amazingly... it has been trending a little north with lower snow amounts each run (18Z continues this trend) and still ends up like this.   

It will wobble south by 10 miles and I will be in the Pepto after a bunch of freezing rain!! Let’s do this! Let’s make this event better than 2009 or 2014 or whatever lame dry blast there has been 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS shifted a little north.   I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind.

Thursday night might end up messy also. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS shifted a little north.   I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind.

Thanks for ruining my day Tim. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

My 2nd favorite Portland viral snow video after this legendary gem. Hoping for some 10th anniversary magic!

 

I lowkey hope this couple is on this forum, lurking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS shifted a little north.   I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind.

The good news is those ZR totals for the WV are not incredibly damaging either. Other than they will be piling on existing ZR in some areas. You can see the dry area eating into the precip shield as it approaches SLE. Not a great sign for low levels mixing out quickly, but on the other hand less ice is probably better. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2010 was one of the last truly nice summers we had around here. Strong Nino to Nina transition. 

I loved that summer so much. Still can remember the late night marine pushes and lots of evening temps in the upper 50s before midnight in July.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thursday night might end up messy also. 

Not buying that... ECMWF is not even close on Thursday 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Awesome looking sky to the southwest. love the contrast of dark clouds with snow on ground 

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thanks for ruining my day Tim. 

You're supposed to put your plow blade on after the snow has already fallen. It's pretty much your fault.

[Tanis Leach]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm looking at @Deweydog and @BLI snowman for this one. What would a couple historical comps be for this stretch? This reminds me quite a bit of 2004, but on the other end the temps west of the Cascades have been so impressive. Some kind of hybrid between 2004 and 1968? 

A hybrid between the 2 is accurate. 1968 had more time for the cold to get established, especially in the middle to upper atmosphere? which was enough to keep Portland in snow, plus the airmass appeared to be stronger for west of the rockies. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

Incoming!

 

 

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Usually radar coverage is awful down by Eugene. The fact it's showing up so well must mean it's pretty intense down there I would think.

Leading edge of moisture is looking pretty intense. Just looked at the ODOT cameras and things are rapidly deteriorating down there.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thanks for ruining my day Tim. 

Did you see the RGEM map I posted??   

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not buying that... ECMWF is not even close on Thursday 

We cannot buy any excitement this winter. I am still holding hope that February will bring a nice to epic event that actual flows some frozen moisture over us this time. What a terrible outcome from this lovely cold air mass we have had…A complete waste. 

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

PAE doesn't?

Nope, and unfortunately Everett is a really tricky spot for long term snowfall history. The existing co-op station there in town dates back to the late 1800s but has a really spotty and inaccurate record when it comes to snow. In fact, a lot of the PSCZ microclimate isn't well reflected by any official station's records around there. Though there is a long term station in Monroe that's at least a little better than Everett. 

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Did you see the RGEM map I posted??   

I’m in a bad mood (like Jim Nov 2006 bad mood) now and there is no going back. Was going to pull the plow up to the front of the garage but there really is no need now.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Summer 2019 was technically a 2nd year niño summer (uncommon but they have a unique character to them).

Niño-to-Niña summers are the absolute worst. I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable or interesting about them, but that’s just me. Especially ones with descending westerly shear (which this year will have).

I’m not ready to jump on the Niña bandwagon yet. But if that is the route we’re taking..just please no? I’m not ready.

Last five: 2016, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1998.

Seem like a pretty mixed bag overall, though I can see why you haven't enjoyed most of them. Second or third year Ninas tend to be the worst (hottest) here.

[Phil]

I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening).

Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX holding at 26 on the hour.

26 here as well. Temperatures should peak for the day in the next hour or so.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening).

Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet.

Lol we just had a historic blast Phillip. You said it wasn’t coming and it came so I don’t believe you. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening).

Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet.

This actually makes me feel better since you were so epically wrong about January here!

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening).

Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet.

Already looks like that pattern is establishing by day 7.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Amazingly... it has been trending a little north with lower snow amounts each run (18Z continues this trend) and still ends up like this.   

Looks like a good snowstorm for Vancouver BC. I saw they were calling for 10-20cm snow in their Metro area. Which is around 4”-8”.

[TacomaWx]

Looking like another sub 40 day here. 35 degrees at 2pm. Will be interesting to see how long the cold air holds out here at the surface. It’s definitely not going to snow here at all with this. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We cannot buy any excitement this winter. I am still holding hope that February will bring a nice to epic event that actual flows some frozen moisture over us this time. What a terrible outcome from this lovely cold air mass we have had…A complete waste. 

If i was you i would be excited for tonight, you have a better chance than me. My chance will be Thursday evening. Maybe some tonight.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX holding at 26 on the hour.

26 here as well. Temperatures should peak for the day in the next hour or so.

I wonder if the freezing rain coming will keep our snowpack in place for longer. It's been a pretty great stretch with snow on the ground.

[Phishy Wx]

40 minutes ago, iFred said:

The summer of 2019 was pretty active and thinking back, a lot of our Nino-to-Nina summers have had some pretty fun light shows and bouts of active weather to enjoy.

That said, still feeling pretty great about end-of-month and February for our next shot.

Graupel season gunna be LIT

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m in a bad mood (like Jim Nov 2006 bad mood) now and there is no going back. Was going to pull the plow up to the front of the garage but there really is no need now.

You are not the only one. Everyone around us is getting blasted with snow and ice. This might be my least favorite event in years. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Looking like another sub 40 day here. 35 degrees at 2pm. Will be interesting to see how long the cold air holds out here at the surface. It’s definitely not going to snow here at all with this. 

With offshore i bet the cold will hold on well. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening).

Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I loved that summer so much. Still can remember the late night marine pushes and lots of evening temps in the upper 50s before midnight in July.

It almost made Tim leave!

[Lars43]

12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Leading edge of moisture is looking pretty intense. Just looked at the ODOT cameras and things are rapidly deteriorating down there.

Sitting at 24, rain has started. It’s an absolute glacier.