February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.

Honestly, it never really looked that interesting down here. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.

But did you see the latest PNA forecast from the rock solid GFS? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

But did you see the latest PNA forecast from the rock solid GFS? 

That's in the extended range though. He's talking about this week. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly, it never really looked that interesting down here. 

That is true.

Just an amazing change on the 850s up here though.  Horrible bust for the ECMWF models on the way it handled the Pacific energy breaking through on previous runs.  Still some below temp being shown this week, but very watered down from earlier runs.  At least it appears later in the month will get more interesting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is true.

Just an amazing change on the 850s up here though.  Horrible bust for the ECMWF models on the way it handled the Pacific energy breaking through on previous runs.  Still some below temp being shown this week, but very watered down from earlier runs.  At least it appears later in the month will get more interesting. 

Should end up solidly above average. 

[TT-SEA]

The PV is totally gone in a couple weeks per the GFS.    Earliest final warming ever?

 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

But did you see the latest PNA forecast from the rock solid GFS? 

Late month looks interesting alright.  Looks like the Nino might lose it's grip entirely.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.

Um everything just moderated a bit which happens every time. We went from 35 degree phantom snow to 38 degree rain.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The PV is totally gone in a couple weeks per the GFS.    Earliest final warming ever?

 

Very possible.  The ECMWF shows the PV won't be coming back.  It will be interesting to see how late Feb / early March ply out for weather.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Late month looks interesting alright.  Looks like the Nino might lose it's grip entirely.  

That is not how it works Jim.   You are seriously rushing things.    It takes a long time for the patterns to adjust to changing ENSO conditions.    We can have a period of cool zonal flow with a Nino.   It doesn't mean we are in full fledged Nina already.   

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Um everything just moderated a bit which happens every time. We went from 35 degree phantom snow to 38 degree rain.

Up here it changed a lot from yesterday's runs.  A lot of models were showing some pretty legit cold here this week.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's in the extended range though. He's talking about this week. 

Correct, he should be looking down the road, not about the nothing burger that is this week! 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is not how it works Jim.   You are seriously rushing things.    It takes a long time for the patterns to adjust to changing ENSO conditions.    We can have a period of cool zonal flow with a Nino.   It doesn't mean we are in full fledged Nina already.   

We'll see.  Just saying that look late month being shown even on the EPS is very un-Nino like.  That might be it.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Correct, he should be looking down the road, not about the nothing burger that is this week! 

Just yesterday we were getting numerous runs showing lowland snow for Western WA.  Obviously this week has turned into a nothing burger very suddenly.  Might still salvage some below normal temps though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.

To be honest I never really noticed anything to get that excited about, explains my absence lately.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is not how it works Jim.   You are seriously rushing things.    It takes a long time for the patterns to adjust to changing ENSO conditions.    We can have a period of cool zonal flow with a Nino.   It doesn't mean we are in full fledged Nina already.   

Yeah, ENSO 3.4 region is still like +1.7C. We won't be into neutral conditions until late spring/early summer. 

[TacomaWx]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm sure there are places near you that meet this criteria. We average 35-40" here, I'm sure Tim's area averages that or a bit more at a lower elevation. 

Yeah, I wouldn’t mind being neighbors with Tim-Othy….but probably a bit out of my price range. I am going to be trying to buy my first house next year. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 12z does show a little more snow than the 06z, the 00z from lastnight was never going to happen.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Is winter back on? 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  Just saying that look late month being shown even on the EPS is very un-Nino like.  That might be it.

Or maybe its just transitory troughy period.   If a Nina actually happens it might take until late next fall or early winter to see a true Nina pattern developing.    And there is probably a decent chance next winter ends up closer to neutral than a moderate to strong Nina.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, I wouldn’t mind being neighbors with Tim-Othy….but probably a bit out of my price range. I am going to be trying to buy my first house next year. 

You would be a great neighbor Kur-TIS!

[snow_wizard]

Very good chance this month will not end up being anything like strong Nino climo.  Here are maps of this month so far vs the normal for the entire month.  I do know this stuff pretty well.  I think people forget that.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This one is the best lot of the 6 IMO. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Barry-L-Winters-Hill-Rd-SE-Silverton-OR-97381/2053046284_zpid/

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, I wouldn’t mind being neighbors with Tim-Othy….but probably a bit out of my price range. I am going to be trying to buy my first house next year. 

