January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[fubario]

16 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux?

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

It's possible but there have been many La Niña events that did not feature an arctic outbreak in the PNW.

Yes, but context is everything.  These blocky type regimes come in clusters of years.  Sometimes many consecutive years.  Besides that strong Nino to Nina transitions have a very good history.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty much always the case by February!    I think February is going to end up warm in the overall this year... all of spring actually.

I respectfully hope this does not happen, but I agree. Except for February. That month has some voodoo wizard magic keeping it chilly, and I suspect that it will end up quite similar to this last January, with a mid-month cool spell pulling in clutch for a -0.5F to -2F anomaly.

The Euro and the Canadian are trigger happy for a sneaky backdoor event early-mid month in a similar fashion to how Phil described things would have to go to make it work. Roided -NAO, brief migration/retrogression of that -NAO into AK with a fleeting -PNA high squeezing some paltry pseudo-Arctic air into SW BC and the interior west... Enough to cool things off and make it interesting.

[Willamette Weenie]

I'm a self diagnosed weenie here... but I'll happily take a nice snowfall in Feb... no ice, just real snow. Give me... hmmm, I dont know, 4" of powder sounds good. Thats enough to really get out there and have some fun without significant long term travel impacts. 

THEN we can transition to spring.

I don't think it's too much to ask. 

[SpaceRace22]

7 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't think those extreme totals are actually that unusual for Vancouver Island. For example Tofino, on the west coast, averages 50 cm (almost 20") of rain in January. The euro is showing 15-20" for those locations which is certainly wet and would cause some flooding, but I don't think it would be apocalyptic. Some of the mountains on Vancouver Island pick up more than 500" of rain a year including more than 80" a month during their wettest months so once again while 30" is wet it's not unheard of. Now those totals with a snowpack in the coast range north of Vancouver could cause larger problems, but I'm less familiar with how atmospheric rivers impact that area.

Also the GEM always significantly overdoes precipitation so I would not take any totals it spits out at face value.

Yeah, I know the absolute amount falling over the 10 day period isn't all that unusual, but the time period it falls in is. If 20-30" fell within a 2-3 day period, that would be pretty gnarly and would definitely cause some major flooding regardless.

The bigger risk would probably actually be for more inland parts of the BC mainland though, which tends to get railed pretty good by atmospheric rivers like this since it's the one setup where they don't get rain shadowed super heavily as the precip blasts in from the SW. The threshold for what causes flooding there is way lower.

Anyway, didn't mean to make it seem like I thought this is going to be a thousand year flood that wipes BC off the map. Just that right now the models are a bit concerning is all. There's *potential* for something significant, but it's far from world ending and far from a certainty.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I respectfully hope this does not happen, but I agree. Except for February. That month has some voodoo wizard magic keeping it chilly, and I suspect that it will end up quite similar to this last January, with a mid-month cool spell pulling in clutch for a -0.5F to -2F anomaly.

The Euro and the Canadian are trigger happy for a sneaky backdoor event early-mid month in a similar fashion to how Phil described things would have to go to make it work. Roided -NAO, brief migration/retrogression of that -NAO into AK with a fleeting -PNA high squeezing some paltry pseudo-Arctic air into SW BC and the interior west... Enough to cool things off and make it interesting.

No doubt the signal is strong for cold in early Feb.  Snow is looking more likely too.  The 12z EPS doubled vs the 0z to over an inch for SEA.

[SpaceRace22]

Ahh, nice to see the Euro Ensembles finally showing some snow potential in Februa- HEY WAIT A MINUTE 

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux?

My wife’s 2014 Subaru Outback. Would come with two brand new headlights! 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the signal is strong for cold in early Feb.  Snow is looking more likely too.  The 12z EPS doubled vs the 0z to over an inch for SEA.

i think cool but not cold... and snow is not real likely.    This a Nino-like set up with the focus of the cold air into the SW.  

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My wife’s 2014 Subaru Outback. Would come with two brand new headlights! 

Changing the headlights on this car is a miserable task. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

i think cool but not cold... and snow is not real likely.    This a Nino-like set up with the focus of the cold air into the SW.  

 

Looks cold enough for snow IMBY

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z looks juicy after 2/01

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I would do the same to not have any day with a high below 65 in the summer.     Might even pay double that amount to have every day between 75-82.  

