February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ridge merger by the Aleutians! Let’s see where the super polar lobe ends up. Oo swing and miss.

Quite the temperature reversal up in Alaska from last week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem running a +2.4 departure on the month. PDX +3.7. Kind of counters the "this is a super unusual Nino February" narrative. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February blessings continue for California on this GFS run. Tulare Lake is BACK.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem running a +2.4 departure on the month. PDX +3.7. Kind of counters the "this is a super unusual Nino February" narrative. 

Thank you Amdeew I was making the same point yesterday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Even SEA is running a +1.6, Olympia is +2.7, +1.3 for BLI. I think Jim is just looking for something to be excited about, bless his heart. Although to be fair if something like last night’s Euro or GEM came to pass it would be pretty fun. We’d at least have a shot at a below average month.

I remember a similar setup in February 2010 when a mild and ridgy period was beefy interrupted with cold air brushing us to the east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even SEA is running a +1.6, Olympia is +2.7, +1.3 for BLI. I think Jim is just looking for something to be excited about, bless his heart. Although to be fair if something like last night’s Euro or GEM came to pass it would be pretty fun. We’d at least have a shot at a below average month.

I remember a similar setup in February 2010 when a mild and ridgy period was beefy interrupted with cold air brushing us to the east.

Yeah, it's not a February 1991 or 2016 torch fest at this point, but it's been consistently mild. Though the frosty mornings last weekend were nice. A light frost and a low of 32 here this morning. Our average low for the date is 31.

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem running a +2.4 departure on the month. PDX +3.7. Kind of counters the "this is a super unusual Nino February" narrative. 

Victoria, Abbotsford and Vancouver are running between +2.4 and +3.2F, so the warmth is quite uniform. 

[westcoastexpat]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even SEA is running a +1.6, Olympia is +2.7, +1.3 for BLI. I think Jim is just looking for something to be excited about, bless his heart. Although to be fair if something like last night’s Euro or GEM came to pass it would be pretty fun. We’d at least have a shot at a below average month.

I remember a similar setup in February 2010 when a mild and ridgy period was beefy interrupted with cold air brushing us to the east.

Agreed. Jim's posts have been very confusing.

It's been warmer than usual. We're seeing daffodils already up here.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even SEA is running a +1.6, Olympia is +2.7, +1.3 for BLI. I think Jim is just looking for something to be excited about, bless his heart. Although to be fair if something like last night’s Euro or GEM came to pass it would be pretty fun. We’d at least have a shot at a below average month.

I remember a similar setup in February 2010 when a mild and ridgy period was beefy interrupted with cold air brushing us to the east.

Not too unusual for Jim to get hyped up about seasonably chilly weather. Although there is a bit of potential for it to be a little more than seasonably chilly with some of the model runs like you said.

 In the end I don’t think it’ll be that interesting to most of us but who knows…maybe we could get something similar to what we saw in February 2022 which was actually a decent cold spell. 

[TacomaWx]

Definitely has been a snooze fest February here so far. We still haven’t been below freezing since 1/16. Low of 33 this morning. Dry too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice morning.

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem running a +2.4 departure on the month. PDX +3.7. Kind of counters the "this is a super unusual Nino February" narrative. 

Its the thrill of the chase.   It can be hard to fairly assess a month (or a winter season) in the middle of it when you are model watching and seeing all kinds of crazy scenarios.  Things become more clear when the emotion is gone and there is some distance.    Its human nature.  

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not too unusual for Jim to get hyped up about seasonably chilly weather. Although there is a bit of potential for it to be a little more than seasonably chilly with some of the model runs like you said.

 In the end I don’t think it’ll be that interesting to most of us but who knows…maybe we could get something similar to what we saw in February 2022 which was actually a decent cold spell. 

If something like the 0z euro verified the Puget sound area would probably end up with sunny afternoons and highs in the low to mid 40s.  With the easterly flow there would be very little help with low level cold from the Fraser outflow.  Dewpoints would be very low, so nights would get pretty chilly in wind sheltered areas.  Some pleasant late winter weather but that’s not going to get the page count up on the forum. 

[TacomaWx]

ALERT

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

If something like the 0z euro verified the Puget sound area would probably end up with sunny afternoons and highs in the low to mid 40s.  With the easterly flow there would be very little help with low level cold from the Fraser outflow.  Dewpoints would be very low, so nights would get pretty chilly in wind sheltered areas.  Some pleasant late winter weather but that’s not going to get the page count up on the forum. 