I pd 64k for my first house in 1995. Wow times have changed. My mortgage was 622 a month lol. I got lucky, I pd 164 for my current place in 2004 and we only did a small refi in 2006 and now the value is 725 . Both places first place I told agent house needs to be 500ft or more, second place was 600ft or more and we scored both times lol. Good luck on the house man. Move out here we can do some crazy stuff!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

To be honest I never really noticed anything to get that excited about, explains my absence lately.  

You must have missed the numerous model runs that were showing some pretty decent cold and lowland snow.  Not sure why everyone is doubting me this morning.

For example....yesterday the ECMWF showed a 39/24 day for SEA.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This one is the best lot of the 6 IMO. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Barry-L-Winters-Hill-Rd-SE-Silverton-OR-97381/2053046284_zpid/

Elevation?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You must have missed the numerous model runs that were showing some pretty decent cold and lowland snow.  Not sure why everyone is doubting me this morning.

For example....yesterday the ECMWF showed a 39/24 day for SEA.

I'm not doubting you at all I'm just saying I never saw this as anything big or special just a couple days below normal and a chance of snow, the chance of snow is still there as is the below normal.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You must have missed the numerous model runs that were showing some pretty decent cold and lowland snow.  Not sure why everyone is doubting me this morning.

For example....yesterday the ECMWF showed a 39/24 day for SEA.

I think people assumed it would get watered down.   

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I pd 64k for my first house in 1995. Wow times have changed. My mortgage was 622 a month lol. I got lucky, I pd 164 for my current place in 2004 and we only did a small refi in 2006 and now the value is 725 . Both places first place I told agent house needs to be 500ft or more, second place was 600ft or more and we scored both times lol. Good luck on the house man. Move out here we can do some crazy stuff!

I wouldn’t mind living out that way either…but with my current job it makes much more sense commute wise to stay on this side of the sound. I’d like to move out towards the EPSL. I’d love to live near green mountain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Elevation?

Probably about 30-40' lower than my house. 

Edited February 11 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You must have missed the numerous model runs that were showing some pretty decent cold and lowland snow.  Not sure why everyone is doubting me this morning.

For example....yesterday the ECMWF showed a 39/24 day for SEA.

Never had ensemble support. Just like the last event that ended up effecting Vancouver and Bellingham. That was hoped to be south.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very good chance this month will not end up being anything like strong Nino climo.  Here are maps of this month so far vs the normal for the entire month.  I do know this stuff pretty well.  I think people forget that.

 

 

Not sure why it matters though.   Maybe March or April will be classic Nino?    Maybe we get a strong Nina and one of the months next winter ends up looking nothing like a Nina pattern?    Its not so linear.  

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You must have missed the numerous model runs that were showing some pretty decent cold and lowland snow.  Not sure why everyone is doubting me this morning.

For example....yesterday the ECMWF showed a 39/24 day for SEA.

Did any model runs show anything more than like, an inch of wet slop for places 300 miles north of here?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Did any model runs show anything more than like, an inch of wet slop for places 300 miles north of here?

The EURO showed 6" for Salem on last night's run. Of course when I looked at it I don't think they ever dropped below 34 on the run either, so it was just more phantom stuff. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t mind living out that way either…but with my current job it makes much more sense commute wise to stay on this side of the sound. I’d like to move out towards the EPSL. I’d love to live near green mountain. 

My area has done well the last 5 years. About a 30 inch average. Not to bad. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My area has done well the last 5 years. About a 30 inch average. Not to bad. 

TacomaWx should buy your place when you move east! 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My area has done well the last 5 years. About a 30 inch average. Not to bad. 

Yeah I do like that area, but all the work for me is along the I-5 corridor south of Seattle basically. So for me I’m thinking Buckley, Enumclaw, Ravensdale and North bend areas. It’s not just about snow for me either…I’d just like to live somewhere less crowded. More trees. Snow is a plus though. 

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, ENSO 3.4 region is still like +1.7C. We won't be into neutral conditions until late spring/early summer. 

I wasn't saying the Nino is going to end this month.  I was saying it's losing its grip on the mid latitude pattern....assuming the models are right about the late month pattern.  BTW...the Nino will collapse faster than that.  The cold is just under the surface now.

[snow_wizard]

I kind of wish I had not posted anything this morning.  I'm just frustrated.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I kind of wish I had not posted anything this morning.  I'm just frustrated.

Hopefully we can get something late Feb/early March. How did your area do in March 1960?