Didn’t you live in San Diego where that’s more or less climo?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports!

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS is a definite move towards the Euro/CMC camp D8+

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Changing the headlights on this car is a miserable task. 

Truly is! However I am getting quicker and more efficient with it now that I have done it a few times. 

[SpaceRace22]

GraphCast is looking pretty nice at hr 240, so this is as good as LOCKED IN. (1v1 me, h8rs)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Chilly

[snow_wizard]

What is with these stupid temperatures today?  Some places are in the mid 50s with normal 850s.  Thankfully I have just a tiny bit of east wind here keeping the warm air to the west.  49/40 for the day s far.

I guess the only to say about the final average temps for the month is at least they will be lower than most recent Januaries.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Now that's what I call  a step in the right direction.

[snow_wizard]

The models are in good agreement that we shut off the Pacific influence for a while in Feb.  Should be a nice period of cold mins and maxes just a bit below normal.  Looks pretty solid on the cool side.

[BLI snowman]

The theory that our January streak ending means the same for February is about to get a semi-serious test!

[AlTahoe]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are in good agreement that we shut off the Pacific influence for a while in Feb.  Should be a nice period of cold mins and maxes just a bit below normal.  Looks pretty solid on the cool side.

But I was told there would be a raging STJ with tons of rain down this way headed into Feb? Lol I knew it wasn't going to rain and I am looking forward to a colder pattern. At least Heavenly can fire up the snow guns again. 

[MossMan]

I’m sure Phil will be with us shortly to set everyone straight once he is done on the roof installing his new anemometer. 

[Doinko]

Pouring rain right now

[Doinko]

Just heard a bunch of rumbles or thunder, pouring like crazy right now

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Pouring rain right now

Looks like some lightning now in your area.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some intense thunderstorms coming through  looks like some rotation in them too

[Ken in Wood Village]

I just noticed a storm coming my way. Looks like it's intensifying too

[Doinko]

That was crazy intense, suddenly a ton of water on the roads after that downpour. Didn't see any lightning but I did hear a couple rumbles of thunder and it looks like some lightning strikes really close by.

[Meatyorologist]

24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m sure Phil will be with us shortly to set everyone straight once he is done on the roof installing his new anemometer. 

owowowowowowww!!!!!! i hate this gif!!

[Omegaraptor]

High of 57 in Corvallis with sunshine. Doesn’t feel like winter.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

High of 57 in Corvallis with sunshine. Doesn’t feel like winter.

its not anymore

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Didn’t you live in San Diego where that’s more or less climo?

Summer right in San Diego was often gloomier and cooler than here.   Of course go 10 miles inland and it becomes an inferno.   Summer here is so much nicer with all the lakes and rivers and lush green landscape.   There it's just the ocean and generally brown.    

I prefer 75-82 here in the summer but don't want that year round.   Some variety is nice.   

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer right in San Diego was often gloomier and cooler than here.   Of course go 10 miles inland and it becomes an inferno.   Summer here is so much nicer with all the lakes and rivers and lush green landscape.   There it's just the ocean and generally brown.    

I prefer 75-82 here in the summer but don't want that year round.   Some variety is nice.   

the June Gloom, had in Santa Cruz and in Long Beach, many a summer day in Santa Cruz in the 50s/low 60s with fog

[T-Town]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer right in San Diego was often gloomier and cooler than here.   Of course go 10 miles inland and it becomes an inferno.   Summer here is so much nicer with all the lakes and rivers and lush green landscape.   There it's just the ocean and generally brown.    

I prefer 75-82 here in the summer but don't want that year round.   Some variety is nice.   

Yeah I’ve been there for conferences a few times and it definitely cools off fast in the evenings. 

[T-Town]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

the June Gloom, had in Santa Cruz and in Long Beach, many a summer day in Santa Cruz in the 50s/low 60s with fog

The one time I was in Santa Cruz was in mid October and it was sunny and 80 degrees. Pretty nice. We had lunch at a place by the pier and two homeless guys got in a fistfight while we were eating. Good memories. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The one time I was in Santa Cruz was in mid October and it was sunny and 80 degrees. Pretty nice. We had lunch at a place by the pier and two homeless guys got in a fistfight while we were eating. Good memories. 

September and October are the best months along the central CA coast.