But it’s a -10 departure! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

ALERT

I’m hoping this year will break the hot summer curse but I’ve hoped for that every year lately.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

But it’s a -10 departure! 

Some people were sure blowing this place up with excitement about the torching. That was pretty boring weather at face value as well.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m hoping this year will break the hot summer curse but I’ve hoped for that every year lately.

We been talking about that for a long time…but I still really think that something like 2019 is the best we can do nowadays. We did just get a big Arctic blast that we weren’t sure we would see again…but the hot summers I’m thinking are here to stay. 

[MossMan]

It’s going to snow! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We been talking about that for a long time…but I still really think that something like 2019 is the best we can do nowadays. We did just get a big Arctic blast that we weren’t sure we would see again…but the hot summers I’m thinking are here to stay. 

I think something will shift at some point, for at least a couple years, even with the long term background warming continuing. Hot summers continuing forever sounds kind of fantastical. Not really how climate change usually works.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, Ray said:

Low of 31 when I woke up at 4am this morning.  Now up to 33.  Looks like it will be a decent day fr the drive to Bellingham to visit my daughter.

Filtered sun and chilly up here, but should be a nice day

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think something will shift at some point, for at least a couple years, even with the long term background warming continuing. Hot summers continuing forever sounds kind of fantastical. Not really how climate change usually works.

Maybe not every year is a record breaker in the coming years…but summers like we had in the 20th century or even 2011 seem almost unrealistic nowadays. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Partly cloudy with a low of 37 here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Maybe not every year is a record breaker in the coming years…but summers like we had in the 20th century or even 2011 seem almost unrealistic nowadays. 

Hard tellin not knowin!

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to snow! 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 2019 might be the best we can do in February, but it’s not the best we can do. If we had that kind of persistent cold pattern in December or January it would have been colder. If the pattern from mid-February through early April last year had set up in mid-December and gone through early February it would have been an all time stretch too. 

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

One of the most insane cold onshore flow setups.

Unusual to see my area torching while you coastal folks are in the freezer. Of course that's normal from May-September.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some people were sure blowing this place up with excitement about the torching. That was pretty boring weather at face value as well.

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Low of 11, 24 now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2011 really was not that long ago… I’m not predicting a cool summer by any means, but saying we can’t have one seems a bit dramatic. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Low of 11, 24 now.

Why would temps like that be exciting. So uncomfortable. Weather should be about maximum comfort. I only know a few people who keep it at 11F inside their house.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Two rules of thumb in recent years:

1. It is unwise to bet against snow in February.
2. It is unwise to bet against a torchy summer.

That's why my wife asked me why I keep planning trips in February. Hard to argue against a school calendar that gives 5 days (including weekends). We ordered rain boots for my7 year old and sent them to CA since we have snow boots but not rain. EIther way CA will be wet!

I was looking at the newest Canadian for CA and wow, if that verified, they would be slammed for several days of rain. Maybe snow for @AlTahoe although the latest GFS is better for us and for him if he wants snow.

Selfishly I want snow mid week here with a break so I can drive to Spokane late morning on Fri and clear on Tuesday so I can go home. Hoping that big snowstorm in the clown range (2 weekends from now) verifies.

 

[LowerGarfield]

After the Euro releases, can someone post a snow map for OR and WA?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some people were sure blowing this place up with excitement about the torching. That was pretty boring weather at face value as well.

Incorrect. It was a top tier torch.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

After the Euro releases, can someone post a snow map for OR and WA?

You can look for free on Pivotal. 
 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021000&fh=18&r=us_nw&dpdt=&mc=

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yesterday morning was the frosty one here. No frost this morning. Too cloudy overnight.

[Front Ranger]

39 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We been talking about that for a long time…but I still really think that something like 2019 is the best we can do nowadays. We did just get a big Arctic blast that we weren’t sure we would see again…but the hot summers I’m thinking are here to stay. 

You'll see something cooler than 2019 again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

End of the GFS was really nice. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

End of the GFS was really nice. 

I thought you’d like it.  A godsend for the mountains. 

[Front Ranger]

Nice to at least see some blocking showing up in the believable range again.